Originally posted by Castro: But please tell me why the leader(s) of the ICU decided to take this colossal strategic misstep? That’s a very good question to whose answer only few know yaa Castro! What I know though (I suspect you know it as well) is that ICU has two components to it. One is militaristic in its political outlook and adventurous in nature. The likes of Turk, Ayrow, and Afghani represent it. This wing of the Courts always wanted to fight with Ethiopia and liberate ******. They never appreciated the value of having peace talks with the TFG. The other component of the ICU is represented by the likes of Hasan Dahir, Sharif, and Janaqow. They are realist and wanted [edit]to reach a political settlement with the TFG for the good of the Somalia and for building a legitimate platform for political Islam in the future. I think those who wanted a war with our historical enemy won the day and outmaneuvered the other wing of the Courts! There are other factors that aided this group and hasten this war. TFG’s insistence on Ethiopia’s presence did not give Sheekh Hasan a room to maneuver. Courts could not compromise on this issue for they correctly see Ethiopia as a part of Somalia’s problem, and an obstacle to peace. ^^^ that’s an educated guess yaa Castro!

It's a day of infamy! But Baashow, this war, though a bit hasty, is a just war. Scrape away its inflated political layers and you get two diametrically opposed sides fiercely fighting for the control of the south: Islamic Courts and Ethiopian government. Ethiopia power and military reach is not insurmountable and I believe in the end the Courts will come out on top and emerge as the victor of this war. That may take months or even years, but it will and must happen. Ceasefire is not feasible now for two reasons. For one, TFG as a framework for reconciliation is null and void. In fact, the first casualty of this war has been the old man and his TFG! Secondly, Ethiopia, unless violently repelled, will continue to grab more land and let that inexistent (politically) entity claim it as a bargaining chip. In the coming days and weeks (quite possibly) Ethiopia will make a significant push in to the south and it’s even feasible that Kismayo could fall. That however wont represent a defeat and the Courts will continue to fight and eventually drive Ethiopia out. Unless that happens peace remains afar, i say!

Che wrote: ....but then again the TFG is the place where all that's wrong with Somalia resides! Very true indeed.

Originally posted by Pi: quote:Originally posted by xiinfaniin: Rag baad is haysaan ee ama iska celi sidii raggeedu yeeli jirey ama iska aamu.lol. There is no toddlers in Bamdiiradley! There are however sword-rattling shabaabs who are ready to face the xabashi army. Rag baad is haysaan? Iska celi? LOL. Qofna isma hayno, oday. If you mean iska celi in terms of dood, then I think my objection in question cannot be overruled. No Religion, No God, No Moral system can encourage the military exploilation of children. How's that for iska celid? It's called taking the moral high-gound. Of course, your blind love for anything ICU blinds you from their blunders. No amount of pictures of adolescents, no amount of verified news about conscripting young students will convince you. Dude, horta, boos miyee kuu balan qaadeen, if they win? You haven't so much as criticised them, not even once. ^^You are dwelling in the lower point of this debate adeer. I don’t think you can be taken seriously when your sole objection of the Courts rests on this absurd allegation of using toddlers as soldiers! Courts have many shortcomings saaxiib, but using toddlers as a fighting soldiers is not one of them, adeer! Fahamtay ? Aw Yusuf, adeer xiniinyaa kaa buuxa , but aayar with your emotional pleas, adeer.

^^Dont you worry yaa Wiilo, at this juncture niether USA nor Ethiopia can reverse current events. No matter who helps Ethiopia, its bound to lose. It jus cant win. It has been winning for the last sixteen years and now its our turn.

Originally posted by Pi: The courts were ready, huh? How many more toddlers and teenagers did they snatch out of the hands of their mothers? ^^None! Besides, that kinda talk has been rated low adeer . Rag baad is haysaan ee ama iska celi sidii raggeedu yeeli jirey ama iska aamu.lol. There is no toddlers in Bamdiiradley! There are however sword-rattling shabaabs who are ready to face the xabashi army.

^^Baashi, feeds from the front lines inform us that the good shabaabs are winning big. Ethiopia has finnally assumed its 'responsibility' to defend the old man and his failed project.And the Big Fight has indeed started. I need a war sermon from you saaxiib . Nimankan amxaarada waa na shiddeeyeen waayadan. Waa in lakala baxaa saaxiib.

^^Correction: Ethiopia opened another front, and Courts have been ready for it! At this point of the game Pland is irrelevent.

lol@Juje! Ma wadaad kale oo gabyayaad aragtey! Xiin always likes gabayada adeer!

Paragon, adeer i am soomaali, and english is my third language. So ofcourse Soomaali baan ku caana maala!

Brown, even if the news which Duke and co posted is correct, still in the big scheme of things the mere fact that Ethiopia is involved tips the balance of this war. Historical prepective: Ali Dhuuh, a poet of his own right, chanted, quite hastily if may add, celebratory verses to mark what he thought was a final victory against Sayid’s forces. He addressed Sayid Mohamed’s dervishes directly: Shuunkii ***** fadhiyo shaaxin gudaheeda Shafqadlay ***** waa wixii sheema weeraraye’e Sheekadayda waad haysateen aniyo shaywaale! Shanlihii wadaadkeed wadeen shagax masiiseene’e The Great Sayid, as always, reppeled the sham contender quite eloquently: Wiil yahow shareecadu midkay shuuftay baad tahaye' Shafqadli'idu waa waxaad u tiri shuun saraan ahay'e Shiil baan wadnaha kuugu ridi shuuqda abidkeede'e Shifo malaha geel aan lihi ila shaqaynayne'e maxaad haatan laga sheeliyaa saadanbaan shabine'e So let teh early chants of victory continue but know yaa Brownie, in the south as it's today one either wuu la heshiin wadaada ama, as the old man once said, badda biyeheedu cabbin wallee!

@What traitor hears me now and says not Amen? [edit]Bring it on yaa Paragon! I am tempted too!

Some times yaa Caamir, actualities on the ground tramples any legal niceties. If the TFG loses Baydhabo as its seat, the consequences, political or otherwise, would be bitterly crushing and would not be as negligible as you have suggested. What the current flare up would ultimately test is Ethiopia’s claim as a regional superpower that could handily tip the balance of our political squabbles. If indeed TFG (and by deduction Ethiopia) lose Baydhabo, the options for TFG would not be all that good. Operating it in Puntland is definitely an option, but not as effective an option as being in the southern theatre.

^^ Ha is-dul-yaalo maydkoodu waa doqon abaalkeedi!

Miinyeen Macbuudow adaa lagu muraadaaye Mulkigaaga adigaa leh oon lagugu maagayne Adigaa masiibada ceshoo noo miciin fala e Allahayow ku soo magangalnoo kuu martaan nahaye. ^^Words of the learned! Thanks Aw Yususf for sharing it. I always wanted these verses! As for the Sheekh Cali, he was a true Muslim scholar indeed.

Baashi, the fight still continues. I have come to respect the invisible forces that seem to control the circumstances. How else would one explain the acceptance of the European initiative by both sides followed, almost simultaneously, by an eruption of war? Sword-rattler and tail-turner alike, war is what it is now yaa Baashi! And from what I can gather, it is too early to make a call. But my political analysis tells me there could only be two scenarios, if this indeed turns out an all-out war: 1- Courts win by either militarily defeating TFG (and driving it out of Baydhabo) or by holding their ground. 2- TFG wins by significantly advancing into the Deep South. Bushing back the Courts wont mean anything for TFG at this juncture. When I say ‘win’ here, I am using it quite liberally. They way I see it, yaa Baashi, is that in the final analysis TFG loses either way, if it indeed enters an open conflict with Courts and the door of negotiations with them gets closed shut. My reasoning is that if the TFG gets the upper hand this conflict, this war goes regional as the calls for jihad echoes in that part of our world. My assumption is Mogadishu will forever remain off limits for the TFG short of political settlement between the warring parties. I can’t see Courts losing this fight. They are a radical remedy to our intractable political problem. To be sure, it will not help them socially (social agendas) or militarily as an entity. But their sacrifices may help eradicate a political attitude and put out of business a generation of warlord leaders. I am going to Minneapolis sii aan wax usoo xuuraamiyo…IA!

Aw Yusuf, I cant do analysis on a raw data! Sorry saaxiib! I happen to beleive that the whole thing is not as big as reported. Lets wait and see. tommorow is not afar adeer.

America's leading newpapers take: today's ny times today's washington post

This is how some Mogadishu media outlets report: Qaadisaya reports victory. Shabeele's take.

^^What does it say yaa Duke?

Originally posted by rudy: trust me bro! icu is down 7 zip in the first qtr! lol@7 zip! You know I am a flaming partisan when it comes to this stuff. Be vigilant saaxiib! Let us pray for peace.

lol@Liberal Hypocrites! But Ayyoubi, you are a making a distinction without a difference, saaxiib! But I think you got my drift! Lest you missed it the subtitle of my objection is the lack of consistency (logic wise) from your part!

LOL@Aw Yusuf!

^^^Allow run i hiilli !

^^All I know, good Ayoub, is the bare fact that Ethiopia is the principle ally of Somaliland! In fact, Ethiopia has been the birthplace of Somali rebels, including of course your heroic SNM! It’s hard to critique others political positions (if that was what you are trying to do here) so fast yaa Ayoub when your own caw is less holier. One can’t offer a garb, to use a much harsh metaphor, from whose possession he himself is deprived.