Chimera;865089 wrote: ^Red herring and a fallacy; the media world isn't some monolithic creature all answering to the same Murdochian boss. What is claimed or disputed in one part of the world has no bearing to what is accepted in another by plenty of respected and peer-reviewed institutions. General consensus on the figures is clear, you still have to provide something more credible than a map-measuring program. Stop focusing on the fact that it's a map measuring program, it's simple 2000 year old Maths from which I can cite Pythagoras and Euclid. That simple math gives me a population density which doesn't correspond with the cityscape. There aren't any massive slums I've read of in Hargeisa and neither is there any large scale condo development. The data is shoddy at best and nefarious at worst, and there is glaringly obvious evidence to support the former. I'm sorry if you can't see it and are unwilling to question the data at hand.

Chimera;864932 wrote: The onus is not on me to provide anything, evendo I have done so on several ocassions and each time with credible sources, which are most definitely valid. Someone here is disputing a population figure used by hundreds of media-outlets, studies, journals and books, but doesn't give us a single shred of evidence outside of a map-measuring-program to support his opposition to the general concensus. A case of self-importance gone too far. You mean the same media that has been quoting the grossly exaggerated figures for the Kibera slum over the past few years? It is now official: Kibera is not the biggest slum in Africa. The 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census shows that one of the world's most famous slums houses just 170,070 residents, not one million, as previously believed.......While many may dispute these figures, I find it highly unlikely that the margin of error in the census was so huge that the population of a settlement dropped dramatically to one-fifth of its previous estimate in just a few years - unless the drop can be explained by a natural disaster or epidemic.......The more likely scenario is that, in the absence of authoritative statistics, the population figure for Kibera was entirely made up to suit the interests of particular groups. And because no one publicly challenged the figures, a lie became the truth. Source: allAfrica

Chimera;864901 wrote: Why would they do that, especially considering its in reference to an unflattery situation like deforestation and the charcoal trade. You can't compare Canada which probably has more independent 'fact-finding' institutions than the whole of Africa, of course such a Western government wouldn't need to employ its own people directly and can link to sources instead. However in this case, we know independent orgs are non-existent, and the work was done by government officials, just because the data isn't available to us civilians doesn't mean it doesn't exist: I would like to express unreserved gratitude to the NDP team at my Ministry for the sleepless nights they endured to have this Plan researched, developed and written up . I would like to mention in particular the Macro‐Economic Management Office (MEMO) head and team Leader Dr. Hassen Ibrahim Worseme, Dr.Elmi Mahmoud Nur, econometrics expert, Mr. Ahmed Gazali, public investment program expert, Mrs. Kaltun Sh. Hassan, gender expert, Mr. Abdirahman Ahmed Mohamed, macro‐economic expert, Mr. Ali Aideed Farah, social policy expert, Mr. Ahmed Mohamed Diriye, M&E Expert, Mr. Said Jama, Aid Coordination Expert, Mr. Ahmed Abdillahi Nadif, Planning Department Director, and Ms. Hana Mohamed Hersi, Economist. I would also like to thank Mr. Ahmed Dalal Farah, the former Director General, Mr. Abdirashid Mohamed Guleed, the Director General and Mr. Osman Jama Abdillahi, Director of Admin and Finance, for their support.*** Are their qualifications just for show? Is this development nothing but a sideshow? Come'on. Qualifications mean squat when you don't reference your sources. The fact that several of them have completed doctoral studies should should have stressed the importance of citing one's work. There's a reason why you can't get away with it in school, and my pessimism in regards to this document is one of them.

Chimera;864896 wrote: Come'on Blackflash, ''doesn't cite any sources'', are you serious? They are the authorative body in that city and region, they employ economists, survey-men, and factor in the data collected by energy, money transfer and telecom companies, all of which are credited. What gives you the right to delegitimise their figures on the populations they are governing? What surveys have you conducted, what data have collected for us to be convinced? That map-program doesn't cut it. Have you even read the document? This is a development plan based on their monotary policies for the future. A smaller population would exactly benefit them because then the money they collect from taxes would stretch alot further. That's not how it works, if you read any official proposal or document from the Canadian government it'll make reference to Stats Can as well as the specific study/survey done. Stats Can will even detail the dates, methodology and scale of the research study. A government agency can just throw out numbers with out concrete evidence and request a funding for their projects. Example:Dwelling characteristics and household equipment They even cite their own research within their studies. I didn't make the initial claim of the population numbers, the Somaliland government did. They've provided little reference for their claims and I have every right to question them as my hometown is under their governance. They've done well by indicating future plans for a survey, but until then I'll take that as being an admission that they've been pulling stats out of their ***.

Chimera;864892 wrote: I don't do personal estimates, my posts are always based on a source or a study: In Hargeisa, there are about 150-200,000 households -- Ministry of National Planning and Development . Each sack weighs 15‐20 Kg. In Hargeisa, there are about 150‐200,000 households consuming about 9,188 tons of charcoal a month or around 110,000 tons a year. Assuming an average tree produces 150Kg(7‐10 bags) of charcoal, 735,000 trees are cut every year to satisfy current demand for charcoal in Hargeisa. Charcoal trade is a big business. That document doen't cite any sources for most of it's numbers. That may be connected to the fact that it also outlines household surveys in the future as part of the development plan. Also, aren't we coming full circle? I'm arguing against the population claim made by the Somaliland government and all you've done re-assert their claim.

Chimera;864879 wrote: Let's do it this way, since you love math. There are between 150-200,000 households in Hargeisa , the average household has 7-8 members. Before I reply in full, I just need to if that's a personal estimate or if you recovered that info from a primary source (census, survey etc.).

Chimera;864815 wrote: This is neutralised by the high birth rate, and large back migrations. The math really doesn't tell you what you need to know, because there is scholarly evidence from the 1980s that puts the population of Hargeisa at the 250k mark and growing. The city back then was much smaller than it is today: The Hargeisa urban centre has a population of approximately 250,000, and it is one of the fastest growing towns in Somalia. - Horn of Africa: Volume 4 - 1981 There is no reason to conveniently dismiss the various census/surveys taken before the war because of perceived nepotism, especially in the case of Hargeisa, where it would have been in the interest of the dictator to portray it as small little backwater rather than the fast growing 2nd city of Somalia. I don't have to defend Mogadishu, the city with its grid system plan has been estimated to have a population above the 1 million since the 80s, and during the Islamic courts union was estimated to be well over two million. It's strange, yesterday we had a discussion about the 'big family households' in Somalia, and now we are playing 'where is waldo' with the city/town population sizes of that same country. Yes in Mogadishu there are more five people+ households than in Hong Kong, and sizing up maps (not covering the whole city) won't give you a perfect indicator of the density, so the point is moot. Hong Kong has 7,896 highrises. High rises are defined as being at least 11 stories tall. I'll admit that the number of persons per household can play large role but considering the lack of high rises in Hargeisa, do honestly believe that there are enough people crammed in to each home to justify the numbers? I think we'll have to adjourn from this argument as it's clear we'll hold differing views until there is further evidence. I'll leave you with these two photos to give you an idea of why I can't take these numbers at face value:

Chimera;864796 wrote: You edited your original post: [/b] My apologies about the edit, I hadn't factored in the potential number of refugees who have flooded the city over the course of the last year or so. Chimera;864796 wrote: Mogadishu is well over the 2 million figure. You can't hide behind the L.A times on this one, the math tells me what I need to know. Why does everyone forget that a crapton of Somalis have been and still are dying or fleeing the country. I also place little value on old census studies taken during the pre-civil war era as nepotism and corruption provided incentives to pad numbers in certain regions. It could explain why resources weren't allocated properly and famine hit outside the bubble of Mogadishu even during the best of times.

I still can't understand how anyone thinks a population density of 15000/km2 is possible in any Somali city. If you really believe Hargeisa is twice as dense as Hong Kong, then that's your prerogative. I hope you don't think I'm picking on Hargeisa, my family is from Taleh/Las Anod and I scoff at their own clannish estimates.

It's relatively easy to measure the area of a city, the two maps you posted are to scale.You could also use planimeter. The rulers in the bottom left are a measure of 2.4km, a quick glance will tell you that Hargeisa is no more than 8km across in each direction, given a generous area of 64km2, the current population count of 1 million is still improbable. Asmara is essentially the same size as Hargeisa, and even denser.

Hargeisa would have to have a density 1.5 times greater than NYC to have a population of 1million. I don't have to go to Hargeisa to know how ludicrous that is. I'd peg Hargeisa at 250-300 thousand and Mogadishu at 500-700 thousand.

N.O.R.F;864723 wrote: Well there needs to be a basis. A development review and strategy for the future needs to be in place. What is the current population? What is the estimated population rise in the next 30 years? Infrastructure development? etc etc Example http://gsec.abudhabi.ae/Sites/GSEC/Content/EN/PDF/Publications/economic-vision-2030-executive-summary-mandate2,property=pdf.pdf Our population count is one of the first things that needs to be sorted out, how can services be provided if we don't know where to provide them? Tribalism and NGO money making schemes over the last 2 decades have grossly exaggerated Somalia's population. Use plotting apps online such as planimeter to find the area of any city in Somalia and you'll be shocked. Hargeisa is about twice the size of Rexdale and we're expected to believe there are a million people living there? Same goes for Mogadishu, Las Anod, Bosaso etc. Unless we're stacking people 50 high or building secret underground cities. I'd say expect Somalia's population to be somewhere between 5-7 million.

What's with these questionable old threads being resurrected as of late? It's as if the sewers of this site are overflowing.

Chimera;864451 wrote: Pathetic, when Guerilla gets his entire argument dissected and obliterated he resorts to shock-value. Why ignore the fact that when there is no conflict the children across the country look like this?: Why ignore the fact that across the West and China where people engage in family planning, you have millions of people that are homeless or the millions of girls that were burried for their gender? I don't need to post shocking images to back my arguments they can hold their own. I'm beginning to see a pattern with atheists, not only do you guys not have respect for other people's faiths, you don't even respect the 'weak' and 'unfortunate' amongst us, and instead dismiss them as creatures that should have never been born, pathetic. Silly of me to think this was an actual discussion. You think a lack of appreciation for the value of life is the reasoning behind family planning? I don't think family planning is the end all cure to child starvation, but I'd argue the atheists that many here choose to vilify value these children's lives more than the 'it's okay, they'll be in heaven anyway' crowd.

Timur;864389 wrote: These are 60+ year old people who languished in Nairobi until they decided to lose as one unit instead of individually lol. If ten people with zero dollars put their money in a bag, does it equal ten dollars or zero dollars? That's the idiocy of this pointless "bloc" that the article mentions. None of them were going to get a single vote, so it won't change. But I encourage these candidates anyway, it's a free $10,000 fee towards the Somali government.

^ +1 The National Geographic and History Channel have been in the gutter for the last decade.

N.O.R.F;864376 wrote: A man with 20 kids has given LIFE to 20 kids. If thats all he has given those 20 kids, isn't that a blessing in itself? Indeed. I hold many trophies for the simple act of ejaculation. What a wonderful achievement! My neighbourhood must be the Vatican as I see many 'blessed' 15 year old girls.

Bluelicious;864387 wrote: What is wrong with people having alot of kids it's their personal choice. Shouldn't we all be minding our own business and doing our own family planning instead of doing the family planning of others. There is nothing to discuss here since it's a personal choice. You can't force your beliefs on to others. I agree. There's nothing wrong with having a large family, many will react emotionally to the sight of starving children and end up coming up with band-aid solutions. People have always died in Somalia, many people will continue to die in Somalia and the only thing that'll fix that is large scale population collapse or economic growth.

Apophis;863960 wrote: Why? Ps: Has anyone seen Idiocracy? I have. It`s a hilarious film until you start realizing it`s dead serious. I'm of the opinion that economic development and education will sort out many of these problems. Overpopulation is a symptom of poverty, not the cause of it.

A great day for the Ummah! This will surely resolve every problem in Egypt!

If red herrings and straw man arguments were a commodity, this board would be NASDAQ.

It's closer geographically, but it's cultural make up is predominately Yemeni.

Merca was taken recently wasn't it? 2012: End of the world? Or perhaps just the rebirth of Somalia?

Apophis;862766 wrote: ^^It could be worse, she could be a Homeopathist ( mix one molecule with a solar system of water and you have a cure!!) . More water = a more potent solution Although Chiropractors are moving even further towards mysticism as they're incorporating 'Chakras' and the like.

Is there really such a thing as a simple life? Having a large home in a rural region provides it's own set of challenges.