Illyria

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Everything posted by Illyria

  1. Could you think of one 'good' thing your Mujaahid has done? Pause for a second, and think about what I mean by 'good': that which bears true value, which advances humanity.
  2. If they were able to organise Local District elections from Jan - May, you do not think they could manage the Parliamentary and Presidential from Jul - Dec? There are no limitations as to the number of political parties, nor is there a term expiration. Agreed, of all the systems of governance tried, and tested, thus far there has not been any system better than Democracy with the main reason being: it has an embedded self-adjusting mechanism, where if a leader abuses, debases, and/or sulls it, the next leader could redress, as has been observed in the US with Drumpf. That is not to say it is perfect. It is actually the opposite, what you want is let the general public elect their representatives, and leaders in that if a rep., or a leader is found unwanting, it is no else's fault, but the public. The alternative, as is found in Islam, is allowing 'a3yan - technocrats and elites' lead, and govern. Alternatively, China's system of governance might be desirable, a variant of democracy with a twist, where eight political parties compete, elect their representative to the Central Body, which in turn elects the Chairman of the Central Party, the CCP, who is the Leader, or President of the nation. This ushers in stability, coherence, and sustainability. Of course there are ills to consider.
  3. There are so many mentally ill people out and about in the triangle, some even in public service.
  4. Not quite. You are blinding the commentary by injecting novice analyses, popular amongst those, who lack intimacy of the local PL politics. Let me throw you a life line, for I am in a generous mood this evening. For example, the 3 major political parties are all from Qardho, and no one seems to bat an eye in the Local District elections. KAAH is mostly popular in Sanaag & Mudug whereas Mideeye derives its greatest support in Bari, albeit enjoys nominal support in Mudug. With Nugaal, their opposition flow from the fact that Deni was their chosen candidate, and he dumped them a year into his term, forming his own team independent of AaranJaan; further, the likes of Cawad are joining the political fray a tad bit late, and wanted to be accommodated outside of the political process. RunCad is the local party in Nugaal, but enjoys some, if negligible support outside of Garowe, not even extended to Burtinle. With that being said, now do you see how flawed, lopsided your analyses was. Khatumo is a matter pending due process, and eventual configuration, where it shall be a Federal Member State. Horgale has no say in its dealings.
  5. The author is simply discrediting PEC, Courts, and the Election system on the basis of their being created by Deni, which is not a sound argument. Further, the author is only regurgitating old debating points by the opposition, with most of the points he raises being conjecture, in other words, the only argument, which bears validity is Deni's mismanagment of the Federal MPs, and his tyranical tendencies, but from the sound of his reconciliatory speech, and recent actions, one could argue Deni, the rookie from a few yeears ago, has learnt a few lessons on the job, and is now a shrewd operator, the biggest lesson being compromising, and making deals behind the scene. One must not just write for the sake of doing so.
  6. The likes of Sir Mo Farah, and Cabdi Bile should be leading, and helping young aspiring athletes back home instead of recording joining the critique mob. Does any know why she was even there?
  7. Here is a summary. This is an eye opening, a brilliant piece of investigative reporting by C/razaq Terra, who provides an insight as to how the Fed. government mismanaged the fight against Al Shabaab, but even goes insofar as to suggest there being a seditious ploy to dismantle the Somali Army. His scoping and timeline are precise, if detailed with May 2023 being one of the deadliest, if not the worse. He hones in on where it all went wrong, as he compares the initial gains in the latter half of 2022 versus considerable losses in the first half of 2023, when it all went awry. His conclusion: a) There was a deliberate plan to sabotage the Somali Army whilst feeding Al Shabaab inside Army intel, b) A seditious ploy to destroy the Somali Army. Losses & Casualties: Casualties on the Somali Army side incl. ATMIS: Total deaths: 1,394 218 are of ATMIS majority of whom are of Uganda. Wounded: 554 Majority of senior Somali Army officers had been killed. Al Shabaab recaptured 85% of battle areas previously captured by the Somali Army. Weaponry captured by Al Shabaab: 365 heavy armory / armoured vehicles 14 heavy lorries for freight and cargo 16 ambulances 8 water tankers 12 luxury army officer vehicles 150 armoured vehicles destroyed, 82 of them equipped with surveillance & telecom equipment, radars, signal jammers etc 45 equipped with GPS.
  8. I concur, never trust a politician, albeit the most notable element of his speech was its reconciliatory tone, and nature. Not belligerent even if he made noteworthy remarks against the Fed. government.
  9. In his August 1st speech, Deni stated: Election shall be held on time, No intention of seeking extension, Intend to hold the election on Jan 8th based on political parties, Ready for election, and public service, Promise a timely and honourable transfer of power if unsuccessful, Commend and support reer SSC for the unity and self-determination. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=212612974761621
  10. Wait a second, what just happened? Did she? No, she did not? Having met with some Minsters, and Directors, I could say with confidence this speaks to a wider malaise, in the state of the nation, in ever discipline of ever technical category.
  11. I have been wondering why is there not a single rational person in the triangle? Even C/Qadir Jirde does not seem with it. They all seem unhinged, delusional, stoned, apostatised, or in a self-induced stupor.
  12. I concur much needs to be ironed out, but this I think is a good starting point, yet again the opposition has to brought aboard. I actually do not subscribe to the 5% threshold, and think if anything 2% is more than conditional enough. The same way I did not agree when UKIP gained 3.8m votes in 2015, and over half a million votes in 2017, but could not get a single seat in the Commons in 2017, and just a seat in 2015. On the number of political parties, I see no difference between 3 or 5, and if fractions are to be had, so be it. In democracy, nothing is worse than 2 political parties, as is the case in the US, albeit Independents could run, and more the merrier with coalition parties much better, as is the case in most European countries incl. Germany. I suppose you think the Electoral College in the US is also a good control measure. It might had some value in the 1700s, but I see no value in it today, if anything it is more of a hindrance to direct democracy. Addendum: Thus far, the fear of tribal association has been unfounded, as the three leading parties (KAAH, Mideeye, and SinCad) are of the same district (Qardho), yet KAAH is more popular in Sanaag & Mudug whereas Mideeye challenges SinCad in Bari, and KAAH in Mudug. Postscript: You may not know this, but the model SL adopted, incl. the 3 political parties, 10 year expiration etc, had been tested in El Salvador, and Nigeria by InterPeace and NDI, organisations, which assist Somalia with their democratisation process. you should glance at Gees's last book (name escapes me), in which he discusses the whats, and hows.
  13. TPEC announces 8 political parties. Youth party did not quite make the cut.
  14. It is interesting Jimcaale now openly aligning himself with the FGS. A notable slip, which speaks to his thinking, is saying "madaxweynaha waqtigiisu dhamaaday". Quite telling as to his non-dictum. And here is the Madasha, the political wing, wanting to remain relevant.
  15. Are there no wise traditional elders left in SL? When political leaders lack foresight, and the public is awfully naive to the point of stupidity, the end result is terribly what we see.
  16. Two killed incl. 2nd in Command of the RRU units (bullets seem to love HJ senior officers) with many injured.
  17. Here is the same dawdar before & after. Quickly goes from "it will take no more than 3 days to clear them [Jamaahiirta] all out" to "no one can stand in their way, and it will take them half an hour to reach Burco". https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=247522658111458
  18. Here is Oodweyne slowly coming to the realisation that the jig is up. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=988801872463612
  19. I thought so when I last visited both cities with Burco looking a bit depressed, albeit would note Borama lost population post SSC insurgence with many relocating to Jigjiga and Dirir Dhaba. Hargeysa is densely populous, if not as populous as Xamar, and I think it is much more than estimated, albeit without census, one could never go by voting numbers, which are always much lower, as has been observed in mature democracies, for instance in the US primary elections, just over 40% cast their votes with some rural states not even reaching the 20% mark. Presidential election have been in the 60 percentile in recent years. From what I have observed, Bosaso (Bander Qassim) is busier, with over half a million residents in city proper, with the number growing if surrounding villages are included, and might be slightly larger than Borama.
  20. Caarre is an idiot, who sold out his people. Fun facts about him: he was being financed by (let us not say by whom), and when the financing source was dislodged, incoming team, which had business dealings with Biixi & Co. dropped Caarre, to force an agreement with Biixi. Instead of engaging resistance forces, he left in the middle of the night abandoning young men in the wilderness, and absconding with the settlement. As part of the deal, he was handed an account number with a balance of a quarter of a million dollars at Dhiigshiil. He quickly used up half of it for a fresh set of teeth, a restaurant in Turkey, and a home, but the rest of the funds had been confiscated soon thereafter. In a nutshell, he is more of a liability, and empty shell to the resistance.
  21. Xasan Caynaanshe explains the root cause of the resistance from Gacanlibaax to Burco to Daalo to Ceerigaabo. Old SNM guards incl. Casayr C/Qaadir on the march. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=125854253905153