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Everything posted by Illyria
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The best strategy for HY now is to build bridges with H@rti, and not be used as fodder for Muse's foolish adventures. The worse game plan is to engage in a direct tribal conflict with the euphoric Khalas brigades when they have neither the reliable backing nor the wherewithal to win. It would be suicidal at best. But then again, neither you nor Muse could care less. We do!
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In my trips to Xamar, I always like to engage the youth, elderly, and common man / woman on the streets of this once pearl of a city, and to my astonishment, people come across as if they are content with the chaos. I can not explain as to the reasons, but it is a phenomenon not found elsewhere in the country. Could it be: a) Due to the fact they have been farmers for far too long, they no longer have the nomadic spirit? b) So tired of conflict, they have become so submissive, too far gone beyond redemption? c) Or have they always been like that? d) Or have they been mixing with the bantus, their genes have been diluted?
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A two-prong strategy is needed to prevent conflict getting out of hand: a) On the political front, wise heads must prevail to understand Muse Bixi wants the Sool conflict to spread to Sanaag, which serves his interest; political leaders on the Makhir & SSCKH side must engage the locals, exhaust political machinations led by all sides of Sanaag natives, and prevent Hargeysa-centric agenda, of which sole intent is to breath live into Muse's dying reign, being exploited at the cost of the natives. b) As and when politics had failed, then it is for the Generals to assume the leadership. See, other Somalis have moved on a long time ago, accepted we are all better off to live together, in harmony, and must leave clan chauvinism in the past with the exception of two of the Habro, who seem stagnated in a time-capsule of the 90s era, where they have bought into their own ill-formed myth of being a superpower. Ceerigaabo is like any other shared city in Somali territories, is divided into two halves with HY (M Carre & S Yonis) & HJ on one side, and H@rti (Warsan, Dhul***hante, and Gahayle (MJ), and Ogaden (Jibrahil of Bah Gheri) on another, and with the largest inhabitants of the city being reer Maakhir and HY respectively; reer Sool & Ceel Afweyn come next, and are more recent inhabitants with latter least represented, yet have been desperately trying to replace HY in Sanaag & elsewhere in Hargeysa. Any attempt to belie as to the said facts borders schizophrenic delusion, which the likes of XX sadly suffer from. If and when Generals take the stage, then the ground work will determine the sad eventuality. How will you supplies reach Ceerigaabo? The only route is by Garadag, and there is no chance in hell for that route to remain active. Do you know how far Ceerigaabo is to Bosaso? 190 miles with half of CeelDahir - Ceerigaabo road on smooth ground. Compare that with Ceerigaabo to Berbera of over 300 miles, 2/3rds of which is mountainous rough roads. Besides, other than the Western front, Ceerigaabo is surrounded by H@rti terrain, villages, and districts. Do bear in mind, Garacad played a major factor in winning the Sool conflict, and so shall Bosaso, should that sad eventuality comes to pass. I am hopeful wise heads and mature minds shall prevail and spare Somali sons from perishing for clan chauvinism. Postscript: Two points of reflection: a) Awalites with their sidekicks from Ceel Afweyn sought to neuter HY rendering them non-entity in SL economics, politics, military etc, and now, here you are, boasting as to their gallantry and strength as if they would heed your nonsense. b) The 1992/3 4-partite social contract amongst main communities in Sanaag had been breached more than once by reer Ceel Afweyn, who as dim as they are did not realise the game Awalites have been playing at their peril.
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Khalas brigade on the move under the leadership of SSCKH Ayatullah (Ahmed Karaash), and Ceerigaabo now brimming with Khalas-birthed prospect. Let us hope its residents see reason, leave clan chauvinism behind, and accept shifting reality on the ground: a shared city amongst many. Postscript: Conflicting reports are coming out as to the root cause of today's incident where a Sr police officer was wounded.
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PM Abiy Ahmed Declares War on Tigray: First bullets fired
Illyria replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
What does this all mean? Is there a region outside of the Somali region which is not being caught up in some sort of violent conflict? -
More than 50 cargo trucks heading to Tuur-dibi from Garacad. https://fb.watch/ucjH6rMGw9/
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In the greater scheme of things, this is very simple; Somalia had no institutions for so long, and now that it is beginning to formulate some, Aviation in this instance, it is trying to reclaim its authority over its territories, assume its role, function, and responsibilities; of course, challenges are aplenty, and this is just one of them. The squabbles and public spats we observe arise due to poor proficiency on the part of our civil servants, or lack thereof. Nothing complicated. The more capable, efficient, and proficient at the Executive level our institutions, the less interference from rogue agencies and nations: Ethiopia being numero uno. Even if such interference arises, or is attempted, the right institutions manned by the right, qualified people shall respond, and the average person would hardly know about it, let alone be concerned. We have come a long way, and in 20 - 30 years times, we shall have sound institutions with the right people at the helm. Wa billahi nasta'inu!
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I want to hear how centrists led by MMA, Galbeedi et al spin this one. -------------------------------- Allah yarhamu Cali Khalid Galaydh ayaa laga hayay in Muqdisho dalka laga Kala goynayo. Anaguna waan ognahay. Somaali ha is barato. https://twitter.com/AsmAwdal/status/1826756887712604245
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PM Xamza C Barre meets the youth in Xamar. Mr Xamza, surrounded by impressionable young people, begins his responses with Aayat min al Qur'an, yet flagrantly dodges, fibs, and misleads the youth. a) At min. 29+ on taxes, VAT or otherwise, he says laws have been passed. I have not seen a tax bill passed by the Parliament, in its two Chambers, and not found on their portal. How is it legal? Now, the point of the VAT being at mere 5% in comparison to other nations, let us ask the PM, how may countries pay the VAT in USD? How much is 5% in Bir or in Kenyan Shilling in USD? He needs a lesson in 101 economics. Where is the Corporate tax? Are Corporations exempt from taxes? b) At min. 25+ on elections, he does not have a clue, and has not read the Fed. Constitution. Some people say "he begins: the Interior Minister must conduct elections ... and appends ... the Constitution provides that". An absolute travesty. At the heart of the Fed. Constitution, Elections are carried out at, by, and for the FMSs, and not by the FGS. FGS has an observatory and consultative role. Let us remember, he and his Boss not only opposed, but interfered with Local District elections in PL. c) At min. 37+ on the infamous MoU, he is an amateur just like his Boss, who to his credit, finally framed the discussion accurately last week. The correct approach in negotiations is: - The S Galbeed matter must be on the table. Let Ethiopia agree to give up occupied Somali territories, then we could discuss access to the sea. Let the Habasha be on their heels rather on the war front. At min.53+ on SSCKH, he throws under the buss hiding his Boss's condition: to recognise SSCKH as an FMS, bring Makhir. Let us remind him, it was he, who sidestepped Constitutional provisions and guidelines of the formation of a State, when he recognsed a region and two districts as a FMS. d) At min. 1:31 He denies the existence of Awdal movement, and instead promotes SL. Galbeedi, what have you and your Awdal State colleagues been doing in Xamar in the last 6 - 12 months if not walking corridors of power to promote Awdal State? e) At min. 19:53, he mischaracterises the dispute between PL & FGS, and lies to the youth by reducing it to a personality conflict. Here are the 10 Articles of contention between PL & FGS. Pray, Mr Xamza, explain to the youth, who articulated said 10 points. Hint: There was a 9-member Committee. Articles of contention between PL & FGS: 1) Develop clear and strict safeguards of the national sovereignty with SSC-Khatumo question at its heart. 2) Completion of the Constitution, where guiding principles of power-sharing and consensus, participation, inclusivity, politically or otherwise, are adhered to. 3) Devise an agreed upon inclusive national security programme. 4) Agree upon a natural resources management and sharing plan. 5) Delineation of, and separation of Federal-State powers, and collaboration of institutions, as outlined in the Constitution. 6) Create an agreed upon National judiciary system, defining Federal-State functions and roles. 7) Formulate a transparent National economic and treasury programme with defined, and agreed upon guidelines. 8 ) What form or type of Election at the Federal level to be adopted. 9) Determine as to the status of the Capital city, along with its rules and regulations. 10) Map out a political resolution on contested issues prior to any Constitutional amendments are effected, and presented to Federal institutions. Full interview: https://youtu.be/fGMMW_HW1hM
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I think you are failing to grasp my point, and now I see wherein lies the glitch: you are having trouble understanding my position, or for what I am advocating, hence your lacklustre, if hastily rehearsed responses non-applicable to the discussion at hand, unless of course you are mistaking me for someone else, or are bringing in a side conversation you have been engaged in. Or is this a classic case of ESL failure? Here, you are levelling against me of holding a position contrary to the one I have been arguing for. Pray, why? I have always argued in favour of SSCKH self-Admin. The same applies to Makhir. And if the two form an FMS, I am also for it, in fact I am promoting it. Or did you miss all of that by a century whilst feasting upon a badly simmered "muufo"? By the way, words like "aad la ordaysay" are infantile, and rather immature adding no meaningful value to the discourse. What do you think I have been advocating for? Again, you missing the nub of the discussion by a century. Surely, you do not expect me to teach you how best interpret, and decipher mature discourse, do you? Again, re-read, slowly this time, and if need be, consult chatGP to decipher its meaning.
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Garaad Dagaalka Galla's vision is crystal clear, and he will not be repeating the mistakes of the Galaydh era, where he was misguided by the politics of the day. He is much the wiser now, and bearing the scars under his eyes. In this victory tour, he is distancing himself from said mistakes now championed by Timacadde, A/Rashid et al in Xamar. If history is anything to go by, where Hashi, Cashara, and Yusuf H Sacid could not agree on basic principles, I very much doubt Firdhiye & Jamal could, as they are not even on the same wavelength, let alone principle. As people, we are not quite there yet, and at a minimum, it shall take half a century to realise strength in unity. It only comes at the realistion of the cost of disunity. It can not be rushed, or taught, and must take its natural course.
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Besides the Disapora fervour, what is the sentiment on the ground for Makhir and SSCKH to form an FMS?
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I think you will realise you and I agree on more than you may realise, but are influenced by varying principles and history. Let us concentrate upon the more practical matters re: our seas and land being under a threat from Axmaaro, and revisit the theoretical exercise post coast clearance, shall we?
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Bloody centrists are all the same. That retort was well expected. Unlike tiny UAE, Turkey has empirical aspiration to reinstate its once glory days of ruling over the Muslim world, could not care less about Somalis, and has only one interest at heart: that of Turkey. Check Gaza. In the current saga, Turkey's interests are more in line with those of Ethiopia (120m market of potential consumers) than that of Somalia, and would not blink to hawk you under the table, but as a die-hard centrist, you will not see that so long as the lights are on in Xamar. Eff that. Let us concentrate on the periphery i.e. Kismayo, Baydhaba, Beledweyn, Jawhar all the way to Zeylac. You can not see past the tip of your twisted, southwardly willy, but fall back on your tired, abused "nationalist" card to buttress your ill-advised loyalty.
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My dear Mr Galbeedi, your suspicions are just that, but then again, as reer Galbeed, you are the classic one-eyed goblin long in the tooth mistaking the trees for the bush. No "direct" non-Somali funds had been invested in the project thus far, and the Wadaagsan financial statements and disclosures are shared with the investors and majority shareholders at its annual general meeting. I do share the economic concerns, like most Somalis. Postscript: There is a new phenomenon within Somali political commentators: UAE is the evil, Turkey is the shining star for all matters Somali. Reason: UAE is aligned with SL & PL whereas Turkey is aligned with Xamar-centrist politics. This is more popular with neophyte pamphleteers and their recruits. Ma annaa la ii qarshaa, mindiyo laygu qali doono! Yaynaan isu soo humbaalayn adiga oo afku-dhimbille ah, siyaasada kalena walhinaya. Waa iga kaftan & dardaaran.
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Approach, if wise diplomats and sharp political leaders were in charge of our affairs: a) Lead with the SL deal with FGS acting as the guarantor, and final authority, i) Bring SL into the fold, as the State (FMS), ii) Bring reer Awdal into the negotiations, as stakeholders. b) Tie the case of S Galbeed to the "access to sea" deal, and into the conversation, where Ethiopia shall legally agree S Galbeed being Somali territory. i) You want sea? Give up our occupied land! Check mate. Let Abiy chew on that. Unfortunately, we neither have wise nor intelligent political leaders managing our affairs.
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Not a regional or qabiil element, you dimwit, but a recognisable societal property unique to the Somalis. You would not know what I am referring to you, thus does not apply to you.
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No wonder you could never stick with the flow of natural conversation, xitaa your brain is not wired like the average Somali. It explains the disjoint.
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