http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2011/11/ethiopia-kenya-and-somalia More but not merrier Nov 28th 2011, 16:41 by J.L. | WAJIR KENYA sent thousands of troops to southern Somalia a month ago to wipe out the jihadist Shabab militia. It wants to establish a buffer state in the south, perhaps to be called Jubaland, in order better to protect its national interests. These include boosting safety for tourists and increasing trade, especially cattle imports from Somalia and exports to Somalia of Qat, a mild narcotic. A peaceful Jubaland is also a precondition of the planned construction of a multi-billion dollar port and town in the region near Lamu, where foreigners have recently been killed and kidnapped by Somali gangs. It should improve Kenya's chances of selling oil and gas concessions there too. The operation is not yet a success. Sceptics say the Kenyans have spent more time Tweeting than fighting. The Shabab have cockily said the Kenyans are free to leave before things get serious. Kenya claims to have held back on an all-out advance on the key Shabab-held port of Kismayo to wait for the rains to end and to secure gains by building trust with local clan militias and businessmen. There is clearly support for the Kenyans in several conquered areas. In some places the Shabab forces have been notably quiet. Tellingly, their masked fighters seen in parades appear to be boys; the men have slipped away. Some degree of escalation is almost certain. Kenyan victories in Somalia are likely be met with a Shabab bombing campaign in Kenya and beyond. Vigilance of security guards in Kenya is already faltering in the face of the country's happy-go-lucky outlook. The best chance of averting carnage in the Kenyan capital Nairobi looks to be luck and jihadist incompetence. At least incompetence is possible after Western and Ethiopian intelligence campaigns of recent years have successfully targeted Shabab bomb-makers and commanders; several would-be Shabab “martyrs” have accidentally blown themselves up this week. Then again, other bombers have succeeded in setting off blasts in the Somali capital, Mogadishu. Besides, such thin hopes are no consolation for tourists and investors who want to visit Kenya. The Shabab are being squeezed from all sides—by American drones from the air, by Somali government forces and African Union troops (mostly Ugandan) in Mogadishu, and by Ethiopia, which says it may reinforce the AU force by pushing in from the West. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's prime minister, dislikes the idea of Kenya having the upper hand in Somalia. But descriptions of Ethiopia's deployment are probably exaggerated. Ethiopia never really left after occupying swathes of western Somalia in 2006, before supposedly withdrawing completely in 2009. In fact, Ethiopia has built up a network of spies, military trainers and proxy forces that do its bidding. It has long continued to run reconnaissance missions across the border. Somali hatred of Ethiopia may also be overplayed. Along the border at least, on the evidence of Baobab's travels there, many Somalis seem to prefer the Ethiopians to the maniacal Shabab. Mr Meles will probably order commando units, perhaps in AU green helmets, to advance on Shabab positions. At that point the jihadists will have to decide how much territory they can afford to defend. The Somali Transitional Federal Government will probably squander any territorial gains with rent seeking and squabbling. Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali is competent, but President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed has become a liability. Mr Ahmed is torn between pragmatically allowing in foreigners, and retaining a nationalist Islamist sentiment. The TFG's tenuous position is not helped by Kenya's reaching out to Israel for help on stamping on the Shabab. Photos of Kenyan and Israeli officials glad-handing in Jerusalem recently have played prominently on jihadist websites. The Kenyan pact with Israel has shocked some Kenyan Muslims. They have largely been supportive of moving into Somalia, but if the campaign flounders, people may become more sympathetic to the jihadists' message.

STOIC, I didnt say harm Somalia. I said when they have to choose between allegiance to Mogadishu and Nairobi. They have and will for sure always choose the interest of Kenya. The current situation is a proof of that. Xiinfaniin, I am talking about all Somali-Kenyan citizens, not a particular clan. The same goes for Djiboutians, Somali-Ethiopians. Laakinse clearly you cant think beyond qabiil.

Ilyria, you should read this thread before trying to take position that Xiinfaniin already admitted earlier.

xiinfaniin;934466 wrote: ^^Perhaps those you term Somali Kenyans , are more Somali than you. And yet they are Kenyans as well. Which would mean that in Jubbaland, that is bordering Kenya their loyalty will go to Kenya. Weather its the interest of oil concessions or any other interest. The current rush to form a Jubbaland that has the support of Kenya and not of Somalia, proves my point.

xiinfaniin;934458 wrote: The 'wiil Somali Kenyati ah' is the real deal. If you are from the shallow ends of Somalia's Clan Pool, do not envy the rise of noble folks, Carafaat. If I were you, I would practice the courtesy of our IGAD Secretariat Saxiib, I salute the succesfull rise of our Somali-Kenyan brothers within the ranks of Kenya. But concerning Somalia, I wouldnt entrust Somali-Kenyans with guarding Somalias interest, their first loyalty will always go to their native country of Kenya.

IGAD 'delegation' waa wiil Somali Kenyati ah, MP's kuna wa kuwii tolka, but Who is 'beesha caalamka', ma Kikuyuha?

Good riddance. They should take all their Kenyan nationals with them. P.S. Hope Ethiopia decides to leave as well.

Tillamook;934336 wrote: After all the brouhaha and cantrabaqash from Jubaland detractors, maanta waxay la soo shir tageen "why are things moving so fast"? Lol:D The participant themselves are saying things are being rushed and they suspect ulterior motives. Listen to this BBC intervieuw from this morning. http://www.bbc.co.uk/somali/maqal_iyo_muuqaal/2013/04/130331_khilaafka_kismaayo.shtml

Maya saxiib, kursiga sida u ugalay ayaa is idhi waa nin kolay meel xalaal ah jooga. P.S. I like wearing the Khamiis. Sometimes I wear even a black Khamiis.

Khilaaf ka dhashay qaabka uu u socdo shirka Kismaayo iyo Ergooyin isaga baxay http://www.jowhar.com/khilaaf-ka-dhashay-qaabka-uu-u-socdo-shirka-kismaayo-iyo-ergooyin-isaga-baxay/ Qaar ka mid ergooyinka ka qeyb galaya shirka ka socda magaalada Kismaayo ee maamul u sameynta Jubooyinka ayaa shirka isaga baxay, iyagoo sheegay in aanay ku faraxsaneyn qaabka wax u socdaan. Ergooyinka ayaa ku eedeeyay Maamulka KMG ee Kismaayo inay shirka afduubteen, isla markaana tiradii oo lagu tala galay ee 500 eaheyd laga baday, kaasoo hada kor u dhaafaya ilaa kun qof. Axmed Maxamed Xasan oo ka mid ah waxgaradka Beesha **** oo la hadlay laanta afka soomaaliga ee BBC-da ayaa sheegay inay arkaan wax ka bedelan wixii ay filayeen, isla markaana shirka afduub lagu heysto. “Wax ka bedelan wixii aan sugeynay ayaa nooga muuqda, shirka waxaa afduub u heysta Jabhada Raaskambooni, waxaa meesha nooga salaadiinti iyo odayaashi dhaqanka ee deegaanada kuwa la yaqaano ma ahan”ayuu yiri Axmed. Shalay ayaa la sheegay in qaar ka mid ah ergada ay isaga baxeen shirka, kadib markii ay arkeen waxyaabo hareer marsan shirka, iyadoo qaabka shirka u socdo uu u muuqdo mid wax lala ordayo oo kale. Dastuurka uu yeelanayo Maamulka Jubaland oo maalin ka hor la meel mariyay ayaa qodobada ku jira dastuurka uu yahay mid laga soo minguuriyay kan Maamulka Puntland oo la rumeysan yahay in taageerada ugu badan ee dhaqaale uu ku bixinayo shirka Kismaayo. Xukuumada Soomaaliya ayaa mowqif cad iska taagtay shirka Kismaayo, markii todobaadkii hore is mari waa ku dhamaaday wada hadalada u dhaxeeyay wafdigii Ra’iisul Wasaaraha ee tagay Kismaayo iyo Maamulka KMG.

BBC: Khilaaf ka taagan shirka Kismaayo http://www.bbc.co.uk/somali/maqal_iyo_muuqaal/2013/04/130331_khilaafka_kismaayo.shtml Qaar ka mid ah ergooyinka beelaha ka qeybgalaya shirka ka socda magaalada Kismaayo ee la doonayo in maamul loogu sameeyo deegaankaasi ayaa waxa ay sheegeen in aanay ku faraxsaneyn qaabka ay wax u socdaan. Ergooyinka ayaa waxa ay sheegayaan in shirka ay afduubeen maamulka KMG ah ee magaalada Kismaayo, isla markaana tiradii loogu talagalay ee 500 boqol ahayd laga badiyay oo hadda ay kor u dhaafayaan kun qof. Ergooyinkaasi waxaa ka mid ah oo BBC la soo xiriiray Axmed Maxamed Xasan, oo ka mid ah waxgaradka beelaha deegaankaasi. Listen: http://www.bbc.co.uk/somali/maqal_iyo_muuqaal/2013/04/130331_khilaafka_kismaayo.shtml

Caadi maha. Our generations own abwaan.

Why is Kenya in such a hurry to create and finance the Jubbaland if the Somali goverment is already prebared to establish Jubbaland. The current Jubbaland initiative is Somalias Trojan Horse and we dont even realize it.

http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2013/Apr/28748/kenya_how_somali_man_clinched_seat_in_nyanza_province.aspx Quite an impressive achievement to be elected in within a non-Somali Province. Kenya: How Somali man clinched seat in Nyanza Province By Nick Oluoch Wednesday, April 03, 2013 Migori, Kenya: Mohamed Junet became the first Kenyan Somali to be elected Member of the National Assembly in Nyanza Province. Although he is a former Migori town Mayor, having been nominated as a councillor in 2003, Mr Junet’s rise to become the first MP of the new Suna East constituency, attests to how far politics has evolved in Nyanza. In the nominations, the MP beat strong candidates who included former area MPs John Pesa and Owino Likowa, to win the Orange Democratic Movement party ticket. And in the General Election, the 35-year-old beat a host of candidates, to capture the seat, hived off from the former Migori constituency. Speaking soon after he was declared the winner, Junet said unlike most parliamentary candidates who won on the basis of their clans, he had an all-inclusive campaign team. “I could not simply come and try to make my campaign based on members of the Somali community,” he said. Campaign He said his leadership would be all-inclusive and acceptable by all constituents to move ahead together. Coming from a ‘minority’ community and vying against an incumbent, Junet was aware he needed to stage an effective campaign to attract many people. The MP ensured his campaign was coordinated by people from all parts of the constituency to make them own the process. Source: Standard

http://www.hiiraan.com/news/2013/Apr/wararka_maanta4-21492.htm Kenya withdrawing more troops. Sad news for our Kenyan agents here.

not funny.

Xaaji Xunjuf;934231 wrote: mo Farax Mo Farah would make sense. He broke quite a number of world records last year. And was European Athlete of the Year.

HAG?

xiinfaniin;934191 wrote: Carafaat has been rattled by the creation of Jubbaland ---he has become some sort of joke in this forum, someone with extreme emotions. Saxiib, you should know by now that when people start calling me names is because their ego is hurt. waa ku raxeysta.

Haatu;934217 wrote: "Tolka is being punished for simply trying to organise and claim what is legitimately their in Jubbooyinka." That's it in a nutshell. It's interesting to note that all the captured nabaddiid are all from a certain clan... Which clan is that Haatu?

Che -Guevara;934175 wrote: lol@Tolka, that's best you could say with silly grin.If anyone is blinded by anything, it is you, supporting tribal entity and have audacity to preach others about ills of clan federalism. Che, I suggest you post your arguments here why you think Sierra Leone is the same as the Kenyans and Ethiopians Xiinfaniin and Zack support rather then safing face by sending PM to tolka.

The Zack;934188 wrote: Kibaki I expected you to support another Kikuyu called Kenyatta.

Who is your candidate for Hiiraan Person of the Year 2013? Previous Hiiraan Persons of the Year. 2012 Yusuf Hassan(MP from Kenya) 2011 Tarzan 2010 Riyaale and Siilanyo 2009 Dr.Shahiid 2008 Nuur Cadde 2007 Dr.Xawo 2006 Sheick Shariif 2005 Abdiqadir Yahye 2004 Amiin Arts