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Everything posted by Illyria
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Was he this judicious, deliberative, receptive, cognisant, and reflective when he was at Villa Xamar? he is making sense.
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Can Somalia win its war against al-Shabab? | UpFront
Illyria replied to Xaaji Xunjuf's topic in Politics
AS retakes Bacaadweyne, Camaara, and Shabeelow. Balcad & Cadale feared to be next. If accurate, then it is as predicted. https://fb.watch/qLGJ9GAwd-/ --------------------------------------------- Hudson institute, a DoD outlet released its September report. Its conclusion: Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity. Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations. [ ] In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak. [ ] At present this looks to be the best-case scenario, though unfortunately not the most likely one. But policymakers would do well to consider scenarios that might be acceptable to their interests rather than buy into unrealistic claims about the impending defeat of Africa’s most powerful jihadist group. https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Faltering+Lion+-+James+Barnett+Sep+2023.pdf -
Next Ethiopian War: Eritrea/Amhara vs Tigray/Abiy
Illyria replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
With its main three States (Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo (less extent) ) on fire, and roadblocks popping up outside of Addis, how does Abiy plan to wriggle out of this inferno? I can not wait for the whole bloody thing to blow up in his spotty face. -
In the old days when Somali media used to be informative with heavyweights at its helm. M Xarbi's role discussed. Literature alone by the likes of Qarshe, Naaji etc is on a different level. (correction: I initially thought this was the BBC).
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So, victims even when they are the transgressors? Are they being serious? Instead of hiding their criminal enterprise, they are openly brandishing the picture of a murderer seeking revenge in foreign capitals? How come no one, other than Bixiye, speaks of or campaigns for the highest prized prisoner, the army intel chief, Gadhka Yogolka?
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I once had a conversation with the late abu Xadra (Hadraawi) about politics, democracy, and elections in SL, and he laughed and said: "we are a long, long way away from home".
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Is that Zaynab Cige or Nicma Yasin?
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Next Ethiopian War: Eritrea/Amhara vs Tigray/Abiy
Illyria replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
So, you are a bone fide Somali after all. Well done. -
Next Ethiopian War: Eritrea/Amhara vs Tigray/Abiy
Illyria replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
What is your initial reaction when you read some news like this? -
This is not new, started a while ago, and UAE is more engaged with the FMSs.
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Can Somalia win its war against al-Shabab? | UpFront
Illyria replied to Xaaji Xunjuf's topic in Politics
For the public good, and best outcome, of course negotiate with both SL & AS, as was the advice the US/EU offered XSM in his first trip to the US before he initiated a war he knew he could neither win nor had the support, militarily, logistically, or financially. Let not the aesthetics of Xamar seduce you, as AS is very much present, in control of its vital organs, business or otherwise, laying low with their leaders still in the city, collecting dues at the airport, port, even government officials, and could easily disrupt taking over the city, but the question is: could they hang on to it. Recall how everyone thought Thaliban were dead and buried, yet it took them a week to take over Afghanistan. Same tactics and methods in play here. -
Very kind of you. You raised very good points of how best move forward, and I think under the right leadership, a viable solution is nearer than ever, and the more stable and capable FGS institutions get, the weaker the hand of SL, and eventually its bargaining chips shall have been diminished, which will make harmonisation much easier. Again, under the right leadership. Addendum: I am actually of the view of adopting the China-Hong Kong-Taiwan approach, where we let political configurations as it, till comes the time, where confidence and mutual public good had been had in all concerned parties in the Somali peninsula. No need for rushed or forced solutions, just let matters take their natural course. Things are rapidly changing for the better.
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Can Somalia win its war against al-Shabab? | UpFront
Illyria replied to Xaaji Xunjuf's topic in Politics
No need for a war between Somalis / Muslims, besides the US bogus war on terror died with Bush Jr. Move the effing on from being camiiliin. -
The biggest threat to nation states are corrupt political leaders. Their biggest weapon is to subjugate the populace, and abuse their powers in the name of national security. Why does the public revolt: against injustice. What do just nation states do: address injustices, perceived or otherwise. What do broken, corrupt leaders do: destabilise to justify their methods by imprisoning, killing, uprooting the public.