Illyria

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Everything posted by Illyria

  1. When we thought we have seen the worse of it, it takes a turn for the far worse.
  2. And the search for surviving / fleeing Dacish leaders / fighters goes on in remote parts of Bari.
  3. At Buq-Caleed, a water purification system, equipment for a complete surgical theatre, and cache of weapons incl. sniper rifles buried underground had been discovered.
  4. More underground bunkers discovered.
  5. A slap in the face. It is as if SW is in a competition in pleasing Habasha. The man has no shame, and is pretending as if he has swagger.
  6. Public support for the troops continues. Badhan provides a new batch of 590 livestock.
  7. This is relevant re Hudson institute, a DoD outlet released its September report. Its conclusion: Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity. Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations. [ ] In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak. [ ] At present this looks to be the best-case scenario, though unfortunately not the most likely one. But policymakers would do well to consider scenarios that might be acceptable to their interests rather than buy into unrealistic claims about the impending defeat of Africa’s most powerful jihadist group.
  8. Another video: Showing the concrete houses that the #ISIS terrorists had in the Buqa-Caleed base in the #Calmiskaad mountains, which were taken over by the #Puntland Counter-Terrorism Forces.
  9. The hunt for Dacish remnants continues.
  10. Garnaqsi, saadaal, milicsi, iyo hogatusaalayn: Axmed Madoobe.
  11. Official MAP: The operation covered 315 km from Kalabayr to Dhasan. It began in Kalabayr, moving through visible areas. Phase 1 included Kalabayr -Turmusaale, and Phase 2 ended in Dhasan. Today, February 28, 2025, the third phase of the operation has begun.
  12. Warbixin Wajiga Saddexaad ee Hawlgalka Ciribtirka Argagixisada ISIS Wajigaan saddexaad weli dawladdu warbixin rasmi ah kama bixin, mana sheegin meesha uu ku dhammaan doono, laakiin waxaa cad in uu yahay qaybtii saddexaad ee Hawgalka Hillaac. Masaafada uu Hawlgalka Hillaac, wajigiisii labaad, socday waxa ay ahayd Kalabayr illaa Dhasaan oo ah masaafo dhan 315 KM. Maanta oo ah 28-ka Febraayo waxaa biloowday wajiga saddexaad ee Hawlgalka Hillaac. Wajigaan saddexaad ciidanku waxa ay maanta gaareen deegaanka Dhaadaar iyo xarumo hore ay u duqeeyeen saaxiibada Puntland, waxaana laga helay meydad fuuray iyo hub ay kamidyihiin gantaalo, qoryaha fudud iyo diiradaha habeenkii wax lagu arko. Dhinaca deegaanka Uur Caleed iyo Dhaban Qooxle oo ahayd xaruntii ISIS Uur Caleed oo hore ayana loo duqeeyey waxaa sidoo kale laga helay meydad fuuray, dameero iyo saanad ciidan oo u badan hubka fudud. Wajiga saddexaad ayaa loo badinayaa in uu yahay qarar iyo buuraley, gaadiidkuna noqon doono awr iyo dameero. Daljir kala soco wararkii ugu danbeeyey ee Hawlgalka Hillaac, wajigiisa saddexaad. Daljir Media
  13. Hawlgalka Hillaac wajigiisa saddexaad oo gaaray qararka Uur Caleed Ciidamada Difaaca Puntland ayaa maanta gacanta ku dhigay awr tobeneeya ah oo u raran argagixisada ISIS, argagixisadiina ka dhigay wax cararay iyo wax la laayey. Hawlgalka wajigiisa saddexaad ayaa u badan deegaano aan gaadiidku mari karin oo wada buuro iyo qarar ah. FG: Muuqaalka waxaa duubay askartii qabatay awrta oo u badan askar ah reer Sool Daljir Media
  14. Al-Shabaab is gearing up to seize Mogadishu and establish its own government within the next two weeks, capitalizing on the ongoing political tensions within the Federal Government and the capital itself. Intel Briefing: 1. Al-Shabaab has stationed 3,000 foot soldiers and 200 elite units near the Dara Salaam, Afgooye, and Jaseera areas. 2. Their strategy involves capturing Mogadishu and enticing several ministers from President Hassan’s administration, as well as parliamentarians, to join them in forming a new government. 3. According to military intelligence sources, this operation is set to unfold within the next two weeks. Intel Judgement: Al-Shabaab has already taken control of several key towns in Middle Shabelle, and the President of Hirshabelle has fled Jowhar, seeking refuge in Ali Guduud village after striking a deal with Al-Shabaab to take over Jowhar and Mahadayweyne districts. Furthermore, Al-Shabaab has captured the Balcad district, just 30 kilometers from Mogadishu. They appear to be emulating the Syrian model, aiming to force the current government into negotiations and secure a 30% share of government ministers and the Prime Minister post. President Hassan Sheikh's administration is grappling with domestic political challenges, including the normalization of relations with Ethiopia and internal conflicts with Federal Member States and opposition parties. This turbulent environment has created a fertile ground for Al-Shabaab's maneuvers. If the Somali government fails to respond decisively, we could witness a dramatic downfall of the current regime within the next two months.