Qandalawi;732712 wrote: So now Faroole has also received similar invitation and headed off to Jubba. I wonder what is the significance of this Siilaanyo visit for the secessionist. LOL. That would kill Oodweyne's excitement...

In 2003, Oodweyne made more politically profound commentary on the status of Somaliland vis-a-vis the Western world.

^^I think you would be better advised to let go the steam, ya Oodka. Truth is Somaliland is part of Somalia and NO amount of tabloid praise, hired professional pens propaganda, and flew in politicians commentary from distant lands will change that reality. What secessionist dream of and the delusional world they live in is the stuff of fairy tale awoowe, and I shall not bother to deflate the separatist balloon Xaaji Xunjuf’s of SOL are kiting around here. But I must say this much to you: your holly cow lacks the characteristics of a viable state; it lacks the strategic incentive for the West to buy into your recognition proposition; it does not even pass the feasibility test as the specter of a new state solely on the basis of political grievance presents more threats than opportunities to the stability of the region …there is a good reason why twenty years of hard work to secure ictiriaaf in the context of a failed state that could not keep you inline does not come to fruition. Now one would be unfair not to acknowledge the baby steps Somaliland region took toward establishing reliable political system. I say baby steps because democracy is not about elections only. There are three pillars for sustainable democratic governance: free and fair elections, independent judicial system, and strong civic institutions i.e free press and like. Somaliland has embraced the first and implemented it for a good measure. But the other two, important pillars are not even in primitive stage. So much of the democratic characterization is in relative terms. As the recent UN Security Council in Nairobi made clear to your reps, the territorial integrity of Somalia is intact even in the current context of failed state. Kalshaale, and Lasaanood conflict crystallized the instability that could result in from your separatist efforts. So don’t take the daydream quite seriously…

Che, I really do not see any progress in Somali peninsula. Somaliland is at best a stagnant region unless clannish fervor and the superficial sense of unity of purpose can be counted as a permanent progressive feature. Libaaxow awoowe waan ku salaamay, halkaan waayadaan waqti baan u waayey ee Oodweyne iyo jaalkiisa waan maawelin lahaa

South Sudan, the Newest Nation, Is Full of Hope and Problems By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN JUBA, Sudan — After five decades of guerrilla struggle and two million lives lost, the flags are flapping proudly here in this capital. The new national anthem is blasting all over town. People are toasting oversize bottles of White Bull beer (the local brew), and children are boogieing in the streets. “Free at Last,” reads a countdown clock. But from the moment it declares independence on Saturday, the Republic of South Sudan, the world’s newest country and Africa’s 54th state, will take its place at the bottom of the developing world. A majority of its people live on less than a dollar a day. A 15-year-old girl has a higher chance of dying in childbirth than she does of finishing primary school. More than 10 percent of children do not make it to their fifth birthday. About three-quarters of adults cannot read. Only 1 percent of households have a bank account. Beyond that, the nation faces several serious insurrections within its own sprawling territory and hostilities with northern Sudan, its former nemesis. It is clearly an underdog story. So many people here embody the distance traveled and the hopes to come. James Aguto, a former child soldier and longtime guerrilla fighter, now delivers babies. Mr. Aguto is a newly minted clinical officer, working in a government hospital, and his journey from taking life to sustaining it makes him an apt symbol for the transition this country is trying to make. “There was one night I delivered six babies, six babies in one night!” he said. “I was so happy. I was making development here. I was showing that I had skills.” Mr. Aguto now wants to be a doctor. “I have that spirit,” he explained. The nation will certainly need it. More than 2,300 people have been killed in ethnic and rebel violence this year, with at least a half-dozen rebel groups, some with thousands of fighters, prowling the bush, attacking government soldiers, terrorizing civilians, and stealing cattle and even children. The hospital where Mr. Aguto works is a case in point. In one bed lies a thin young man with a huge cast on his leg. “Abyei,” the man grunted, referring to the disputed area on the border of northern and southern Sudan that is claimed by both sides. It is considered one of the many potential trouble spots that could plunge this region back into war. He was shot there in May, when the northern Sudanese army invaded. Nearby is another young man, hobbling around with a walker. “Unity State,” he said. “A militia.” He was shot as well, in another tense border area. Ethnicity is a consistent fault line here. The government is dominated by the Dinka, the biggest group in southern Sudan, and some of the toughest rebel armies are commanded by members of the Nuer, a historic rival. “This is just tribal fighting,” Mustafa Biong Majak, a South Sudan government spokesman, said with a dismissive wave of his hand, arguing that the clashes posed no threat to stability. “Let them die.” But many people here fear that after the glow of independence wears off, the Nuer and the Dinka, who fought viciously during the north-south civil war, will become locked in conflict again. And even within the Dinka-dominated government forces, there are deep problems. Government troops routinely take sides in local land disputes and battles over cattle, and recently soldiers have been hijacking United Nations trucks hauling food. Hunger is yet another challenge, with more than three million people in South Sudan, nearly 40 percent of the population, needing food aid to survive. Less than 10 miles outside the capital, in the village of Rajaf, people are fleeing the countryside because bandits are killing farmers and kidnapping children. The rule for visitors is to leave by sunset. “There is no security here,” said Rose Bojo, a tea seller. Insecurity is such a drain on resources that under the current budget, the government of South Sudan spends about $700 million on security-related matters — more than the budget for education, health care, electricity, roads and industry combined. But this is also a country of obvious possibilities. South Sudan produces about 375,000 barrels of oil per day, and though negotiators are still working on the specific formula of how the two Sudans — north and south — will share the oil, the south stands to make billions from its reserves. It has land, miles and miles of thick forests and fertile jungles, where the trees drip with vines and branches bend earthward, heavy with fruit. Still, in most villages, there is no electricity, no running water, no metal even. Barefoot boys dusted with the red dirt stirred up by passing trucks sell bottles of honey along the road. The South Sudan government says 83 percent of its people live in thatched-roof huts, a legacy of decades of marginalization. Even before Sudan declared independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956, southerners were clamoring for more rights and complaining about being treated as second-class citizens. South Sudan is mostly animist and Christian, culturally more akin to sub-Saharan Africa than northern Sudan, which is predominantly Muslim and dominated by Arabs. Southern rebels fought for years against the central government, and in 2005 the Bush administration helped broker a treaty between the sides that granted the south wide autonomy and the right to secede. This January, southerners voted by nearly 99 percent to form their own country, which is what will officially happen on Saturday in festivities to be attended by high-ranking Western officials and more than a dozen African leaders. Some of the expected guests, like President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and President Isaias Afewerki of Eritrea, are cautionary tales of what can happen when guerrilla leaders finally take power. Zimbabwe and Eritrea are considered among the most repressive countries in the world. But South Sudanese officials say that they are aware of the pitfalls, and that their government will be different. “If we had wanted to, we could have declared a five-year transition period from the beginning,” said Mr. Majak, the government spokesman. “But no, we didn’t do that. We held elections.” For the past six years, the southern Sudanese have essentially been running their own affairs, policing themselves, patrolling their borders, and wooing investment and development aid. International aid organizations are still going to play a crucial role here, especially in health and education. For example, Mr. Aguto, the bush fighter turned clinical officer, was trained by Amref, an aid group. He is now looking for sponsors to pay for medical school so he can become a pediatrician. “South Sudan started from zero,” he said. “Why shouldn’t we be able to transform?” Josh Kron contributed reporting.

^^Speaking on symbolism, Sharif goes to bigger, and more relevant gatherings than you can even dream of, including the UN, the mother goose of all the little kiddos Siilaanyo is bothering to visit. Laakin bal hadiyada odogu soo celiyo aan aragno

^^LOL Nice try Jacaylbaro. However, as good AwTusbaxle found out the hard way, few on this board can compose after the xiin . Look awoowe, I gave you the symbolism of the trip. If you are a man from Sheekh, you shall concede the substance of this argument.

Ceel dawlis dheer baad gacmaha soo dar leedahay'e Wixii Daahir soo waayey baad doon is leedahay'e Nin dudumo u qayshanahayoo daallan baad tahay'e The symbolism cannot be denied; a grief-stricken community (South Sudan) that has long sought to break from its historical tormentors wins its sovereignty and freedom. A separatist wanna-be (Somaliland) joins the spectators of the independence parade, perhaps to massage its deeply felt failure with the excitement of others success. And that is very much the spirit of Siilaanyo’s trip. The substance? Zilch.

Political Desperation All Over… Alshabaab is forced to appease the starving shacab by committing a cardinal sin (in its books), allowing western relief agencies to operate in areas under movement’s control. Siilaanyo jets off to the newly born state of South Sudan, perhaps to present secessionist’s begging bowl for recognition, a recognition bigger and more populous states avoided to embrace. Faroole, in a sign that he finally realizes that he presides a state with shrinking borders politically and security wise, has desperately begun to look inward by forming a hasty political commission while security exacerbates, and pirates thrive. TFG roommate leaders are facing increased irrelevancy in Somalia’s political theatre to the degree members of the parliament begun to urge the world not to send relief aides to the alshabaab-controlled areas. ...And Somalis as always are being fickle where ever they are

Xaglatoosiye did not fail. By any standard, he succeeded with flying colors. If you look at the political scene of the community concern before and after xaglatoosiye arrived the scene, you can see the difference.

NGONGE, it may also be the case that the old man is a political realist who wants to leave good legacy behind, and is determined to steer the ship as it were from the epic iceberg, whose existence (much less its deadly impact) eludes the separatist party on the deck... Jacayl, I agree experience is the ultimate guide for the old man here. Waa la midoobayaa laakiin sidii waagii hore hal mar layskuma soo boodayo, oo hag laysa siin maayo, ee waa gradual awoowe

^^I presume your born again p0litical activism for Somaliland cause has greatly contributed to your Somali proficiency Waxaan faa'ido lahayn waa yaryihiin, xattaa saxaratu fircoon, sixir-aqoontii bay Muuse (cs) ku raaceen .

^^Precisely my point, Jacayl. We like Siilaanyo's response, they are much, much better than Riyaale's.

^^Fiiri, NGONGE, xiin reer waqooyiguu ka warqabaa, siyaasadana xoogaa buu ka yaqaan That is expected, Jacaylbaro. But the days when Riyaale will respond , Wallaahi, Billaahi, Tallaahi baanan weligeen midoobayn, oo isku imaanayn, oo xattaa haddaad Ethiopian Airlines aad nala soo raacdaan, waa ka degeynaa, markaad Cadan aadaan Nairobi baan qabanaynaa ....those days are over awoowe

^^In either case, I was greatly misled about your Somali proficiency. Aw Tusbaxle, iyo gabdho reer London ah baa been ii sheegay.

Sharif said the right thing. Somaliland's response is not bad either. Take away the loud music, and listen to the receptive lyrics of ina Mohamed Omar, and one could see the warm up in progress indeed.

^^I didn't realize you can read AND comprehend news articles written in Somali

Gabbal;731099 wrote: Xiin- You seem stuck on the status quo and your observations are a disappointment. As a pragmatist, you should be able to look at the history, particularly the recent TFG history, and then realize you are merely in the eye of the storm. I neither have respect for, nor appreciation, for Sakiin or Sharif or their supposed "awe-inspiring politics". They are but two unworthy occupants whose tenure is temporary. Abdullahi Yusuf, who admittedly I do not like very much, but consider a class act with respect to his political maneuverings was president for four years and still saw being boot kicked out one morning. I have not seen this before, good Gabal, so pardon me for my belated response. I am not sure your above post reflect on my observations, but I am not the one to deny the fact that Sharif Ahmed had outmaneuvered his political nemesis quiet superbly in the latest political tussle, which was concluded in what is now called the Kampala Accord. The tussle was political in nature, and by logical extension any appraisal of its outcome should be based purely on the political terms it contains. To remind you here below are the original positions each of the disputants in that political tussle stated: Sharif Hassan: The parliament shall have three year extension, executive shall be disbanded without contextual consideration , and the presidency shall be contested by August 2011. Sharif Ahmed & Farmajo: One year extension for both institutions is needed for meaningful transition. When the powers-that-be spoke, it was Sharif Ahmed's position with a slight tweak that was adopted: one year extension for both institutions , apparently the PM has become a casualty of Sharif's political maneuvering to save his political skin (which is common in the realm of politics) but Farmaajo cabinet is expected to be largely preserved with the promotion of Farmaajo's right hand man. Sharif Hasan, though a tough nut to crack by nature, is indeed a wounded man. Whether good Abdiweli will say the last rites for this mischievous speaker remains to be seen. Of course this analysis does not speak to the controlled environment and the ground rules one will have to comply with in the current Somali politics, which honestly makes the whole exercise quite futile. I said it before, and I say it now, Sharif Ahmed significantly failed to bring any meaningful changes to the sad situation Somalia is in. But I have no sympathy for those who are geared to bring him down just to preside over the same failure i.e. working under same foreign imposed , NGO driven political framework that failed us for the last twenty years awoowe.

^^LOL@Gabal

^^Revelation on what ya ina Taleex? Sharif Ahmed, I repeat, is largely underestimated as a politician. Many thought he was cooked for a grand political hard landing, but as it turned out he beat the alliances back and got his initial position to prevail. The other guy, Sharif Hassan that is, is a mischievous cat with ten lives. He was left dead many times only to come back with vengeance .

Sharif Ahmed, the president, remains the most underestimated politician; Sharif Hassan the most mischievous.

Guys lets not personalize the conversation plz. Oodweyne is a fairly educated fellow. His views on the south are informed by his political convictions. In the end though, successionism will fail as it should, and the south as a matter of geography will remain a fertile land that attracts immigration from north and east alike. Coming back to the thread, I am little curious to know why good Abwaan sees problem in bridging the gap between Somalis especially between regional admins and tfg. What am I missing ya Abwaan?

Oodweyne got the sequence wrong from a Somali stand point.

At this point of transitional period, it is clear that outside forces are not interested in building capacity needed to defend transitional institutions much less defeat alshabaab. Nothing of substance has been achieved against alshabaab so far, and all AMISOM succeeded to do was to hold the forte so to speak, preventing complete overrun on major installations by alshabaab. Somalis are politically divided, and that is the source of alshabaab strength. The focus in what is left of this transition should therefore be on bridging gap between Somali people, holding all inclusive national conference to move forward.

How long he will be on the job before the powers-that-be intervene again is already known; one year. How long the transition will last will partly depend on his vision and capacity to lead ( I know he does not have that much influence today). Concentrating on 3 & 4 was what did away with those before him, repeating the same mistake will inevitably impede any progress he would've otherwise made.