^^Warlords with ties with Ethiopia run most important regions in Somalia. Their advantage lies within the mistrust between Somalis. The masses are not on their side. I am confident if peace and security take hold in our land, politicians with Islamic orientation will prevail.

Originally posted by Northerner: 1. Agreement on the need for Ethio withdrawal and tentative timeline for it (agreement in principal) 2. Hold genuine and comprehensive political reconciliation between all Somali parties 3. Yeey - out. Shiekh Sharif as Pres/PM 4. New 5 year term for the new Pres 5. Set laws/legislation/political structure (different to that of now) Let me think about this one yaa Shimmaali!

Originally posted by Laba_Xiniinyood: Ethiopia does not stand to prevail – on the contrary it has everything to lose. Ninkii dhoof ku yimid bey geeridu dhibeysaa Yaa Xiin, your calls for reconciliation, though good, are not the only solutions to Somalia’s problems and certainly not achievable now. It is the final straw that is needed, but before reconciliation many ground-building googol-xaaris work needs to be done to pave the way for reconciliation. With the current state of affairs, reconciliation will not work for several reasons. First though, we must establish the dichotomy between what is practically possible and what is only plausible but impractical in theory. Reconciliation is possible, at the moment, only in theory. In practice, it would be nullified by lack of mutual understanding and reciprocated notion of what reconciliation actually entails. The greatest hindrance, as you have mentioned, is Qabiil. And the elimination of tribalism is something very much unlikely to happen in a society whose foundations lie with Qabiil. In assessing the person, a man will make all sorts of discrimination, consciously or unconsciously, based on his tribe, way of talking, marriage customs, and of course the prevailing perceptions. It is inevitable and mechanical. As soon as I speak, my birthplace is detected from my tone. As soon as a man from the far Duruqsi converses with one from Sheerbi each learns of the other’s lineage. They don’t have to tell each other – their dialect does it. One talking to a Southerner or a Northerner would automatically detect their origins. Dialect itself has become a sort of discriminatory feature. And it is this sort of discrimination, springing from language that is evident throughout Somalia and abroad. The basis of all tribal conflict is and has always been a case of ‘us’ against ‘them.’ The ‘them’ is an entity with multiple facets and variations, each depending on whose viewpoint is projected. A puntlander’s ‘them’ would be a Somalilander and vice versa; A Northerner would refer to ‘them’ to sort out their problems when questioned of the southerners; the Southerner will refer to ‘them’ when asked of secession. The discrimination doesn’t stop there, it is built up of a hierarchical structures delving deeper into clans, then sub-clans and sub-sub clans, each claiming legitimacy over the other. And it is these manifest differences that reconciliation alone cannot change. A new way of thinking is needed altogether. If reconciliation is to be achieved through unity, then what we need is a new Paradigm Shift – and that has to be a new set of perceptions to counter the old deeply-rooted notions of Qabyaalad, not merely the rectification of pre-existing perceptions. Unless this shift in perception is attained, the inevitability of tribal discrimination continuing to corrode the hearts of the coming generations cannot be overlooked. If you have stagnant sewage water forming a long puddle over a land, you cannot cut a small stream of pure water to cut across it. It will get polluted as they intermix. So let’s forget about the stagnant ideas and stagnated minds of late (the old perceptions) and dig up fresh streams, untainted by the impurities of Qabyaalad. Is that possible? Call me pessimistic, but reconciliation would simply not work under the current circumstances. We, as Somalis, are not prepared to see things they way they really are. We are looking but not seeing and that’s why this shift in perception is needed in order to allow us to see things more clearly. Underlying all this though is the fundamental issue of Islam and Islamic Shari’ah , which you argue we should compromise for the time being, until reconciliation is obtained. True, we cannot have secular governance functioning in parallel with Shari’ah law, just as we can’t have democratic governance alongside a dictatorial regime – exact opposite laws with equal validity cannot govern a country. So which one goes? In my view, from an Islamic perspective, to abandon, or even entertain the notion of abandoning, Islamic Shari’ah is flawed. And it is this that will see about the downfall of Somalia and depravity of her people, taking along with them the very last remnants of hope. What you say, good ol’ Xiin, is what we all know. “Something is wrong, let’s fix it.” How? ‘Reconciliation’. You have offered a solution that does not take into account the thinking process, the analysis process, the other alternatives and the procedures involved in bringing about that reconciliation. Every problem has a cause. Remove the cause and you eventually remove the problem. And since we all know that the root cause of all our problems is Qabiil , and you concede that it is much harder to root out, shouldn’t our efforts then be directed at finding ways to sort its problems first rather than outright pleas for reconciliation? Shouldn’t we employ a bottom-up approach to tackle the grassroots of the problem first than trying, in vain, to pioneer reconciliation? [/QB] ^^That was a very eloquent piece you posted right there yaa Labo X ! Problem is, as many brothers did before you, you spoke with more grammar than truth ( no pun intended). Here are quick rebuttals on your points: 1- Ethiopia stands to prevail if you are divided and she is united in national level. 2- Speaking of shariicah implementation when both the survival of its adherents and the very sovereignty of its (would be) jurisdiction are at great perils is, I daresay, pointless. There is no entrenched secular class in Somali politics. Our educated class is mostly shariicah friendly. Security and stability is what preventing Somalis to realize the injection of political Islam in our system. And reconciliation my good brother is one way of achieving that end goal. 3- Removing qabiil from our politics (your bottom-up approach) in our current state has slim chance in success. Reconciliation between political functions is more practical and probable than your idealistic approach. If we end this war between us, minimizing qabiil influence in Somali political discourse would be a realistic venture…

If Clinton loses all three states this evening, all Obama needs to do is to get enough percentages from the March races (he does not has to win) to secure his nomination!

Kenyans consider grand coalition Former UN chief Kofi Annan has briefed Kenyan MPs about the progress of talks aimed at defusing the election crisis before they move to a secret location. He did not give any details but a BBC correspondent says he seems to be moving towards the idea of a grand coalition with new polls next year. Mr Annan has ruled out a recount and says Kenya is too unstable for new elections for at least a year. At least 1,000 people have died after the opposition said polls were rigged. More than 600,000 people have been forced to flee their homes amid clashes between rival ethnic groups, seen as pro-opposition or pro-government. Blackout As they enter a third week, the talks between government and opposition teams are being moved away from the capital, Nairobi, for three days to avoid the glare of publicity. The current crisis is a big challenge but it provides an opportunity for Kenyan leaders to steer the country to a new level of stability Kofi Annan Mr Annan said he had asked both sides not to discuss the contents of the talks with anyone else, calling for a complete news blackout. He says that at the appropriate time, he will release the outcome of discussions to the media. Caution Mr Annan has hinted that the deal will include comprehensive constitutional, judicial and electoral reforms. Both the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and President Mwai Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) have tabled proposals for a power-sharing agreement. Mr Annan has however cautioned against speculation over the proposals being discussed and hinted that a deal may be reached in three days. He described the teams at the negotiating table as level-headed and expressed confidence that they will deliver a negotiated settlement. "The current crisis is a big challenge but it provides an opportunity for Kenyan leaders to steer the country to a new level of stability," Mr Annan told MPs at a special session in parliament. He commended the government for lifting a ban on live media coverage and holding of political meetings. The former UN chief reiterated that both ODM leader Raila Odinga and President Kibaki have been well briefed of the progress so far and are in total support of the process. Mr Annan also called on the MPs to travel to their constituencies and preach peace and tolerance insisting that both teams have agreed to ensure that those behind the recent clashes are investigated and prosecuted.

Originally posted by Kashafa: I agree, for example, that acceptable(yacni fully vetted, no war crimes, no qabyaalad) TFG technocrats be included in a new government, but they would only be operating in a pure administrative capacity due to their technical knowledge(or other strategic value, ie contacts, etc). They would have nothing to do with the legislative or the executive branches. ^^Even Kashafa is getting there...

Allow soo muslimi...

Formulae for peace in Somalia. ============================= 1-Hold genuine and comprehensive political reconciliation between all Somali parties---no preconditions. 2-Agree on a timetable for a prompt withdrawal of Ethiopian troops 3-Reform and restructure current tfg framework to accommodate other stakeholders 4-Agree on a realistic timetable for post civil war general elections ****Implicit in point 1 is reconciliations may have to take place while Ethio troops continue their rape of Somali republic. Inherent in point 3 is some warlords may be absorbed in the future political framework.

a positive move from the Asmara team Equally positive move from tfg side partisan portals trying to make sense out of these latest positive moves Xoogsade, brother, hopefully I will have a time to get to what could be a reasonable compromise between Somali parties to end this Somali tragedy. But before I do that I would like to make sure that you understand my whole contention, which is at this juncture of Somali history preconditions for peaceful resolution ring quite meaningless. Somalia as a whole must be saved from another round of civil war and further disintegration.

^^Marra waaxidah yaa Xoogga! Though understandably little stiff, yours is a programmatic move. I am still little short on time---I have users breathing down my neck. But let me say this much adeer on your two-step approach: A- Reform the TFG, get rid of Warlord A/Y and other criminals in that organization to show good faith. This will leave government institutions in place but only removes known criminals from the political scene. The key word here is reform, and I am in agreement with that. Details of who goes and who stays can easily be ironed out provided the process of doing so are agreed up on. B- Timetable for Xabashi troop withdrawal This is a must, and without it, peace will remain afar. But again this should not be a prerequisite for sitting down with other parties. Rather it must top on the agenda when such meetings take place. I will come back with more responses IA.

^^Che, you said before as much, and I believe I reasoned with you! The irony is you are dwelling in the past & present grievances of the destruction of Xamar yourself and on that bases reject to sit down with other party in this conflict... Norhtern ,saaxiib I am very short on time but I must say that I did not mean to suggest that Asmara side alone is at fault here. Tfg excels in the art of speaking from both sides of its proverbial mouth; Cadde says he would meet with each and every one in Somalia’s conflict while Yey contradicts and says he would not meet with specific folks. But the reconciliation we are talking is larger than mere political stances of this entity. I can assure you if the Asmara team announces its intent to meet with tfg, as it’s, the dynamics of Somali politics would change a bit, and to the better. But it takes two to tango as the clichés goes and the tfg’s inconsistencies have not lost on me. When the survival of Somalis are at stake, political conditions intended to save face are quite meaningless in the large purpose. Ps—Hunguri have those brothers join SOL…so we can hear their perspective as well!

^^ Good review, Baashi!

^^ Care to name them so we can deal with them, brother! Unless you are full of crap! I happen to think that Ethiopia stands to prevail because some of us are so dim in their intelligence that they fail to appreciate the advantages their enemy has over them.!

Labo X , to abandon the demands of shariicah implementation, for now, over a divided people in a failed state would be an easy compromise. To abandon qabil rivalry would be much, much harder in my mind. One is thing for certain though, as long we have the kind of mindset some brothers promoted in this thread, Ethiopia stands to prevail. ps—I just cant blve some brothers cant divorce themselves from the positions parties of Somali conflict take, or don’t take! pps, Northern, understanding on the need for Ethiopia to withdraw to restore peace and stability in Somalia is indeed very important. I don’t believe any party would insist on Ethiopia’s presence if sticking points were addressed. But how can they establish such understanding if they even refuse to sit down with each other? The other thing is if the Asmara team was able to meet with the UN, and is ready to deal with America (these are the powers that bestowed political legitimacy and gave financial and military support to the tfg), their refusal to sit down with other side of Somali conflict just does not add up.

^^ Brother, peace and stability (political and economic as well) are prerequisites for sharicah governance! Despite your theatrical response, I don’t believe I made a disturbing call when I suggested to exact political stability Courts will and should compromise on the shariicah implementation.

^^lol@Waterloo Oodweyne, Ever heard of the story of the poor old nomad who, after seeing rich businessman, pulled his choice he-goat out of his herd to mark him own share in the said rich man’s merchandise! And when denied on the basis of scantiness, resorted prayer against the inevitable success! Orgigayga Caarrow allow lagu calaameeyo Coodkii la raacshaba allow caabuq lagu sheego Nin walaalkii ciil qabo ma cuno calaf tujaareedee. Allow…. I bet someone is doing that …

Originally posted by NGONGE: All very tempting, saaxib. All also may be true. But that's just one way of looking at things and since America did not come out and say it clearly (without using vague diplomatic speak), one has to give credit where credit is due. Somaliland used to be dismissed as an idea of one clan supported by some western intellectuals and academics. It was said that Somaliland does not appear in the radars of those that matter and is ignored by the international community! But, recently, Somaliland has been working on creating the maximum exposure for itself and attracting as much interest as it can draw. All of a sudden, the president goes on a visit to America, whilst somewhere else, a British member of parliament throws up a question about Somaliland to the British Prime Minster! And now, to top all that public relations effort off, the highest American representative in Africa arrives in an open state visit to Somaliland. Surely you would not consider all this flurry of activity as a mere coincidence? Now you may be correct and this might not result in anything. But you're refusing to entertain the thought that the opposite may also be possible and that's what I object to. Look at it this way: Imagine JB falling for Ms Frazer and spending years trying to get her to go on a date with him. As we all know, JB is hopeless and keeps laughing at the wrong times. We all suspect that Ms Frazer will never look at him and find it laughable that he could persuade her to go on that date with him (we don't even entertain the thought that she might accept his subsequent marriage proposals and say YES). Now, if hopeless, bumbling, selfish and dreamy JB does pull it off and manages to get Ms Frazer to go on a date with him would you not worry he just might go further and marry the damn woman? Where in the past, she did not listen or hear a word he said, she's now sitting with him on a candle lit table. She may have her own plans and designs for him, but since she is sat there and JB has the opportunity to fully charm the stars and stripes of her, nobody can sit here and safely predict the outcome. What you can only say is that the momentum is with JB and that since he managed to get this far he may yet sweep Ms Frazer of her feet. Of course, there is also the possibility he may slurp his tea, pick his nose and try to speak with his mouth full. But since (probably) the entire world knew of this date, I'm sure JB would have been well drilled and prepared for it by now. Do you follow? Still find the reasons for optimism erroneous? Well put indeed. JB’s love story is well known in these boards! I do not doubt the genuineness of his efforts neither do I deny him the credit of finally being able to be in the same room with her. But I looked at it from a different angle saaxiib.

Originally posted by Northerner: Xiin, as I have already stated, the discussion must go on from simply repeating the need for negotiations to discussing the facts on the gound and how the present situation can be changed to something more favourable for the people. In my previous posts I stated the need for a consensus/understanding on the need to remove the Ethios from Somalia before any discussion can take place (the occupation was the main reason opposition parties are refusing to peace talks the last time I checked). What do you think? Is this the only way to go? If not why not? You see good Xiin, I'm trying to be realistic here and wish to discuss the way forward. Fluffy words are fine but lets get real akhi. Northern, brother facts in Somalia are dismal and point to a failed state whose people are being abused as we type away these words on this screen. As I requested from the other brothers before just for a second forget about what positions warring functions are presently taking and tell me what position YOU as an individual take on the question of unconditional negotiation between all Somali parties. Ethiopia is a poor nation and her presence on our soil is empowered by our division and maintained by America. The fat woman that visited Hargeysa this week is the top supervisor for all of this and you know it. The UN is footing some of the bills tfg technocrats are getting. Yet our Asmara team was able to meet with them and discuss the way forward. Ethiopia must withdraw is a noble slogan but impractical at the moment as the powers-that-be insist on her occupation in Somalia due to their security concerns and fears of a power vacuum. As you can see I am being realistic and rejecting the commands of my heart (fight and die in dignity). You on the other hand are clinching to conditions that you know can hardly be met in a timely manner. Again before you ask me about the practical steps and the possible ways to create favorable conditions on the ground to make the outcome of the said reconciliation more profitable, don’t you think you need to embrace it first quite firmly? I mean, I am still sensing a measure of timidity in your stance brother! Jac, If you did not notice it already, this is not the type of discussion where a lazy one-liner can participate in!

somalipride, brother, your fat boy is naked, no one in the regions where the original architects of what’s now the defunct PL admin come from will offer the political clothes he so desperately needs. And also you two should minimize the embarrassment; there is no Puntland to speak of!

NGONGE , in the wise words of الألبيري: أراك تحب عرسا ذات خدر أبـتَّ طـلاقها الأكياس بتا تنام الدهر ويحك في غطيط بـها حـتى إذا مـت انتبهتا فـكم ذا أنت مخدوع وحتى مـتى لا ترعوي عنها وحتى ^^That’s that! But which of my hasty arguments you thought was tempting? 1) Conflict in the south can hardly be contained, and America’s current admin thinks of it as much. 2) Current US handlers in the region would like to maintain their point of contacts in power (Kenya is a good example). 3) These efforts by the state department are organized more likely toward creating one central authority in Somalia.

Yaa Goat man, what happened in Mogadishu last year was not a reconciliation. It was a useless gathering precisely because opposing parties could not partake in it. I hope i got that out of the way. Now if you are for reconciliation with no conditions attached out of the conviction that Somalis in their present condition can’t do any serious fight to anyone then your subsequent queries would make sense. And I shall try answering them. 1- If Ethiopians are staying in Somalia for another year, what approach should Somalis take? I.e. Should Somalis stop resistance for the time being as everyone is dying according to you? In the face of a united somalis, Ethiopias would be worrying about thier own stability and would not be insisting staying on our soil. That does not mean they wouldn't frustrate our efforts toward unity. But even if Ethiopians decide to continue thier occupation after somalis had politically reconciled then you would agree with me whatever somalis decide would be more effective than the half measaure strategy some are currently employing. 2- Should they unite first, reconcile and then fight the good fight against the occupiers? Yes. They should remove thier political differences through compromise, revive the organs of their state, and prepare themselves the regional challenges that await them. 3- Should Alshabab and I.C.U abandon demands for Shariah law and join and compromise with a secular government? Yes. Absulately. And I know Courts would compromise on this. I dont know about al shabaab though. Now these are short and quick answers. I shall return and expand on them when time permits. edit: Che, we need a paradigm shift in our thinking. I want you to make up your mind and give me a yes vote for reconciliation regardless of what the involved parties's stands are. They don’t operate in a vacuum. They will change their positions soon… ps-- dont you know by now that Yey is foolish old man? Why do you care what he says?

Ismac yaa mufakir, the conflict in the south can't be contained. Interested external actors dont believe that it could be contained. And the reason US handlers support SL’s upcoming election is to prevent change of admin in Hargeysa. Now that may upset some of my Northern brothers here in SOL.

Juje got it right. America is massaging the landers to relax them into entering negotiation with their equals in south Somalia! There is a talk of an upcoming peace talks in Cairo between certain functions in the south. If progress were made in Cairo, and no flare of violence brakes out in Sool then don’t count the Hargeysa admin out of the subsequent talks. Watch this space .

^^I didn’t ask you about al shabaab’s position on reconciliation or tfg’s or America’s for that matter! What I asked you my good friend is your position! Your explanation implies if these entities change their current position so do you! edit: Northern, you are dancing around the whole point of this discussion adeer. Are you as an individual for a dialog or not? Do you agree with the Somalia’s priority of solving their internal problems first before facing external challenges? Do you see a compromised settlement between the warring parties as the only way out of this mess or you subscribe to the fatal notion that says until tfg is defeated and Ethiopia is driven out no political compromise can be reached?

No reconciliation because: 1) TFG is evil entity, it’s a collection of criminals and warlords and to sit down with them would amount to giving them undeserving legitimacy. 2) Victory is around the corner. The resistance against Ethiopian occupation has begun to produce tangible results. There is only one year left for this defunct entity to expire. Let al shabaab wait it out…they will win. 3) Ethiopians must withdraw first (I am not sure if this means from all of Somali regions or just only from Xamar), and unless that takes place talking about reconciliation is just too gullible…dishonest. Those, more or less, are the reasons presented for the vote against reconciliation at this point of time. I pondered on each one of these arguments. And here is what I estimated for these positions to mean. With all due respect to them, brothers who made those arguments come across as resentful and angry, and rightfully so, about the injustices and the atrocities committed by the Ethiopian army BUT equally inconsiderate about the consequences and suffering their approach would cause if Somalia’s trajectory is not altered by peaceful means. Their argument in its entirety, despite their eloquence and the rhetorical bullets they use, rests purely on raw emotions (look at Goat’s or Kashafa’s posts). And it’s in that fog of emotion that sadly blinds them to see what the point of having any reconciliation really is. The Mogadishu atrocities these brothers so readily cite are the very reason I am calling for a truce. It’s very simple folks: in the Mogadishu battle Ethiopia won and Somalis lost. And if we continue fighting in the today’s global context, we are risking a lasting defeat. That may damage your pride but it’s a fact. Somalis are not that many in numbers. And in the rate we are dying the very survival of our kind is really at stake. Check this, brothers: Ethiopia’s soldiers are performing their duties in the furthest corner of their nemesis territory. Their goal is not to stay in Xamar and occupy it. Their mission is to put you down while you are weak and they are strong. When you celebrate for liberating a police station, and perhaps in the process kill dozens of your own, in the heart of your capital, it signifies your loss. Every hoobiye you fire represents an opportunity for Ethiopian army to assess and eliminate your newly found strength, cause the exodus of your own civilians, and vandalize and destroy your infrastructure. If they withdraw today they would do so knowing that their mission of setting Somalia back to at least few decades is done. But they would also withdraw knowing that they have accomplished something even more valuable than that. They would know that the likes of Kashafa and Xoogga would have enough bitterness and anger to continue fighting against what is Somalis in the Ethiopia’s books but dabodhilifs in Kashafa’s mindset. With such narrowness in your outlook, and resentments against certain segments of Somalia’s political groupings, you are indeed a great asset for Ethiopia to achieve her objectives, unwittingly of course. The residual of anger and grievance left behind by the events of the last year will have what it takes for us to regress even deeper into our civil war. But you don’t care. You really don’t. No humanitarian thought. No national consideration. Anyone who disagrees with you is either dishonest, or dabodhilif, or, even worse, you would find a way to impeach their integrity and indict their credibility. If Goats of this world and Kashafa’s of this world are the soomalida xalaasha ah who supposedly will save Somalia and its people, Somalia is doomed---fated to fail and disintegrate into small pieces. Wa cala suumaali salaam! Look at brother Northern! The man finds rational way to support an entity that is securely in Ethiopia’s column. Yet, somehow, he also finds and at times articulates reasons to oppose dialog and compromise to settle the conflict in Xamar! What gives brother? Resentment against an old man who also happens to be terminally sick? Lack of appreciation of the enormous consequences continuing this fight with a foe whose military capacity and organized army we have no match for would have? Convenient dislike of what the tfg stands for? What is it yaa N? Folks, you must understand our divisions are real and deep. And divided people, as we are, can never succeed in their struggle against a united foe. Without political reconciliation, Somalia’s conflict will even get messier, and the current humanitarian crisis even more dire. Truth, peace, justice, and forgiveness are what Somalis and Somalia need today. If Somalis political divide had similar goals and concepts of governance, there wouldn’t be any need for reconciliation. But because Somalis have fundamental political differences over which they so violently fought each other and sought the help of Ethiopia, our historical enemy, to tip the military balance, we must wise up, shun this puritan approach of this-is-evil-and-that-is-devil crap, and accept the painful fact that no one side can win this even if one side entertains it could. Our politics is qabiil based with a secular tilt. But our masses are ripe for a government that transcends beyond tribal boundaries, and reflects their religious values. But peace and stability must come first before such maturity is harvested. And how can I end this without exposing the utter absurdity of the assertion that there can be no reconciliation because too much blood has been shed, too many muslimaat have been gang raped, or too much property have been destroyed. Isn’t that the very reason we are in dire need for reconciliation, brother? I mean don’t you see it… Notes on the margin =================== Ikhyaarta, I care my people more than I do about al shabaabs (a segment of my people). If one wants to fight Ethiopia and its interest it does not has to be Xamar. But I oppose the strategy of fighting in the name of shacbu soomaal while showing no consideration of what the enemy would do to the very shacab whose name one claims to fight for. You know it takes some time to assess your strategy but one can’t stubbornly continue implementing the same failed strategy. And it’s about time to change it. Don’t get me wrong for I love these al shabaab fighters. I think they are wonderful people with good intentions. But to be brutally truthful I’ve concluded that in the short run our goals differ and diverge. For now the goal should be to unite the people through compromise, and NOT to settle scores with Ethiopia. The latter is a long term goal.