Moscow Must Avoid Shadow War With Ankara By Mark GaleottiDec. 03 2015 10:06 Last edited 10:06 Moscow is sanctioning Turkish goods and holidays, something that will have a distinct impact on an economy which earns $6.5 billion a year from Russian tourists, but is this enough to assuage President Vladimir Putin's evident fury at the shooting down of one of his bombers? And if it is not, what else can he do short of direct — and hopefully unthinkable — military action against a NATO member with an army not that much smaller that Russia's? The temptation may be, to strike from the shadows. Turkey and Russia have, after all, a long and bloody history not just of outright war, but of border, indirect, covert and political struggles. From proxy wars in the Caucasus khanates and Ukraine in the 17th century, through to political tussles over Poland in the 18th, and cultural-religious ones in the Balkans which lasted through into the 20th, these are two countries with a long tradition of underhand conflict. Today, Moscow's capacities to blend political, intelligence, information and even criminal assets into multi-vectored campaigns is greater than ever. For a president eager to extract a pound of flesh, this may seem a tempting option. For a start, Turkey — ever volatile — is going through a particularly violent and turbulent time. This year has seem presumed Islamic State bomb attacks, others against Kurdish rallies, and a spate of other killings including last week's which saw a prominent Kurdish human rights lawyer killed. Against this backdrop, Russian agents and hirelings might be able to launch attacks of their own (and how many more would it take to ensure other tourists, for example, stay away, further hitting the economy?) without it obviously being a Muscovite maneuver. Indeed, part of the value of such incidents might also be to provoke further violence between Turkish factions themselves. Stirring up trouble between Kurds, ultra-leftist terrorists like the DHKC/P, criminals, and a government also prone to sanctioned and unsanctioned violence and then sitting back to enjoy the show might suit the Kremlin well. The presence of an organized and active Kurdish movement is also a potential asset. With the Kurds having in effect established a state for themselves in Iraq, and being one of the more effective militias in Syria (much to Ankara's chagrin), renewed pressures for their independence or autonomy within Turkey is inevitable. In this case, the Russians — who have supported the Kurds in the past when it was expedient — could be useful friends to them. This could just mean political support in international fora, but could also involve funding or even arming the more radical groups. Given that Turkish President Recep Erdogan is engaged in an ambitious effort to re-establish Turkey as a regional power, one could also see Russia responding by more aggressively countering this. From Azerbaijan to Turkish-controlled Northern Cyprus (whose president is increasingly at odds with Ankara), through to Israel (an important trading partner, despite the obvious personal antagonism between Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), there is a wealth of areas in which to introduce problems, from a judicious smear or leak here, to an outright assassination or staged provocation there. And yet Putin should think thrice before striking once. The chances of his strategy becoming clear in the end are great and this would anger Ankara and worry the West. Besides, Turkey is no soft target, Erdogan doubly so. The irony is that Turkey is in many ways similar to Russia, from its revisionist plans and the aggressiveness of its intelligence agencies, to the character of its ambitious autocrat-presidents. It may lack the excitement of a war in the shadows, but ultimately Putin would be best served sticking to the humdrum world of the boycott and the diplomatic rebuke. Mark Galeotti is professor of global affairs at New York University.

I agree with Galbeedi Putin is a bully and Obama needs to wake up and deal with this monster. Having said that, ISIS must be dealt with first.

I won't believe it until Galbeedi confirms it. Did Siilaanyo spend a large amount of money to defuse the rebellion?

Thank You for overcoming your personal biases. Finland is an amazing country, but it is too cold.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jb_5QlLQQH8

Allyourbase, you are right in the sense that they are using the Koran and Sunnah, but they are not using it the right way with the right interpretation. The Koran and the Sunnah need much more nuanced understanding than "kill the kafir". These extremists have a fundamental misunderstanding of Islam and you know it saxib. The question is, how do we stop them? You and I are on the same page that these roaches be exterminated from the face of the earth.

Good analysis.

Lol. Never heard them.

He most likely is there to get more student sign-ups for his online gig.

^^ Gabiley clan never had the SL presidency, right? It could very well be Gebiley family's turn this time regardless of Bihi's popularity as a person.

Crazy radicals are misusing the religion again.

Ahmed is a capable guy. Good luck to him.

^

Garowe has the worst and ugliest airport i have ever witnessed. Why is it even called an "airport"?

Saalax, you are setting a good example here saxib. Good on you. If this weapon will be used to destabilize other areas like Puntland, the local citizens must take a strong stand against terrorism.

Woow. This is a very positive project. Let us see what it looks like after the rainy season.

It should be interesting to see after it is finished. Do we have any renderings of what it will look like?

No other principled demands. Waa hanalosoo celiyo bahasha. lol

lol@solving somalia's politics. Close sources once told me that UN Somalia office is actually a marfish. This Iid guy is a living proof.

Who is really behind this Saalax?

Great project for the area. All the best.

The two were friends who had a common enemy in Minneapolis, which was Duke. Now they are fighting each other with dirt. Somalis and their nonsense. ElPunto is onto something. I personally believe these two are not qualified for the positions they are seeking.

Alaha u naxariisto. Bad news really.

Relatives mourn the death of Mohammad Akhlaq in the village A 50-year-old man in northern India has been killed in a mob lynching allegedly over rumours that his family had been storing and consuming beef at home. Mohammad Akhlaq was kicked and beaten with stones by a group of men in Dadri in Uttar Pradesh state on Monday night. Mr Akhlaq's 22-year-old son was also seriously injured in the attack, and has been admitted to a hospital. Six people have been arrested in connection with the incident. Police are probing who spread the rumour. Slaughter of cows is a sensitive issue in India as the animal is considered sacred by Hindus, who comprise 80% of the country's 1.2bn people. Uttar Pradesh is among a number of Indian states who have tightened laws banning cow slaughter and the sale and consumption of beef. The beef ban has also provoked outrage with many questioning how the government decides what is on their plate. Mr Akhlaq's family said the family had stored mutton, and not beef in their fridge. The police have taken the meat and sent it for testing, reports said. "Some locals spread rumours that Akhlaq had cow meat at his home and engaged in cow slaughter. Following the rumours, they attacked his home," senior local official NP Singh told The Indian Express newspaper. Senior police official Kiran S told the AFP news agency that the "announcement about the family consuming beef was made at a [local] temple". The incident happened in a village, barely 50km (31 miles) away from the Indian capital, Delhi, where Mr Akhlaq, a farm worker, lived with his family.