Oh dear never do you know that shaving beards could be a tactical move that could indeed serve as a means to reach specific objectives including, but not limited to, trapping Ethiopian troops in the capital. If there were predictions made about the fall of this government then only a fool would need a proof of it when it’s quite apparent that there is no government to speak of today. Unless of course riding Ethiopian tanks substitute government authority. ps: What say you about the premature revelations as what hatched plans are for future Somali/Ethiopian relationship yaa NN ?

Originally posted by Naxar Nugaaleed: somae of you people should stop with the business of discussions and debate and join that of prophesizing. I see a lot of Miss cleos in the making. None of the above commentators claim to possess paranormal abilities! None have asserted to have obtained their information from spirits. To equate their take of Somali politics to that of psychic experience is thereof a desperate and feeble act to dodge the issues debated here yaa NN. You have many options here saaxiib from which you have the liberty to choose without embarrassing yourself. You could be a silent reader and choose not to comment at all. Alternatively you could choose to engage and debate in a rational way without resorting to issue ineffective and pretentious orders. Of course I am assuming that you possess a little more decorum than some of your fellow Ethiopian supporters here!

Ethiopian Troops Leave Security In Mogadishu to City's Residents Disarmament Bid Falls Short of Goal By Stephanie McCrummen Washington Post Foreign Service Wednesday, January 3, 2007; A14 MOGADISHU, Somalia, Jan. 2 -- The sandy road from airstrip K-50 is littered with the remnants of roadblocks, heaps of pushed-aside stones left over from when warlords balkanized this coastal capital, and rusted metal gates where Islamic militias took charge from the warlords. On Tuesday, clusters of Ethiopian troops were here and there on the road into the city, leaning against gray crumbling walls or passing in trucks along wasted yellow cornfields still sopping from recent floods. Within the city's borders, the Ethiopian troops who chased out the country's Islamic Courts movement on behalf of Somalia's weak transitional government were hardly visible at all. Six days after the transitional government took hold, very little security was evident beyond that which Somalis have grown accustomed to providing for themselves: roving pickup trucks filled with armed teenagers, and AK-47-toting militiamen who guard the city block by block, and clan by clan. It was the first day after Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi demanded that thousands of former Islamic fighters and citizens in general surrender their weapons or be forcibly disarmed. But with the ability of Gedi's government to provide security in doubt, almost no one did. Only a few spectators showed up at the points the government had set up to collect guns. In an interview, the country's interior minister, Hussein Farah Aideed, said lawmakers would return this week to their town of exile, Baidoa, to approve Gedi's declaration of martial law, and a plan to allow 90 days -- instead of Gedi's original timeline of three days -- to disarm militias. In what amounted to an appeal for outside help, Aideed also admitted that the transitional government was weak. "We have a symbolic government. Ministries we don't have, a military we don't have," he said, sitting in shirt and tie inside a house fortified with his own personal set of guards slinging assault rifles. "We're limited." Aideed is the son of Mohamed Farah Aideed, a Somali warlord targeted by U.S. military forces in a failed raid in 1993 that led to the deaths of 18 American soldiers. In a densely populated neighborhood of Mogadishu, people still walk past the rusted parts of the U.S. Black Hawk helicopters shot down in that incident. They buy mangos next to the rusted-out shells of tanks. They go about life in a city of salty air and bombed-out buildings and the leftover grace of old Italian arches. On Tuesday, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi reiterated that he would withdraw his troops soon, while Gedi appealed to the 53-country African Union to accelerate efforts to deploy troops to Somalia. Perhaps thousands of militiamen who fought for the vanquished Islamic Courts movement have melted back into the city's maze-like neighborhoods, each now controlled by clans and sub-clans and sub-sub-clans. There is lingering tension around the city that nothing is settled yet, and fears remain that the Islamic fighters could reemerge in a guerrilla-style war against the government that ousted them. Aideed said the most hardened fighters had fled south with their leaders along the coast toward the Kenyan border, where they were being pursued by Ethiopian troops. The group is thought to include three suspects in the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and the U.S. Navy was patrolling Somalia's coast to help prevent escapes by sea. The fighters have vanished into an area thick with mangrove forests, and Aideed said that finding them would be difficult even for the best-trained soldiers. On Monday, Kenyan authorities arrested 10 foreigners suspected of being Islamic fighters as they attempted to slip across the border. Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki said in a statement that his country would not provide refuge to people seeking to undermine regional stability. Some analysts have said, however, that for political reasons, Kenyan authorities might give refuge to certain members of the Islamic movement in an effort to avoid trouble with their own substantial population of Somalis who might be sympathetic to the exiled fighters.

^^^Taliban are back saaxiib, and so will Courts men!

^^It's a good news indeed. Ilaahow jannaddii ka waraabi kaas! I can go home now and leave my office yaa Castro.

Yaa is gaaray weli. Thanks for reporting the first thabiixa of the year yaa Jimcaale!

You could easily be truthful and say that Ethiopia, supported by America, caused a significant setback on Somalia’s Islamic Courts. ^^Just like that yaa Duke! Learn and practice how to not spin when it’s not necessary to do so.

^^So we all benefit from your inside information, any proof of Eritrean troops in the battle fields? Any?

^^Dont be so naive yaa Caamir! Xuseen Caydiid is only playing the game thats being played in Mogadishu. He is proposing new ideas that are relevant to the current politics. Infact as insider as he is, i think he is being smart here when he publicly suggests these freindly gestures! To him it is simple: be on Ethiopian side becuase thats the only way you could win in Somali politics ala old man's example! Who can say there is no truth in that?

LOL@They are new to governing and thus will make many more gaffes. ^^There's nothing to govern adeer. Now its time of showing loyalty and not a time to govern.

Agreed! In # 2, I was just sugarcoating it and setting up a snare for the doorknobs (normally I am civil and courteous, but the term you coined is hard to resist) of this site! I think it would be option # 1 and as we speak the recruitment has started! Geedi will follow old man steps to gain the trust of Ethiopia. He is loyal and young but what he lacks is a supportive base like the old man has. Old man’s advantage was that he was not only loyal to Ethiopia but he also maintained a political base that’s receptive to his and Ethiopia’s plans. Geedi with the help of Ethiopia will do the same, I say. Mogadishu is very significant not only to Ethiopia but to many in the west, and if Ethiopia gets a foothold by satisfying political ambitions of the major tribal groupings who call it home today, we are indeed in a new era yaa Castro! Of course good Somalis would plan and sketch a parallel plan to dislodge Ethiopia from their soil.

^^Indeed Islamic movement will be back! These sorts of setbacks are expected when one sets out to do what the Courts attempted to do. Such is the nature of what we desire yaa Redka! You see the Ethiopian supporters (their claim that they Somalia to come back is an insult to our intelligence) in this site will soon find out what the real game is. No matter how hard one tries to minimize the significance of Ethiopian presence in Mogadishu, it is next to impossible for this to be a charity act from Ethiopia. They have their agenda, and quite ironically their agenda may help Islamist cause and enhance Courts credibility. The dilemma to avoid this is just problematic that I don’t see them having easy way out of this. They will have to maintain a number of troops in the name of pursuing the remnants of the Courts and that alone is enough to show the warlord supporters for what they are!

Remember them those Afghanis who tailgated American victors in the recent Afghan war! Picture them warlords as they entered town after town on the heels of American tanks and erected their dirty flags and chanted with victory songs! I see some parallels here in Somalia to that of the Afghan warlords! Although this time the victor is camouflaged with Ethiopian military uniforms, still it remains the same. The warlords though different in many ways remain clueless as the ones who headed NA in Afghanistan. Many of us got it wrong as to what the level of American commitment to this war was. We thought that we were facing Ethiopia and its third-rated weaponry! We calculated we could beat them hands down, and in the process eliminate its trusted lackeys in Baydhabo. Wrong, we were. It was not Ethiopia who did the fighting and faced those brave Somali sons. It was America who delivered the final bunch that exacted a depressing setback to the ICU’s fighting force! It’s however a setback. One can only defeat men but not ideology and creed. ICU represented a political ideology based on Islam. And it will come again. What happened in the recent fights are lessons learned. Now our Northern Alliance, as I hinted, are from the shallow end of the gene pool. Especially the elderly man who heads them is. Devoid of any sort of a political vision, the man is indeed a shameless character who would try anything to attain his political objectives. Simply put, for him means justify the goal. But this time, the grave he dug is a bit too deep---may he be the first to fall in it! Now there could be three scenarios from this latest reshuffle. 1- Ethiopia reduces it military presence in the south (concentrates on the access points, i.e. harbors and main airports), establishes Geedi as a strong man in the Mogadishu, reconciles Geedi’s clan with their main rival clan in the city and gets a permanent foothold in the south. I say this the most likely outcome. 2- Ethiopia wises up, withdraws its troops, and the world comes in with cash and rebuilds Somalia and puts it back on its feet. Unlikely outcome. 3- Ethiopia stays on and other African troops send troops to disarm Somalis as the old man wants and clannish mistrust deepens and the era of warlords commences afresh! In the meantime, and independent of above listed scenarios, Islamism grows and deepens with a hardened view about this world and what it stands for. The sons of the Somali sahwah will develop a realistic military strategy and sit it out and wait when a new opportunity presents it self and they will strike very hard. NA on the other hand will prove itself to be, well as Castro puts it, a doorknob!

^^Indeed we are in a new era! We are not disputting that saaxiib! You need to spin on this one. We need one today yaa Captain!

^^You didnt get it yaa Brown, did you? Given Somalias new political realities, I find Ina Caydiid’s bold pronouncement a brilliant move from his part! Sadly! He seems to have understood the political game that’s played here. Of course, he will backtrack it and clarify what he actually meant. But that’s not the point here. The point is to show that Aydiid Jr. as a leader of his sub-clan sees Ethiopia and its presence in the country as a friendly one, and not as a threat. The achievement is twofold: to show a serious rivalry of loyalty with Geedi and the old man for Ethiopia and its leader and to perhaps change the tone of the current political game! For sometime now Pland and Sland represented Ethiopia’s interest in Somalia. Mogadishu and its environs were depicted as a hostile ground. Geedi has been trying to seriously challenge that characterization and succeeded to a degree! So it’s not surprising that Aydid Jr. is sharing his thoughts in this perception changing campaign! What’s more I believe is how he’s trying to formulate the political chess with his markedly bold suggestion as to what the relationship between the two countries should be! Don’t blame the man. He sees some opening for him as old man’s time nears to pass! Someone needs to assume the status of being the closest Somali warlord to the Ethiopia’s current regime!

^^In the words of Cali Xuseen: Fiinyahay adaa ololayoo oohin ciirsadaye'e Iska aamu waan kula qabaa uurku-taalada'e

^^^Geeldoon waa nin wax kala garanayya yaa Castro.

Thanks for your kind words Castriyo Xoogsadow! Adeer waa la gumoobay Wallaahi! Kuwa manta nagu diganayya ee u qaba inay guulaysteen kama foga raggii Sayid Maxamed ku digtay markii gaalku jabiyey. History will be harsh on this ilk! I don’t know how long it will take but I am certain that Ethiopia and its subordinates will be utterly defeated! Ethiopia cad hungirigeeda ka weyn bay damacday inay laqdo wayna ku go’i wallee!

….May Allah bless with shahaadah for the brave fighters who perished in the hands of the enemy…. Here I post Abu Baqa’s lament for Andalusia! Arguably ICU’s recent military and political setbacks can hardly be compared to the defeat of Muslims in Andalusia, still I find Abu al-Baqa' al-Rundi’s lament quite fitting and a suitable quote for our current pain. If nothing else, it will remind us other (perhaps forgotten) defeats of historic proportions! No doubt that this defeat is very hard to swallow but if the news that’s coming from the south is something to go by, real victory remains afar from the treacherous ilk! No matter how they (or we for that matter) interpret these invents, the final chapters of this struggle are yet to be written! Said Abu al-Baqa' al-Rundi. Everything declines after reaching perfection, therefore let no man be beguiled by the sweetness of a pleasant life. As you have observed, these are the decrees that are inconstant: he whom a single moment has made happy, has been harmed by many other moments; And this is the abode that will show pity for no man, nor will any condition remain in its state for it. Fate irrevocably destroys every ample coat of mail when Mashrifi swords and spears glance off without effect; It unsheaths each sword only to destroy it even if it be an Ibn Dhi Yazan and the scabbard Ghumdan Where are the crowned kings of Yemen and where are their jewel-studded diadems and crowns? Where are [the buildings] Shaddad raised in Iramand where [the empire] the Sassanians ruled in Persia? Where is the gold Qarunonce possessed; where are `Ad and Shaddad and Qahtan? An irrevocable decree overcame them all so that they passed away and the people came to be as though they had never existed. The kingdoms and kings that had been came to be like what a sleeper has told about [his] dream vision. Fate turned against Darius as well as his slayer, and as for Chosroes,no vaulted palace offered him protection. It is as if no cause had ever made the hard easy to bear, and as if Solomon had never ruled the world. The misfortunes brought on by Fate are of many different kinds, while Time has causes of joy and of sorrow. For the accidents [of fortune] there is a consolation that makes them easy to bear, yet there is no consolation for what has befallen Islam. An event which cannot be endured has overtaken the peninsula; one such that Uhud has collapsed because of it and Thahlan has crumbled! The evil eye has struck [the peninsula]in its Islam so that [the land] decreased until whole regions and districts were despoiled of [the faith] Therefore ask Valencia what is the state of Murcia; and where is Jativa, and where is Jaén? Where is Cordoba, the home of the sciences, and many a scholar whose rank was once lofty in it? Where is Seville and the pleasures it contains, as well as its sweet river overflowing and brimming full? [They are] capitals which were the pillars of the land, yet when the pillars are gone, it may no longer endure! The tap of the white ablution fount weeps in despair, like a passionate lover weeping at the departure of the beloved, Over dwellings emptied of Islam that were first vacated and are now inhabited by unbelief; In which the mosques have become churches wherein only bells and crosses may be found. Even the mihrabs weep though they are solid; even the pulpits mourn though they are wooden! 0 you who remain heedless though you have a warning in Fate: if you are asleep, Fate is always awake! And you who walk forth cheerfully while your homeland diverts you [from cares], can a homeland beguile any man after [the loss of] Seville? This misfortune has caused those that preceded it to be forgotten, nor can it ever be forgotten for the length of all time! 0 you who ride lean, thoroughbred steeds which seem like eagles in the racecourse; And you who carry slender, Indian blades which seem like fires in the darkness caused by the dust cloud [of war], And you who are living in luxury beyond the sea enjoying life, you who have strength and power in your homelands, Have you no news of the people of Andalus, for riders have carried forth what men have said [about them]? How often have the weak, who were being killed and captured while no man stirred, asked our help? What means this severing of the bonds of Islam on your behalf, when you, 0 worshipers of God, are [our] brethren? Are there no heroic souls with lofty ambitions; are there no helpers and defenders of righteousness? 0, who will redress the humiliation of a people who were once powerful, a people whose condition injustice and tyrants have changed? Yesterday they were kings in their own homes, but today they are slaves in the land of the infidel! Thus, were you to see them perplexed, with no one to guide them, wearing the cloth of shame in its different shades, And were you to behold their weeping when they are sold, the matter would strike fear into your heart, and sorrow would seize you. Alas, many a mother and child have been parted as souls and bodies are separated! And many a maiden fair as the sun when it rises, as though she were rubies and pearls, Is led off to abomination by a barbarian against her will, while her eye is in tears and her heart is stunned. The heart melts with sorrow at such [sights], if there is any Islam or belief in that heart!

A more involved military offensive might pose the same problems the U.S. is facing in Iraq, observers say. By Edmund Sanders Times Staff Writer December 26, 2006 NAIROBI, KENYA — Ethiopia's attacks against Islamic forces in Somalia may have delivered a short-term military victory, but analysts warned that a longer offensive could present the U.S. ally with some of the same challenges facing American forces in Iraq. Airstrikes against the Somali capital, Mogadishu, and other towns Sunday and Monday demonstrated Ethiopia's military superiority over the Islamic forces that seized most of southern Somalia during the summer. But Ethiopia would be hard-pressed to dispatch enough troops to capture and occupy Islamic-held areas of Somalia. "I don't understand what Ethiopia's objective is," said David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and now a political science professor at George Washington University. "I can't imagine their objective is to occupy and hold Somalia. It was a very limited victory." Most experts agree that Ethiopia's battle-tested army, numbering as many as 150,000 troops, could easily beat Somalia's ragtag Islamic fighters, which are believed to total under 10,000. But Islamists say they would compensate for their lack of numbers and sophisticated weaponry by pursuing an unconventional war, including suicide attacks and other insurgency-style tactics that U.S. and allied troops face in Iraq. "The Ethiopians could get bogged down into a hopeless, long-term guerrilla campaign with enormous supply lines," Shinn said. "I don't see how they 'defeat' the Islamists in the long run." The attacks Sunday and Monday marked the first time Ethiopia has publicly acknowledged taking direct military action against Somalia's Islamists. Ethiopian officials said they acted to preempt threats by Islamic forces to launch a "holy war" against them. Ethiopia is also moving to protect Somalia's weak transitional government, which has been battling with Islamists over who will control the Horn of Africa nation. Somalia has been without a functioning government since 1991. Anger over the Ethiopian airstrikes reverberated Monday throughout Mogadishu. Local radio stations flooded the airwaves with nationalist songs, recalling the history of tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, which last went to war in 1977. Angry youths rioted in several Somali cities, urging all adult males to join the Islamic forces. The Ethiopian attacks appeared to be bolstering support for the Islamists. "I used to think that the Islamic courts were just another interest group, but now I recognize that they are standing up for the country and religion," said Muse Ali Omar, a banana vendor in Mogadishu. "Ethiopia is my enemy, I will not sell bananas anymore," he said. "I will take my gun and go for jihad. Otherwise I am sure they will kill me in my banana kiosk if I wait for them here." Mohammed Ibrahim Mohammed, a moderate Muslim, said, "As long as the West is supporting Ethiopian invasion, it will open the door for Islamic courts." The Ethiopian strikes have helped unify the Islamic Courts Union, an alliance of religious leaders that came together to defeat U.S.-backed warlords this year. In recent months, some cracks were beginning to appear inside the alliance over how rigorously to implement Islamic law. But more recently, U.S. and Ethiopian officials have concluded that extremists have seized control of the courts. They accuse court leaders of having links to terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda. Last weekend, one Islamist leader issued an invitation to Muslims worldwide to join the fighting in Somalia. Eritrea is also believed to have dispatched as many as 2,000 troops to aid the Islamists. U.S. officials Monday called on Somali groups to end their fighting, but they did not call for an Ethiopian withdrawal. "Ethiopia has genuine security concerns," said one U.S. official, adding that State Department officials have urged the Ethiopian government to use "maximum restraint." The U.S. has worked closely with Ethiopia, including training elements of its military, in its four-year effort to contain the spread of Islamic extremism in the Horn of Africa. U.S. officials repeatedly have denied using Ethiopia as a proxy against Somali Islamists, and have insisted that they argued against an Ethiopian invasion with officials in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. A U.S. military official said the Pentagon, which set up a 1,500-man task force in neighboring Djibouti in 2002 because of concerns Al Qaeda-linked groups were seeking refuge in the region, has yet to take any action in response to the Ethiopian offensive. "We're just watching it," the official said. Shinn said international leaders should immediately intervene and push to remove all foreign fighters from Somalia. "A week ago I was still optimistic that we could get this cat back in the box," he said. "Now I'm not clear if that's an option."

^^Adigu dadnimo xumidaa ninyahow markii adeer Barre lasoo qaado maxaad muska ugasoo baxdaa horta ? [edit]Castro, the man is worthless and he talks like one! no surprise there! LOL@Jimcaale! I get it now!

Is the placeholder back on the airwaves again yaa Castro? That reminds me, in a very ironic way, Abu sufyaanis marvelous statement when he gazed with wonder at some groupings at Fatxu Makka; ma lanaa wa li reer-hebel !

Castrow I think you have expressed my sentiments quite eloquently and I agree with you on this. Courts shortcomings are negligible given the good they have achieved in the short time they have operated in the south. Their strategy, from now on, should be to reject to have a peace with inexistent entity and prepare for a hard war with Ethiopia. Baashow I envy your chronic optimism in the face of this difficult and complex situation! I know that you are not neutral on this conflict. You can’t be. So lets concentrate on the concerns of the present: victory over the enemy! One way to get there is reject peace talks when it does neither enhance your short-term standing nor achieve your long-term interest. When I say that I am not merely obeying the commands of my heart as SW suggested. I am also using my head adeer and with all honest I see no chance for peace. In fact if I were asked to counsel Courts tonight I would’ve counseled against entering any peace talks with Ethiopia unless Courts recover from these military setbacks. What Courts need to do is set the stage for an effective Islamic insurgency and ready themselves for a long war with Ethiopia. The announced change of strategy is good news for me. Their orderly retreat is a great tactical shift. They have saved thousands of young jihaadis who were ready to sacrifice their lives for a greater cause. Now its time to eye a bigger prize! This is no time for peace however awoowe! The old man whose treacherous history you’ve briefly touched dreams to rule Somalia from the back of an Ethiopian tank! I want Courts not to legitimize that awoowe! It will be a crime to do that. Wax wel-wela nin tolkiisu yahay wax-xoogaa’e Nin walboo wadada marahayyaa ii walaalahe’e As Mogadishu its logistical base, Kismayo its strategic hold, and many villages and towns are in their remote colonies, Courts yaa Baashe hold Somalia’s political strings. The native ones that is!

^^Adeer dawladani waa dhacday! Cabdullaahi dawladnimo calaf kuma laha mana geyo! Kuwa hadda la jooga sidaad farayso runtii ma sameyn karaan oo hadday is casilaan amxaaradaa laynaysa, marka u yara kaadi inta xabaddu joogsanaysaa then you will see the type of mass resignation you longing for!

Not as deep as some might wish yaa Centurion! One encouraging fact is that ICU has been very civil about it and tolerated a set of diverse views! It’s natural for such ideological convictions to seep in to the strategic planning of any organization. ICU is no different. What ever caused this major war to come this, today I believe they are all united to confront Ethiopia and defeat it. Castro, no this is not the end of the ICU. They have just started adeer. Indeed ICU will get a recruitment boost within the country and a logistical and moral support from abroad! This war will negatively impact Puntland and kill the TFG politically, if not milaterily. In the final analaysis ICU and its legacy would have a permanent footprint in somali politics and history! See waaye adeer, they have just started!