Gabal, you do know more than I do that reer Gedo are not politically homogeneous. So ruling out their allegiance for Sharif when Sharif’s military chief is a Gedo son is at best premature. Since the base is not secure however I agree this time it’s unlikely Gedo will play active role from the clannish sense in this new conflict. But as soon as alshabaab’s military power is weakened, and their forces withdraw from Gedo as they will, Gedo’s Diaspora organizations will have a breathing room to organize for that region in a manner that’s independent of alshabaab’s or HI’s influence. Both groups mind you have strong presence in Gedo region. As who will play the Prussians role, I think TFG and HI in Jubbooyinka are fated to form alliance against alshabaab. It’s becoming increasingly possible for such a link to be established. The political maneuverings has already started in Nairobi, and even if alshabaab defeat HI in the current skirmishes in the bushes of Kismayo, in the end it will be almost impossible for them to hold Kismayo under the current conditions.

three points. whether they win this specific battle or not, alshabaab myth of military superiority has been broken. HI Islam in Jubbooyinka clearly does not see things eye to eye with the ones hiding in Benadir. rumor has it Kenya is playing active part in this conflict

Mar labaad aan ku noqdo Gartu waxay u dhexeysaa Hunguri iyo A&T Hunguri siduu garta isku siinayyo uma gar laha, laakiin waa laga gardaranyahay lets not dramatize this gar ikhyaarta Xukun & Xaal marin: Nin nool ninkii si calan ah geeri aan jirin ugu sheega, maxaa xeer ka ahaa? Ninka dumarka [ammaan iyo cay ba] sheeka rag ku dara, maxaa iyanna xeer ka ahaa? Haddaan xeer hore jirin, haddaan mid cusub samaynaynaa. A&T, maahmaahdii aan postigayga hore ku sheegay buu aqrisan dabadeedna garta wuu qaadan ee hala sugo

...markaasuu soo galay,mise shaah ma yaal, NGONGE oo buurigii soo cabayna waa dhex fadhiyyaa.Fariisuu maagay mise magaadkii iyo tubaakadii nuune saliga agtiisa ku illoobay baa meesha waran. MS DD buu u dhawaaqay mise afur bay doonatay. JB oo booskii MS DD ka kacday u iljabinayya baa halkeer kasoo jeeda iska fariisay, asagoo shaah ku dhufan Maah-maah: garta bahasha la yiraahdo waxaa bi'iyya nin wax ka mida ka saara, iyo kan waxaan ku jirin ku dara. waa qodob. Qodobka labaad. waxaan laga garramin ma jiraan. somalidu xatta waxay u garnaqeen laba laamood oo sinnaa, oo markey baxeeen midi toostay,midina qaloocatay. Oday reer Mudugh ah baa gartaa naqay,wuxuu eedii saaray dabaysha. iyadaa ka mas'uul buu odogu go'aamiyey Qodobka sadexeed. nin maqaayad shaah ka cabbayya oo markaa damcay ragga inuu u warramo baa asagii war la siiyey, waxaa la yiri hebelow wiilkaagi curadka ahaa maantay rag bay garrameen. gartiinna waa laga helay. wuxuu yiri, halaga helee ma qaatay. saa la yiri, haa. Nin raga ah weeyye buu yiri. war maxaa haray? mise waa fasiraa, oo weliba Hunguri waa rer bariyye, wiilka galbeedka ka yimid fasir ma u baahanyahay? ps JB--iiga iljabiyey maaha kan, hargeysaawiga ah

the split of HI as predicted has begun

Originally posted by Jalle Liqaye: the law was passed and failed miserably during the Barre era. The law was good,and did not fail. It was broken by the very people who suppose to enforce it. Ina Iidaan Faarax captured it in his undying verses : Shil ma helin duqdii mana ay dhiman oo shaarna loo geliyye Iyadoo shinkeedii qabtay shaanbisaa weliyye Shanshadeeda ruuxii necbaa oo sheega la afduubye waxaa shooki loo dhigay wadani sheeg haddaad garatto? he also pointed out that the national procession of qabiil jenaazah was sham Show waa marnaa nacashkii aad daba shalaabteenne Misna shay la aas aan la tabin shaqalla saarnaaye Xabaashii wixii lagu shabaqay sheeg haddaad garatoo

Gartaan anaa naqayya Ms DD ragi waa shaah. Shaah ina adeer NGONGE please shiishadaadii doono, hana noo imaan adoon dhamaysan

Originally posted by Jafe101: Alshabaab waa in cashar lama ilaa waan ah loo dhigaa maadaamoo oo ay ku caasiyoobeeeen aabayaashii soo barbaarshey. in my assesment, alshabaabs will be willing to withdraw from other parts of the country including Mogadishu to hold onto Jubbooyinka. they have not been defeated yet ...the war has just begun awoowe

Sarakiisha ciidamada DF Somalia ee gobolka Hiiraan oo sheegay iney wadaan dhaqdhaqaaq ay ku damacsan yihiin iney ku galaan B/weyne Saraakiisha ciidamada Dowladda Somalia ee ku sugan halka loo yaqaano deegaanka Ceel gaal oo ku yaala duleedka magaalada B/weyne ee gobolka Hiiraan ayaa ka hadlay dhaqdhaqaaqyo ciidan oo ay halkaasi ka wadeen saacadihii la soo dhaafay iyaga iyo ciidamada Itoobiya ee jooga deegaanka Kala beyr ee gobolka Hiiraan. Taliyaha ciidamada dowladda ee gobolka Hiiraan Maxamed Nuur Cagajoof oo la hadlayey warbaahinta ayaa sheegay in dhaqdhaaqyada ay ka wadaan deegaano ka tirsan gobolka Hiiraan ay yihiin kuwo ay ugu diyaar garoobayaan weerar ay damacsan yihin iney kula wareegaan magaalada B/weyne ee gobolka Hiiraan oo ay hada maamulaan ururka xisbul Islaam. Waxaa uu intaa ku daray in Cagajoof ineysan jirin ciidamo Itoobiyaan ah oo ay u kaashan doonaan weerarkaasi isla markaana ciidamada dowlada ay yihiin kuwo isku filan oo awood u leh iney galaan magaalada B/weyne kalana wareegaan xoogaga ka soo horjeeda ee hadda maamula waxaana hadalkan ka soo yeeray saraakiisha ciidamada dowlada ee gobolka Hiiraan uu ku soo beegmayaa xilli masuuliyiinta ururka xisbul Islaam ee magaalada B/weyne ay sheegeen iney dhowaan maamul u sameyn doonaan gobolkaasi.

^Rag rag dhalay now next time i come to London (some parts of me visited the place) i shall sit down for a tea session with you

^one uderstands where you coming from praying for the continuation of somali tragedy under different conditions has been the only consistent prayer secessionist folks had for the last twenty odd years

Sharif baa xiray baa laga yaabaa

I appreciate your reasoning but my argument banks on the sheer fact alshabaab opened another front, and a more serous one at that…Gedo boys breaking heavily toward HI will definitely help but it’s unlikely.

gedonet

Oodweynow, yours would have been a good comeback for a previous retort of mine had it been posted in the appropriate thread . alshabaabs hasty war against their ideological brethren and the consequence it holds for them is the topic at hand. there are factors if combined that could easily finish alshabaab phenomenon off. But it’s also likely even in the absence of such convergence of political factors that alshabaab’s ascendance could be seriously halted. As I have noted this war has already sucked whatever little oxygen alshabaab’s theological argumentation had out, and as a result they are no longer occupying the righteous summit as it were. Politically they have met their waterloo, as it’s the locals they are fighting, not an Ethiopia regiment or AMISOM troops. keep in mind, HI will most likely split and the tfg will have opening to ally itself with the one fighting with alshabaab. The gedo boys are not for the rent, and are struggling as most somalis are in the south.

Sayid i was a teacher since I was a young man, i should not be the one to belittle the profession M Hasan is an author of many books, some of them being the best selling in early 70s, he was one of the leaders of the sole institution that produced national teachers,Lafoole, he founded high performing charter schools, he is an elder who is known for conses building...one cant reduce such a large contritubtion to a mere teaching... adigu you are doing a good job given the organization skills i am seeing here, and your ability to pull different talents from differnt backgrouns and regional loyalty to a greater cause but in relation to this man you are son who has just begun to walk

the wise ones are planning for a more cohesive Somalia after alshabaab’s exit. they are not hopping for the anarchy to continue under different conditions as can be detected in the sentiments some nomads expressed here. as whether the Waterloo comparison is valid, time will tell. but the point should not be lost simply because one is bitter about what has been, the anology is rather about the mistakes made by the french general that hurried his defeat and the apparent strategic blunders alshabaab are embarking on today. indeed there are paralels. if nothing else one should appreciate the certainty with which Napoleon arose with as far as the wining the battle is concern for he breakfasted in leisure while his opposing general remained awake in the better part of that night writing war dispatches and at one point stating his intent to retreat to Brussels if Prussians could not provide the cavalry the battle required. that Napoleon confidence is not that different from alshabaab’s flagrant military campaigns to finish off the other side despite the consequence that could pose for them. Canole and Kambooni troops are in the bushes, planning for a campaign to frustrate alshabaab’s rule if not driving them out from the city in a fashion that is akin to the humble beginnings that brought these alshabaab fighters to the current vanity. And i am not even mentioning the eternal rupture this will cause to the Keligii Muslim movement

There is nothing wrong with that profession, sayid. But to attribute it to Mohamed Hasan is to bury his credentials. The man is so much more than a mere schoolteacher like you

There are many student of history on this site so I shall not narrate the historicity of the battle of Waterloo, nor shall I repeat the grounds for Duke of Willington’s initiative to position his army as he did or Napoleon’s rationale behind taking the risk he took to drive the British army out to the sea and knock the Prussians out of the war. But I see parallel between alshabaab’s desperate wars against other Islamist components in and around Kismayo to the infamous defeat that was exacted on Napoleon troops. As the preparatory effort of all out war against alshabaab continuous in Xamar, with Xizbul Islam effectively taking over Beledweyne, and Baydhabo being what it is strategically untenable if seriously attacked, Kismayo in theory is the only prize alshabaab can seriously contend to snatch, and reasonably defend. The region has been a known strong hold for their military basis and hide outs, and has the type of topography that could sustain a long drawn out guerilla war. Sensing some degree of seriousness from other Islamist components in Kismayo in terms of establishing a more unified administration, alshabaab started a war of choice to eliminate their opponents. But their opponents are becoming stronger, and the war is taking other dimensions, which were initially not foreseen by alshaab. Xasan Aweys may be sheepish in all of this, but others are putting a serious and fierce fight to tackle alshabaab’s madness. What begun as a mere squabble about how to equitably divide the revenue from the Kismayo port, may indeed become the turning point of the religious wars in the south. As I said many times before despite the novelty of alshabaab fighters, they will be killed as they killed, and this war will at minimum put many of them out of action, it will trap some, and detain them preventing spilling other Muslims blood in the name of religion. For those of them who are in the knowing this conflict may give them some pointers regarding the apparent deficit of wisdom and lack of sustainable strategy, others will see this absurdity for what it is, and may abandon the project. The utterances of Ina Yacqub could no longer be accepted credibly, his voice does not resonate. If he was the deliver of victory news from battlefronts before, he is now akin a man who breaches loft ideals while he reeks of hypocrisy. It’s already a waterloo politically and theologically, and it may as well be so militarily.

It appears that Xizbul Islam made progress milaterilly

Dagaal ka socda Birta dheer oo ku taal duleedka Kismaayo ee xarunta Gobolka Jubada Hoose Posted to the Web Oct 06, 17:19 Kismaayo:-Afhayeenka Golaha Shuurada ee Ururka Xizbul Islaam Sh.Ismaaciil cadow oo dhawaan la hadlay Idaacada quraanka Kariimka ee magaalada Muqdisho ayaa wax lala yaabo ku tilmaamay hadalkii ka soo yeeray Afhayeenka maamulka walaayada Jubooyinka ee Al-shabaab Sheekh Xassan Yacquub oo uu ku sheegtay in ay dhamaan qabsadeen fariisamihii Xizbul Islaam ee duleedka Kismaay. Dhinac kale Masuul sare oo ka tirsan Xizbul islaam kuna ag dhow goobta uu dagaalku ka socda ayaa u sheegay Halgan.net in uu ogyahay oo kaliya in dagaal socdo waxaan uu wax kama jiraan ku tilmaamay hadalka ka soo yeeray Al-shabaab oo ah in ay qabsadeen fariisamihii Xizbul islaam. Afhayeenka Golaha Shuurada ee Ururka Xizbul Islaam Sh.Ismaaciil Cadow ayaa la filayaa in saacadaha soo socda uu saxaafada la hadli doono. Warka dagaalka ka socda duleedka Kismaayo oo faah faahsan dib ayaan idin kaga soo tabin doonaa Insha Allaahu.

^^Waa markaagii Intaanan threadkan arag midda kale xagga politics sections kan kugu ammaanay. caku

Freedom is in the head and not in waving chequered maryo and singing calanyahow ha dhicin, when all moral values of the fore-fathers is thrown out of the window. In fact, if such things were ever to be good enough to the people who value their identity and islaanimo over anything, then I would have paraded Ina-iley's Landcruiser and eye-catching villa's and Mohamud Dirir's four-storey plaza in Addis. I would have compared the academic achievments of so many in the so-called 'region 5' to the Admas bogus diploma wielding youngesters in Hargeisa and would have told you, "look, how being a servant of Ethiopia gets us smarter". But I never get distracted from the bigger picture and the fact that I deserve better than the half-eaten bone thrown at me by the occupiers. Abtigiis at his best

^^Awoowe Sharifka sida loo quruxsaday was intentional. And Mohamed Hasan played a big and positive role. If it’s Hiiraan, I can understand it. No surprise there.

perhaps this is what Aweys was looking for,namely that alshabaab will never fight 'Xizbul Islam'. And that means him Muqdisho: Al- Shabaab oo ka hadlay hadalkii Hogaamiyaha Xisbul Islaam. 6. oktober 2009 - APL Muqdisho(AllPuntland)- Sarkaal sare oo ka tirsan Xarakada Al- Shabaab ayaa shaaca ka qaaday in hadalkii Hogaamiyaha Xisbul Islaam oo ahaa mid aan loo dhameyn, wuxuuna cadeeyey in dagaaladii ugu dambeeyey ee ka dhacay magaalada Kismaayo, aysan masuuliyadooda laheyn, ayaga kaliya ah, balse ay qeyb wanaagsan ku lahaayeen Madaxda Ururka Xisbul Islaam. Sarkaalkan oo ka hadlayay magaalada Kismaayo ayaa sheegay in ay Xisbul Islaam, qaarkood hoos ka taageersan yihiin dawladda Faderaalka ee Soomaaliya, kuwaas oo uu sheegay in ay ka been sheegayaan dagaalada ay ka wadaan gudaha dalka Soomaaliya, isagoo markaas ula jeeday dhinacyadii dhawaan kula dagaalamay gudaha magaalada Kismaayo. Al- Shabaab ayaa sheegay in aysan marnaba diyaar uaheyn dagaal ay lagalaan Xisbul Islaam, balse waxa ay sheegeen in ay la dagaalameen shaqsiyaad ka soo horjeeday Shareecada Islaamka, waa sida ay hadalka udhigeene. Sheekh Axmed Madoobe Islaan ayaa dhawaan la dagaalamay Al- Shabaab,waxa ayna ka saareen gudaha magaalada Kismaayo, isagoo hada ku sugan deegaano ka baxsan magaalada Kismayo, halkaasi oo lasheegay in ay Xarakada Al- Shabaab udirtay ciidamo kula sii dagaalama. Dagaaladii ugu dambeeyey ayaa dhacay xalay, waxaana guulo sheegtay Xisbul Islaam, balse Al- Shabaab ayaan wali si toos ah uga jawaabin, qaraarka ah in wada hadal lafuro, isla markaasna ay xabada joojiyaan, inkastoo ay shaaciyeen in aysan marnaba la dagaalameyn Xarakada Xisbul Islaam. Labadan Urur ee dagaalamaya ayaa horay uga soo horjeestay dawladda Soomaaliya, waxa ayna ugu dambeyntii dhinacyadooda ku dagaalameen gudaha magaalada Kismaayo ee xarunta Jubada hoose oo ay hada isku hayaan. F. C. Maxamed AllPuntland