^^Kenya will control the Kismayo port

^^Well pointing out why you are not welcoming Turkey's involvement and belittling her efforts to build schools is not akin to being livid, Mintid! It is that I know you very well on these boards that gives me the advantage to expose and assign motives to the nonsense you espouse here. Turkey did a great job. And we think her influence will only grow, not diminish as you seem to wish.

NGONGE, unless you deny that you are separatist who wishes Somalia ill, the only topic I can engage you with respect to Somalia is why your little project will not come to fruition. If you truly think that my position is inline with my tolka (clan, Puntland etc), then you are badly misinformed. Prof Abtigiis, you are just like your cousin in Nairobi a naked man who, after creating an online persona with unimpeachable reputation of nationalism and principles, fell for the cheap notion that Kenyan tanks can tip the balance in favor of your Azania. Sharif is my friend when he is on the side of what I think is the right side of history. He is useless for me when he jumps on and supports what I think is the latest attempt to derail the progress TFG was making.

^^realizing that Azania may not after all be as a result of Kenyan invasion, baad rabtaa inaan ka sheekeyno alternative solutions maaha, The Zack? :D Waryaa wax iskula har oo dhaantada yaree, adduunku sidaad mooday maahee

^^You are a joke It is only your delusion that makes you think you are different.It is also the reason you are livid with Turkey's help.

^^Right on Gheelle Che -Guevara;755220 wrote: Had Recep visited Hargaysa, different picture of Turkey would been painted but this secessionist had point, Somalis can't look to the outside world to solve their problems. True on political front. However, on development side, Somalis should actively seek and welcome any one who is willing to give them hand on that front.

^^Spare the swagger awoowe, you are not expert in the region as you seem to think you are. Turkey is a powerful nation in an important region. Second largest army in Europe, 16th Economy in the world with a rising growth, and imperial root. That the prime minister of Turkey visited a famine stricken Somalia was a significant event in the region. Turkish involvement is less than two months old, and you have major projects already taking shape; 300 hundred scholarships, infrastructure developments, full ambassador in the capital and the establishment of a direct link from Ankara to Mogadishu. All of that, and more to come Separatist waaxid

Talaado, November 01, 2011 (HOL) — Dowladda Turkiga ayaa ka hirgelisay magaalada Muqdisho ee xaruta dalka Soomaaliya iskuul dugsi sare ah oo ay wax ku baranayaan arday Soomaaliyeed, kaasoo la furay maalintii Isniinta ahayd ee lasoo dhaafay. Wasaaradda waxbarashada ee Soomaaliya ayaa soo dhaweysay furitaanka iskuulka iyadoo dowladda Turkiga ay sheegtay iskuulkan uu hordhac u yahay qorshayaal ay ku doonayso inay uga hirgeliso Soomaaliya iskuullo waxbarasho oo kala duwan. "Tani waa wax la yaab leh... ardayda iyo waalidiintu waa kuwo ku faraxsan inay helaan waxbarasho tayo leh," ayuu yiri wasiirka waxbarashada ee Soomaaliya Axmed Caydiid Ibraahim oo wareysi gaar ah siiyay wargeys kasoo baxa dalka Turkiga. Ardayda Soomaaliyeed ee wax ka baranaya iskuulkaas ayaa Isniintii xaadiray fasallada iskuulka iyadoo ay u billaabatay waxbarashada dugsiga sare, waxaana hirgeliyay iskuulkan hay'adda Nile Organization oo xarunteedu tahay dalka Turkiga. Hay'adda Nile ayaa sheegtay inay codsiyo ka heleen arday fara badan oo Soomaali ah kuwaasoo doonaya inay wax ka bartaan iskuulkan, waxayna xuseen in qorshaha iskuuulka uu yahay inay wax ku bartaan 250-arday oo keliya. Maamulka iskuulkan cusub Bülent Ergüneş ayaa sheegay in luuqadda wax lagu baranayo ay tahay Ingiriis, laakiin la barayo ardayda sidoo kale luuqadda dalka Turkiga, wuxuuna ku daray in ardayda ay sannadka hore ay qaadan doonaan waxbarasho deg-deg ah. "Xisaab, bay'oloji, kambiyuutar, kimistiri iyo fiisigis ayaa ka mid ah casharrada ay qaadanayaan ardayda, iyadoo casharradan ay noqon doonaan kuwo si xowli ah ku socon doona afarta bilood ee uug horreeya," ayuu yiri maamulka iskuulka. Iskuuulkan ayaa wuxuu qayb ka yahay qorshaha ay dowladda Turkiga ku doonayso inay kaga caawiso shacabka Soomaaliyeed dhinaca waxbarashada iyadoo boqolaal arday Soomaaliyeed ah u qaaday dalka Turkiga si ay waxbarasho jaamacadeed oo tayo leh u helaan. Maxamed Xaaji Xuseen, Hiiraan Online maxuseen@hiiraan.com Muqdisho, Soomaaliya

We, the undersigned, register, in the strongest terms, our opposition to Kenya’s military incursion into Somalia. We note that several months at minimum is required to plan a military operation that involves crossing borders. Therefore the reasons put forward by the Kenyan government for this operation are demonstrably false. Statements from the French Government (see link below) and Medicins Sans Frontieres contradict the Kenyan Government’s allegation that Al-Shabaab is responsible for the kidnapping of Marie Dedieu and two other foreigners. We will kill some Somalis and call them Al-Shabaab. We will all feel very Kenyan indeed. They die, so we can create a national amnesia about 350,000 internally displaced Kenyans, missing World Bank monies, missing Education Ministry funds, the ICC-Kenya trials, 2012 elections, the implementation of our new constitution. The army will claim, as invading armies always do, that they have courageously engaged the enemy, when they have really killed innocent civilians. All of us are paying already for this bout of blood-thirst. We will go on paying, for many years to come. We will pay with our taxes, our un-built schools and hospitals, our unpaid teachers, our still-jobless youth, our rapidly deteriorating security situation, our shattered relationship with our neighbours. We do not require the death of Somalis to know who and where we are. SIGNED: Farah Brown Stoic Nur Nguru Karugu Keguro Macharia Paul Mwangi Maina Tom Maliti, Journalist Dr. Firoze Manji Abdulrahman Mirimo Dr. Wambui Mwangi Kenne Mwikya Benjamin Wambua Ndolo Onyango Oloo Odhiambo Oyoko Shailja Patel

^^Anytime a born again separatist like you comments about Somalia's ever changing situation, one needs to remember your silly marketing principle, which more or less reads as following: Any negative news from Somalia is GOOD for Somaliland's case for recognition. I have no reason to think otherwise

lool@prisoners of war. Ma farenji baa laga qabtay

^^So has the case been for the last twenty years. Somalia is not beyond salvage. It is much better than it has ever been since the eruption of civil war. We are better educated, have more resources, present in important capitals, have more financial power, and even have better awareness than we did in 1991, when the civil war broke out. And we are resilient people , others would not last this long awoowe, so toosi luquntaada, kuwan dhantaynayaa yey ku dhibin awoowe

^^Adeer you have no clothes, your support of Azania and Kenyan invasion has been recorded on the pages of this forum. Unlike you, xiinfaniin's positions are not dependent on other men's stances. As we said before , Sharif or no Sharif, Gaas or no Gaas, Kenya's invasion of Somalia is wrong on many accounts and will eventually fail. Adigu soo dhaantee, markaad nin ciddiina ah oo tank shisheeye saaran aragto

For starters, Gandi is seen as “France’s man.” He is one of the very few Somalis who speak fluent French and is married to a Frenchwoman. In the past nearly 10 years that he has lived in Nairobi, most of his costs have been paid for, a source told The EastAfrican, with “French money.” France has assumed a very aggressive, and equally controversial role in Africa. It was very forward in using its military to help rebels oust Laurent Gbagbo from power in Ivory Coast in April this year, after the strongman lost elections to rival current president Alassane Ouattara, but refused to hand over power, leading a resumption of civil war. France also assumed a high profile in the Nato bombing of the Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s embattled regime, to aid the rebels of the National Transitional Council. Gaddafi was captured, and very quickly killed in a gruesome incident by rebels in his hometown and stronghold of Sirte, just over two weeks ago. France now seems to have turned its attention to East Africa. President Nicolas Sarkozy became the first French leader of the past 20 years to bury with the hatchet with Rwanda’s ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front. The RPF blames French forces who were in Rwanda for collusion with Hutu extremists in the 1994 genocide, in which nearly one million Rwandans, most of them Tutsi, were killed. French authorities, on the other hand, had long blamed the RPF, alleging they shot down the plane carrying then Rwanda president Juvenal Habyarimana and Burundi’s Cyprian Ntaryamira over Kigali in 1994, setting off the last deadly phase of the genocide. Not only has Sarkozy visited Rwanda and extended an olive branch, but Kagame too went to Paris. France is seen as more likely to be willing to soil its hands in Somalia than the Americans, who have preferred to use proxies and drones, since their invasion of Somalia in 1992 ended in disaster and humiliation. This is particularly important for Kenya, as it will need someone who is willing to share the bill for what looks set to be a drawn-out and expensive campaign.

Rather, it is his view of the role of Al Shabaab and the period after the one-year extension of the TFG extension, that is influencing his remarks on the Kenya campaign. As for Kampala, it was President Yoweri Museveni who managed to get Somali groups to agree to extend the term of the TFG, which was expiring in August, by a year. The international community, which initially opposed the extension, were on the spot once the Somalis agreed. Besides Uganda, which has the bulk of the troops in Amisom, made the argument for extension to the international community primarily as something that the peacekeeping forces needed to consolidate the gains they and the TFG forces were making against Al Shabaab in the Mogadishu region. Sharif, the diplomats say, is “happy to see the Shabaab expelled from Mogadishu. But he is not ready to see it defeated.” This is because, they say, his plan was to use the Shabaab to continue his stay in power when the extension expires next year. The plan, they say, would involve Al Shabaab calling for a ceasefire, then entering into talks with Sharif, on the basis of which a new transitional government with him at the head would be formed — and he would thus get another term without an election. Sharif’s plan, if that is what it is, seems to be unravelling. Al Shabaab has reportedly asked for a truce, although this must be seen as a move by the Somali and less hardline faction, not the foreign faction of the militant organisation, who want to preserve some of their spoils around Kismayu. The one thing that all Ethiopian, Kenyan, Ugandan, Burundian and Amisom officials The EastAfrican spoke to seem to agree on, though, is that if Sharif or the TFG embrace the Shabaab, then it is over for him. He would likely be ousted from power in seconds. Turkish connection In the meantime, Sharif and other players in Somalia are moving away from their traditional friends and allies in the Middle East, toward Turkey. Turkey’s role, diplomats say, is one of the factors that make this moment in Somalia ripe for peace. Turkey is rising as the new Muslim power in the world, and unlike the theocracies in the Middle East, it is eager to showcase the “modern” face of Islam, to show that a country can be Muslim and be a democracy, with free markets, full rights for women, and play a role in the world without a persecution or victim complex. Its involvement in Somalia would help more secular and moderate elements to rise. Secondly, despite the continuing attacks in Somalia by unmanned US drones, this time it is the French who are playing a greater role in the Kenya campaign.

Madobe is favoured by the Kenya military establishment because he comes to the table as a commander with troops, while Gandi is a politician with good business connections. Managing local politics in Kismayu could easily see Kenya getting sucked into proxy fights with regional powers such as Ethiopia and Eritrea that have traditionally characterised the conflict in Somalia. There is also the risk of getting entangled in clan politics that could easily turn the groundswell of support for Kenya by ordinary Somalis as a liberator and turn it into a foreign occupier. In order to walk the fine line between invader and liberator, the Kenyan military has been taking a very cautious approach of turning over towns that have been captured to the local communities through the Transitional National Government. However, when it comes to the port of Kismayu, the situation might turn tricky fast. Mr Ahmed however downplays the potential conflict with Kenya over the establishment of the governing authority in Jubaland, claiming that Ethiopia has a good working relationship with both Gandi and Madobe. However, even the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. A few days after the Kenyan incursion, Sheik Sharif threw a spanner in the works when he opposed Kenya’s military campaign. Everyone seems to have been caught by surprise, and the Kenya government wrote to the TGF to demand an explanation. There was speculation that Sharif was playing to the Somali nationalist gallery, privately supporting the Kenya action, but maintaining his national credibility by publicly opposing it. There seemed to have been widespread agreement too that Sheik Sharif was wary that the Kenyans were going to instal a regional government dominated by the ******i clan in Kismayu, and that this would only create a Jubaland or Azania state that would operate like Puntland or Somaliland, and entrench the partition of Somalia. Ethiopian hand Some commentators saw the secret hand of Ethiopia, which was alleged to fear that Kenya’s ******i proxy, with the lucrative Kismayu port and its revenues in its control, would back the ******i National Liberation Front (ONLF), which is seeking to break away from Ethiopia and join a dreamed of Greater Somalia. However, Ethiopia’s ambassador Ahmed denies the latter, telling The EastAfrican that he and other mission officials in Nairobi “talk regularly to… Gandi, the Nairobi-based ******i leader and governor-in-waiting, who is likely to take over in Kismayu.” He also said the majority of the ******i are in Ethiopia, and they are leading lights in the politics of Ethiopia’s Somali State. However, diplomats close to Sharif said a Jubaland or Azania state is the least of his worries.

It would make sense to hand over to the UN at that point,” he said. Ethiopia supports the Kenyan invasion, which mirrors its strategy five years ago. Ethiopia, which went to war without the support of the international community with the exception of America, learnt some hard lessons. Ethiopia’s foray After Ethiopia made its foray into Somalia in late 2006 to fight the Islamic Union Courts regime led, ironically, by the country’s current President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, to prop up the more internationally recognised Transitional Federal Government that was then hiding out in Baidoa, it withdrew just over two years later in the face of international criticism. Ethiopia then focused on creating a “buffer” zone with Somalia along the common border. Amisom already controls the bulk of Mogadishu, and the plan is for it to also establish a sphere of influence in Middle and Lower Shabelle and the coastal area of Galgaduud. Kenya would establish a sphere of influence in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Lower Gedo and, of course, gain access to the key port of Kismayu, which is also the economic lifeline and greatest strategic asset of Al Shabaab. Managing victory However, as Kenya’s military campaign in Somalia clocks two weeks, the major cause of concern among diplomats, military and intelligence experts is starting to turn from taking over the Port of Kismayu into how to manage victory. With Amisom increasing pressure in Mogadishu and the Kenya Defence Force continuing its onslaught in the south, experts told The EastAfrican that the capability of Al Shabaab to continue fighting on multiple battlefronts will face a significant challenge. “There is no doubt we shall get Al Shabaab out,” said a source within Amisom, “but the key problem for Kenya is management of victory. The moment the city of Kismayu falls, who will control it? There is a major potential for conflict between Kenya and Ethiopia.” This potential conflict is symbolised by two men who experts say are being fronted as potential leaders of Jubaland, the new semi-autonomous state Kenya wants to help establish. One of the men is former Somali Defence minister and “president” of the Azania state, Mohamed Gandi, who is said to be favoured by the bosses of Kenya’s National Security Intelligence Service as well as the French. Ethiopians are wary of Gandi because his clan, the ******i, harbour territorial ambitions of one day creating a super-state carved out of southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia and a huge chunk of Kenya’s North Eastern Province. Then there is Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed Islam, known as Madobe, who is the leader of the Ras Kamboni Movement that is allied with the Transitional Federal Goverment.

By CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO and NICK WACHIRA As the Kenya Army enters the third week of its military campaign in southern Somalia, the African Union peacekeeping force is upping its pressure on the Al Shabaab around the capital Mogadishu, with the plan of “bringing some order” to the war-ravaged country by the end of December. (Also Read Uganda cautious as Kenya enters Somalia for Al Shabaab) In conversations with diplomats, government officials, and intelligence sources in the region, a clear picture has started emerging of a war that has been in the making over the past five years and one that could dramatically reorder the Somali state, and just possibly bring about the peace that has proved so elusive over the past two decades. According to these sources, Kenya’s military offensive was timely, coming as it did when the Al Shabaab militants are at their weakest and at a time when there is convergence of opinion in the wider East African region about what to do about the crisis in Somalia. However, a clearer strategy crafted by Somali leaders and regional players in the conflict is also emerging. The first step, the sources say, is to create three new “areas of influence” in the rest of Somalia, beside Somaliland and Puntland, which now function as independent territories. These territories would provide a buffer zone for Kenya and Ethiopia. Already, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone spanning Galgadud, Hiraan, Bay, Bakool and Gedo (See map above). Kenya’s military ambition is to create a buffer zone spanning Gedo El Wak, Middle and Lower Juba regions. Ultimately, these regions will be governed as semi-automous states at first that could one day form part of a strong united federal government of Somalia. The second step after the fall of Kismayu would to be to hand over all “liberated” areas to Amisom. This, according to diplomats, would mean that the UN Security Council would be forced to reconsider upgrading Amisom into a full-fledged mission with the recommended minimum troop level of 20,000 soldiers. So far, Amisom has about 9,500 troops in and around Mogadishu — and only two East African Community countries, Burundi and Uganda, have contributed. There are plans to add 3,000 soldiers, but no one has offered to pay for them. Both Uganda and Kenya have been calling on the Security Council to upgrade Amisom. The third step down the road, is for Amisom to hand over a pacified Somalia to the UN. “If Kenya and other regional players can stabilise Somalia a little,” Ethiopia’s ambassador to Kenya, Shemsudin Ahmed, told The East-African last Thursday, “it will require more, not less, support from the rest of Africa and the international community.

What a amazing reporter the AP reporter is!

^^100% agreed there, GoldCoast. Apparently the two clauses that speak to TFG will 'establish a regional admin' after Kenya evicts Alshabaab, and 'AMISOM will replace advancing Kenyan army as it liberates cities from Alshabaab are intended to appease those who objected because of Azania's role. I share with GoldCoast that Sharif is in that camp if he does not speak out against waxa la mal maleegaayo

^^If indeed there was no Somali flag in that meeting, then the PM should fire his protocol team. Perhaps the meeting was intended to be a metaphor for Kenya's utter disregard for Somali sovereignty.

Thanks for Somalia, the nomad. xiinfaniin is still searching the Somali flag in that press conference .... The agreement is nonsense , it is forcefully extracted from these weak leaders. XX, the clause you referenced will only appease those who opposed this thing on clan reasons. Kenyan troops will retain a supreme command in the areas they capture as long they are in Somalia.

First off, is my eyes deceiving me or the video posted has only Kenya flag? Second, does anyone has the agreement? If you do please post it here. We await Sharif's stance, but it appears TFG leaders crumpled before Kenyan invasion. Kenya might have addressed Sharif's Azania concerns, but the military strikes and areal bombardment continue

http://www.hiiraan.com/news/2011/Oct/wararka_maanta31-15587.htm

Very interesting analysis there, GoldCoast