Abtigiis is being fickle these days, he is running from something he's so passionate about; Azania The link below has more comprehensive analysis; truths that are so palpable and clear http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Kenya_s_Political_Failure_in_Southern_Somalia.shtml

Where is nuune when you need him! Hadhow baa la oran alshabaab maxaa looga adkaan la'yahay. This is why alshabaab will continue to thrive

Question is who pushed this unprepared country to war?

Reread the second pragraph ya Jamaacah, For the first time since the collapse of SiadBarre’s dictatorship in 1991, there is a strong possibility that “Somalia,” which has existed in political limbo for twenty years, with decisions on its political organization on hold and deferred, will take on a more settled political definition. That settlement would be imposed by external powers using the tactic of divide and rule to create dependent client states, loosely based on dominant clans inhabiting Somalia’s regions. It is obvious that were that scenario to eventuate it would spell the end of any possibility that the Somali people could regain their self-determination and be able to defend their own interests on the international stage.

Conclusion As it looks ever less probable that the U.N.-managed “transition” of Somalia to a permanent constitutional state will succeed, the alternative remains partition, balkanization, cantonization. Kenya’s operation in Somalia might have been the beginning of the partition process had it not been for Nairobi’s political incompetence. In a perceptive analysis on October 31, the Indian Ocean Newsletter put it succinctly: Nairobi had succeeded in rubbing the “nationalism of some T.F.G. leaders the wrong way,” and “had not convinced the West that its aims are realistic.” In terms of realizing its geo-political interests, Nairobi acted prematurely. It did not have a political order in place to take over from H.S.M. and, as an alternative to that, it did not gain the cooperation of the T.F.G. Nairobi also did not get the “donor”-powers on board, failing to realize that they have not yet abandoned the “transition” process in favor of partition. Balkanization will become operative when and if the “donor”-powers definitively give up on a state embracing the territories of post-independence Somalia, or most of them – perhaps excluding Somaliland. Kenya’s operation is a geo-political warning sign of partition, not the thing itself. Nairobi acted against the “transition” process and its “roadmap.” It isolated itself diplomatically and did not win whole-hearted support anywhere. It had no operative political plan. It did everything wrong politically. Nairobi cannot hope to provide a political formula for southern Somalia. Presumably, there will be another day. Report Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein, Professor of Political Science, Purdue University in Chicago weinstem@purdue.edu

The T.F.G. Resists Kenya From the outset of Kenya’s operation in mid-October it was clear that Nairobi had not prepared a political strategy to accompany the military mission. On October 18, the Nairobi Star reported that Kenya had trained administrators to take over “liberated towns.” That did not prove to be the case. On October 19, Kenyan army spokesman Lt. Nyagah told the press that Kenya was leaving the towns it captured in the hands of “T.F.G. forces and local administrations.” According to Nyagah, Nairobi had no intention of occupying southern Somalia, but only wished to “flush out” H.S.M. It also appeared that Nairobi had failed to inform the T.F.G. of its operation beforehand and, consequently, had not gained the T.F.G.’s cooperation. Whatever the reason was for Nairobi’s lapse, the T.F.G., which formally represents all the territories of post-independence Somalia (although it effectively controls almost none of them), stood to lose the most from partition in the south, which would create a statelet challenging the T.F.G.’s representation. By October 17, T.F.G. officials were opposing Kenya’s operation as a violation of Somali sovereignty. Somalia’s U.N. ambassador, Omar Jamal, for example, called the operation “a serious territorial intrusion.” On the other hand, Nairobi found backing on the ground from T.F.G.-allied forces in the south; military commander, Abdi Yusuf, said that “Kenya is fully supporting us militarily.” Expressions of opposition to Kenya’s operation by T.F.G. officials spurred Nairobi to send a delegation to Mogadishu led by foreign minister, Moses Wetang’ula, and defense minister, Yusuf Haji, to gain approval for and cooperation with the operation from the T.F.G. After Kenya’s delegation met with the T.F.G.’s president, Sh. Sharif Sh. Ahmad, the two sides issued a joint communiqué on October 18, in which the T.F.G. appeared to acquiesce in the operation. The agreement, however, did not hold; on October 24, Sh. Sharif came out against Kenya’s “military incursion,” telling Nairobi that its training of and logistical support for anti-H.S.M. Somali forces was welcome, “but not your army.” Sh. Sharif’s statement created a diplomatic problem and embarrassment for Kenya, which quickly asked for “clarification” of the T.F.G.’s position towards the operation. On October 26, the T.F.G.’s defense minister, Hussein Arab Isse, issued a “clarification statement” in which the T.F.G. denied that there had been any agreement allowing Kenyan forces into Somalia,” but said that the two sides had now agreed on “cooperation in undertaking coordinated security and military operations spearheaded by T.F.G. soldiers trained by the Kenyan government.” The T.F.G. also said it would appoint a “joint security committee to work with Kenya.” The “clarification statement” did not give Nairobi the endorsement that it wanted from the T.F.G., yet, on October 26, Nairobi went to the U.N.S.C. to justify its operation, claiming that it had acted “in direct consultation and liaison with the T.F.G. in Mogadishu,” which appears to have been anything but the case. Also on October 26, the U.S. State Department said that Washington did not “encourage the Kenyan government to act nor did Kenya seek our views.” With domestic Somali and international actors distancing themselves from the operation, Nairobi made another effort to get the T.F.G. on board in a meeting between T.F.G. prime minister Abdiweli Gas and Kenya’s prime minister RailaOdinga that resulted in a new communiqué, the core of which was an expression of the T.F.G.’s support for the operation in return for Kenya’s assent to the T.F.G.’s leadership of operations with Kenyan support. (It must be said that nobody expects Kenya to surrender control of its operation to the T.F.G.; the communique’s provisions serve the political purpose of subordinating Kenya to the T.F.G. in a purely formal sense. That is sufficient, however, to block a Kenyan attempt at partition.) After the communiqué was issued, Odinga stated that Nairobi did not support “the creation of an autonomous region in Jubbaland; we support the creation of local administrations.” Partition appeared to have been taken off the table, for the time being. It remains to be seen what might replace H.S.M. – if, indeed, it is displaced – except “local administrations.” Nairobi has been proved to have had no operative political strategy.

On October 30, the Kenyan newspaper The East African published a suggestive article based on “diplomatic and intelligence sources” about the grand strategy of Somali’s neighboring states. The first step of the strategy would be to create three “areas of influence” in the central and southern regions that would provide “buffer zones” for Ethiopia and Kenya. One area of influence would comprise most of central Somalia and would fall under Ethiopian control, another would cover most of the south and would be in Kenya’s charge, and the third would comprehend Mogadishu and adjacent areas, and would be controlled by the African Union peacekeeping mission, AMISOM. Each of the areas of influence would be governed by Somali clients as a “semi-autonomous state” that could become part of a “federal Somalia” at some later date. That is what partition would look like. The second step of the strategy escapes into fantasy. All “liberated areas” would be turned over to AMISOM, a move that would require that the United Nations Security Council (U.N.S.C.) increase the mission’s forces to 20,000 from the current 8-10,000 (and that the Western “donor”-powers pay for the expanded force). Finally, AMISOM would “hand over a pacified Somalia” to the U.N. That is all very unlikely to happen (to say the least) – it would be partition under ideal conditions for Ethiopia and Kenya. The “donor”-powers have not bought into it, nor has the U.N. Kenya is faced with more immediate and messy problems. Kenya’s role in the grand strategy is to organize a “Jubbaland” state controlling the deep south – the Gedo, Middle Jubba, and Lower Jubba regions. According to the East African, the Kenyan government had not decided who would front for it. Among the contenders are Kenya’s protégé, Mohamed Gandi, who leads the Azania state backed by Nairobi and Paris; Sh. Ahmed Madobe, the head of theRasKamboni organization that broke with H.S.M. and opposes it; and local officials and forces affiliated with Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.), which has formal international backing. Kenya is working with all three groups, but has done nothing to reconcile them. According to the East African, Kenya’s intelligence establishment is behind Azania, whereas Kenya’s military is behind the RasKamboni organization, which can “raise an army.” On November 7, Great Britain’s Guardian newspaper published a strategy article similar to the East African’s piece. According to the Guardian’s sources, the Azania forces, which were most dependent on Kenya and were its favorites, had “not lived up to expectations” and were opposed by Ethiopia, because of Azania’s clan base – the ******, which populate Ethiopia’s Somali region and harbor an insurgent movement against Addis Ababa. The demotion of Azania, according to the Guardian, leaves Kenya with the ******* clan and the RasKamboni organization. The Guardian added that in order to avoid having to get caught in the web of clan and factional politics, Nairobi was hoping that AMISOM would deploy to Ksmayo and that Kenya would join the peacekeeping mission. The East African and Guardian articles indicate that Kenya will not be capable of executing a partition strategy due to Nairobi’s political incompetence – its failure to deal with southern Somalia’s factionalization (if that is possible for an external actor to accomplish). That failure became evident when the T.F.G. resisted the “Jubbaland” project and apparently succeeded in rolling it back.

The Geo-Political Dimension of Kenya’s Operation The most frustrating feature of Kenya’s military operation from the viewpoint of analyzing it is the Kenyan government’s lack of clarity in defining the operation’s geo-political aims. At different times, from different officials, and sometimes in the same statement, the aim of the operation is said to be to secure Kenya’s borders, to create buffer zones in Somalia around its border,and to effect regime change in the regions of southern Somalia by eliminating the administrations of the Islamist Harakat al-ShabaabMujahideen (H.S.M.). Only the third alternative would involve (and necessarily so) Kenya in creating a political organization for the south, which it does not appear to be ready or able to do. Yet, Kenya keeps promising to press on to Kismayo, H.S.M.’s nerve center. What seems to be the case is that Kenya has the maximum aim of carving out a client statelet for itself in southern Somalia and the minimum aim of border security, and that its operative aims fall between the two extremes, varying day by day depending on how the operation is faring. The maximum aim is Kenya’s wish (partition); the minimum aim is the last eventuality before failure. Nairobi does not seem to have figured out what it can reasonably expect to get with the resources it is willing to expend, which – if true – indicates that the operation is ill-conceived. The lack of clarity and focus in Kenya’s geo-political aims shows that its operation was premature, that it failed to formulate a coherent political plan for southern Somalia, and, more importantly, did not do the work necessary to bring together the Somali political factions in the south that oppose H.S.M. Nairobi has put itself in the position in which the United States found itself after it invaded Iraq, with all the political work left to do on the ground. Yet Nairobi is not Washington: Kenya does not have the resources of a super-power. It is not to be expected that Kenya will come anywhere near realizing its maximum aim, yet it is worthwhile considering Nairobi’s dream as indicative of the underlying tendency shaping Somalia’s political future.

11 Nov 11, 2011 - 5:54:27 AM By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein Kenya’s military operation in Somalia is a warning sign for the Somali people of the most probable political future that they will undergo: the partition of the territories of post-independence Somalia into a group of weak authorities that are beholden to neighboring states (Ethiopia and Kenya) that act for their own interests and as proxies for great external powers (United States, Western European states, and, increasingly, China). For the first time since the collapse of SiadBarre’s dictatorship in 1991, there is a strong possibility that “Somalia,” which has existed in political limbo for twenty years, with decisions on its political organization on hold and deferred, will take on a more settled political definition. That settlement would be imposed by external powers using the tactic of divide and rule to create dependent client states, loosely based on dominant clans inhabiting Somalia’s regions. It is obvious that were that scenario to eventuate it would spell the end of any possibility that the Somali people could regain their self-determination and be able to defend their own interests on the international stage. The partition of post-independence Somalia would not mean the end of the Somali people. Regardless of political organization, Somalis would continue to acknowledge one another as Somalis, as distinct from other peoples and ethnic groups. Somalis would simply lack an organ for articulating and asserting their interests. That, of course, would systematically disadvantage them in the competitive world of international politics. Partition would be a form of neo-colonialism. It would mean that the Somali people would be permanently weakened and they would not make the decisions determining their fate. Loss of self-determination is not death; it is dependency. The Kenyan military operation is, to repeat, a warning sign of what is likely to come; as it has worked out thus far, the operation is not clearly an exercise in partition, it simply tends in that direction – but that is due to Kenyan incompetence rather than to Somali resolve. The basic dynamic remains in place.

Dowladda Kenya oo sheegtay inay ka laabatay go'aankii ay ku sheegtay inay duqeynayso 10-magaalo Jimco, November 11, 2011 (HOL) — Dowladda Kenya ayaa sheegay inay ka laabtay go'aankii ay horay u qaadatay ee ahaa inay weerarayso 10-degmo oo ku yaalla Koonfurta Soomaaliya, balse ay qorsheynayso inay taas badalkeeda duqeyso gabi ahaan saldhigyada ay ku leedahay Al-shabaab Bartamaha iyo Koonfurta Soomaaliya. Afhayeenka ciidamada Kenya, Major Emmanuel Chirchir ayaa sheegay in go'aankaas ka laabteen ayna ugu baaqayaan shacabka inay iska joogaan degmooyinkii horay loo iclaamayay. "Qorshaheena waxaan ku badalnay inaan hawada ka weerarno saldhigyada ay Al-shabaab ku leedahay gobollada ay ka taliyaan oo dhan, si awooddooda aan u yareyno," ayuu yiri Maj. Chirchir. Dowladda Kenya ayaa todobaad ka hor sheegtay inay hawada ka weerarayso 10-degmo oo Koonfurta Soomaaliya ku yaalla, kuwaasoo ay ka mid yihiin: Baydhabo, Afmadow, Kismaayo, Bu'aale, Baraawe iyo Afgooye. Taasoo walaac xooggan gelisay dadka ku nool degmooyinkaas. Maj. Chirchir wuxuu sheegay inay sidoo kale qorsheynayaan inay sida ugu dhaqsiyaha badan ku qabsadaan degmooyin ay ka mid tahay Kismaayo oo uu sheegay inay dhaqaale badan ka hesho Al-shabaab. Ugu dambeyn, afhayeenka ciidamada Kenya ayaa wuxuu sheegay in howlgalladooda gudaha Soomaaliya ay socon doonaan inta ay sugayaan ammaanka dalkooda, ayna meesha ka saarayaan awoodda Al-shabaab. Maxamed Xaaji Xuseen, Hiiraan Online maxuseen@hiiraan.com Muqdisho, Soomaaliya

Falalka ka dhanka ah Soomaalida oo ku sii badanaya Nairobi iyo Eastleigh oo rabshado ka dilaaceen Khamiis, November 10, 2011(HOL) Nairobi, Kenya - Iyadoo ay sii badanayaan falalka ay ku dheehantahay Soomaali nacaybka ee ka dhacaya Nairobi, ayaa maanta ay rabshado ka dilaaceen xaafadda Easleigh. Dad goob joogayaal ah ayaa Hiiraan Online u sheegay in saaka ay shaqaaqo markii dambe fiday ay ka dilaacday wadada JAM Street ee xaafadda Eastleigh. Rabshada ayaa bilaabatay markii ay isku dhaceen dhalinyaro Soomaali ah iyo qaar kamid Kenyaanka loo yaqaano Jokoraaga (Darbi jiif) ee ku dul nool qashinka meelaha la dhigo. Balse markii gacanta la isula tagay ayaa rabshadu fiday, iyadoo labada dhinacba ay gurmad kala heleen, taasoo sii siyaadisay baaxada rabshada. Inta la ogyahay hal wiil oo Kenyaan ah ayaa ku dhintay rabshadaha, iyadoo labada dhinacna ay jiraan dhaawacyo fudud oo soo kala gaaray. Rabshada maantay oo la isu adeegsanayay baangado,mindiyo iyo dhagax ayaa waxaa markii dambe kala dhex galay booliska oo dadka ku kala cayriyay xabado ay cirka u ridayeen. Guriga ay rabshadu ka bilaabatay oo la yiraahdo Yaara House ayaa kooxo Kenyan ah isku dayeen inay dab qabadsiiyaan,balse booliska ayaa isku gadaamay goobta, kala fogeeyayna kooxihii dagaallamayay. Tan iyo markii ay ciidamada Kenya gudaha u galeen Soomaaliya ayaa si wayn loo dareemayaa falalka nacaybka ah ee ka dhanka ah Soomaalida. Dhacdadii aadka loogu qoslay ayaa ahayd markii ay labo wiil oo Soomaali ah soo koreen bas ay saaranyihiin dad Kenyaan ah xaafadda Westlands, taasoo keentay in dadkii gaariga saarnaa ay qaylo dhaan afka ku shubtaan kana dagtaan gaariga, iyadoo markii dambe wadihii gaarigu uu iska dajiyay wiilashii Soomaalida, taasoo muujinaysa falalka cunsuriyadda ah ee ka dhanka ah Soomaalida. Fal kan la mid ah ayaa ka dhacay Hotelka Stanley oo labo maalmood ka hor shir loogu qabtay saxafiyiin Soomaaliyeed iyo kuwo caalami ah, kadib markii mulkiilayaasha hotelku ay daqiiqadihii ugu dambeeyay ee shirku bilaaban lahaa ay dalbadeen in shirka la joojiyo oo looga baxo hotelka, iyagoo sabab uga dhigay in aan la sugi Karin ammaanka haddii Soomaali soo gasho hotelka. Marka la galayo dhismayaasha waawayn ee Nairobi iyo meelaha isbitaallada ayaa il gaar ah lagu fiiriyaa Soomaalida, iyadoo lagu sameeyo baaritaano dheeraad ah. Haddii ay sii socdaan falalka noocaan ah, waxay u muuqataa in Soomaali badan oo maalgashi ka samaystay Kenya ay xoolahooda la bixi doonaan, iyadoo kuwo hadda u soo socdana ay ka fiirsan doonaan inay maalgashi ka samaystaan Kenya. Axmed Cabdisamad, Hiiraan Online asamad@hiiraan.com Nairobi , Kenya

^^Calm down waryaa, oo bahasha sidaad u waday u wad ps. Sharif is not a 'beloved' man of mine. As you could see , I ditched him the minute he deviated from his previous stance. But I expect you not to notice that pps. Born again separatist, is coined by Prof. Abtigiis, the Azania supporter and Keynan army invasion cheerleader. Ironically, he himself become a born again O

Somali Baajuuni fishermen, mistaken for Alshabaab, killed by Kenyan military, http://somalitalk.com/2011/nfd/nfd25.html

This is what I was talking about. NGONGE is at his best when he delves into local separatist politics, bal siduu u sarrifay bahasha arag, xattaa Xaajigii buu baaqi u celiyey

Maxaa ka soo baxay kulan Dhex marey Madaxweynaha Kenya Kibaki iyo Xubno ka socdey Soomaalida Waqooyi Bari (NFD). “Gobolka Waqooyi Bari Markiisii hore waa ka Dambeeyey Gobolada kale ee Kenya marka Hadda waxaa la Doonayaa in loo sii Dhameeyo”. Wararka naga soo gaaraya Magaalada Nairobi ee Dalka Kenya waxay sheegayaan in uu kulan balaaran uu dhexmarey Madaxweynaha wadanka Kenya Kibaki iyo xubno ka socdey Gobolka waqooyi Bari ee Dalka Kenya ee ay Soomaalida (NFD), waxaana ka mid ahaa Xubno ka socdey odoyaasha , Culumaudiin , Siyaasiyin , Xildhibaano iyo Wasiiro waxaana kulankaas la is kula soo qaadey soo gelitaanka Ciidamada Kenya ee Dhulka Soomaaliya iyo saameynta ay arrinkaas ku yeelatey dadka Soomaaliyeed ee ku nool Gobolka Waqooyi Barri.. Xubnahii ka socdey Gobolka waqooyi Barri ayaa waxay Madaxweynaha Kibaki u sheegaan in Xaalad Nabagelyo Xumo ay u keentey Soomaalida Waqooyi Bari gelitaankii Ciidamadda Kenya ee Soomaaliyeed iyagoo sheegey laga soo bilaabo 16 kii oktoober ee bishii la soo dhaafey oo ku beegneyd xiligii Ciidamada Kenya ay galeen deegaano ka tirsan Gobolka Jubada Hoose in Deegaanka Waqooyi bari lagu diley dad fara badan oo ay sheegeen in qaar ka mid toogasho lagu diley qaar kalane lala beegsadey Qaraxyo , waxayna ka codsadeen Madaxweynaha in Xaaladda nabadgelyo ee Deegaanada waqooyi Bari wax laga qabto islamarkaana Dowladda ay ka fiirsato faregelintii ay ku sameeyaan Soomaaliya . “Tan iyo markii ay burburtey Dowladii Soomaaliya ee Sannadkii 1991 dadka ku nool Deegaanada Waqooyi Bari ee Dalka Kenya waxay ku noolaayeen Nabad buuxda taasina waxay ku timid faragelin la’aanta Dowladda Kenya ee Soomaaliya xitaa waxaa soomaaliya nooga imaanayey Badeecooyin aad uga jaban kuwaas ka soo dega Mambasa marka waxaan leeyahay Dowladda Kenya in ay joojiso faragelinta ay ku sameeyeen Soomaaliya waayo wax badan oo dano ah ayey ku weyneysaa Dowladda Kenya “ayuu yiri nin odey ah oo ka Hadley kulankaas sheegeyna in Dowladda Kenya ay ku fududaatey gelitaankii Soomaaliya . Waxaa kaloo halkaas ka Hadley Siyaasi isna ka soo jeeda Gobolka Waqooyi Bari (NFD) waxaana la sheegay in uu yiri “Dowladsda Kenya dib ha u eegto dalka Afganistaan waxaa reer Galbeedka iyo Mareykanka ka jooga ilaa 300 oo kun oo Askari ilaa iyo hadda wax xal ah lagama gaarin dalkaas marka Dowladda Kenya waxaan filayaa in aysan hayn dhaqaalhihii ay ku bixin lahayd la dagaalanka argagixisada marka waxaa talo ku soo jeedin lahaa in Dowladda Kenya ay xirato Xuduudeeda oo ay Ciidamadeeda kala soo baxaan Soomaaliya “ wuxuu intaa si raaciyey “ waxaaa loo baahan yahay in Dowladda Kenya ay si aad ah uga fiirsato faragelinta ay kusameysey Soomaaliya . “Dowladda Kenya faragelin way ku haysey Soomaaliya gaar ahaan dhinaca Siyaasada marka hadii ay ku darto mid Meleteri waxaa imaan kara in faraha ay ka baxdo Nabagelyadii Deegaanada Soomaalida dalkana uu ku soo qulqulo hub fara badan marka haddi aan nahay dadka ka soo jeeda Deegaanka Waqooyi Beri waxaa maalmahaan lana soo gudboonaadey nabadgelyo tii ugu xumeyd xitaa waxaan kor u kacay Maciishadii waayo Gawaaridii Badeecooyinka nooga keeni jirey Soomaaliya dhamaantood waa istaageen marka Madaxweynaha waxaan leeyahay Gobolka Waqoyi Bari markiisii hore waa uu ka harey Gobolada kale ee ay dadka Kenya ay Degaan ha noqoto mid dhaqaale ,mid Bulsho iyo mid adeeg guud , marka haddii Xaaladii nabadgelyo ay sii xumaato waxaa Gobolka Waqooyi Bari ku imaan kara iin wixii ay haysteen ay sii burburaan marka waxaa u soo jeedinayaa Dowladda Kenya in ay joojiso faragelinta ay ku sameysey Soomaaliya “ ayuu yiri nin ka mid Culimada Gobolka Wooyi Bari ee ka qayb galey Kulankaas . Madaxweyne Kibaki oo isna ka Hadley kulankaas ayaa sheegey in Dowladda Kenya ay iska Difaaceyso wax uu ugu yeerey Kooxo argagixisa ah haddii aan laga hortagi ay imaan karto in in ay faraha ka baxdo Nabadgelyadii dalka Kenya iyo kan Gobolka marka waxaa idiin soo jeedinayaa in aad kaqayb qaadataan sidii looga hortagi lahaa nabad diidka ,hase yeeshee kulankaas ayaa waxaa lagu waramey in uu ku dhamaadey fashil balse loo balamey kulan kale oo la sheegey inay la yeelan doonaan Raiisul Wasaaraha Kenya . W/D Amiin Yuusuf Khasaaro. E-Mail amiinkhasaaro@hotmail.co.uk.

Waryaa Abtigiis, dhegta xun fur waryaa As far as I know those of us who opposed Azania at the beginning did so for the fact that it was a foreign arm to create a buffer zone. It was conceived in the halls of Kenyan intelligence community with the help of Gandi. It was and still is a non existent entity on the ground. If we were operating out of clannish interest, logic would've dictated us to support Azania. For from what I heard from uncles, it satisfies the clan interest both in its regional representation composition and in the proposed administrative entitlement of the city of Kismayo. The thing is based on our estimate, If the goal is to defeat alshabaab, this is not how to do it. I note the fact that you finally bought in the symbolic significance of the TFG. Any attempt to weaken TFG, as the Kenyan invasion clearly does, will ultimately strengthen alshabaab.

Abtigiis;755897 wrote: Barwaaqooy, Inkastoo anigu dadka soomalidu amaanto aan ka shakiyo, hadana i have seen some learned guys who spoke good of him. I only started to wonder if he really is what they say after looking at the length he can go to get a perch or post. Azania came after the TFG bid failed. I don't think anybody can be an Iley but I believe Gandhi can do Ethiopias bidding if he finds it useful in his war against Sharif. I would have thought a full professor would see his rivarly to Sharif and TFG as a mild sibling infighting compared to the lurking threat of Ethiopia's destablisation of Somalia. I don't see that. I can tell you all my clan folks will be celebrating his journey to Addis in the belief that it will clear the last hurdle for the creation of the coveted tribal homeland of Azania. You see, although Xinn thinks I am for Azania, there is nothing I hate more than Azania. Sorry, except Alshabab. I don't like Gandhi because the message I hear from Tolka is that he is a champion of the tolka cause. If one can't transcend tolka aspirations, what is the point of calling him a professor? Gandhi must talk to the TFG, talk to UDUB land and other clan entities in Jubboyinka, use the external support he is getting to assist the TFG project of reclaiming statehood. He should embrace the bigger national interest. If he can't do that, he is another Barre Hiiraale. A darker one and with degrees, but nonetheless a Hiiraale. Xinn, I aplogize. It was an oversight on my part. I thought you are talking about Somalia. I am not you, I am very much fallible. ^^I knew you would reject this Azania thing the minute you realize how unfeasible it is given the clan complexity that surround it and the shifting loyalty that is inherent in it. By logical extension, you should also reject Kenya's effort to create a buffer zone by attempting to install friendly militia (Gandhi's Azania army),in that area. Such half measures will only bolster Alshabaab and discredit the weak TFG.

Valenteenah.;755871 wrote: Perhaps he thought you were refering to the burning debris called Somalia, as a stable nation. This professor is an enigma. To me at least. If one reads what I wrote in the paragraph Abtigiis was responding it, one would think I was clear with which state I was referring to. But with Abtigiis, one expects anything from him.

Calm down waryaa As far as I am concern Kenya is relatively stable nation, and Gandi might have played a role in convincing them his project will in the end bear diffident, economically and politically. Not sure what you are protesting there

Ma tirsannaa marka? All you need to say is I disagree with xiinfaniin's position. We still think Kenya's invasion will be significantly disruptive to any progress on the political front. The nature they come in which was unilateral and arrogant will bolster Alshabaab, not diminish it. Their stated mission (creating buffer zone to defend their interest) goes against what are you peddling here. And the fact you equate Kenya's invasion to AMISOM presence is quite telling about your dishonest. So reread what I wrote one post above and digest it. Lets talk next week insha Allah EDIT: the fact AMISOM is in Xamar does not contradict Somalia's sovereignty nor does it mean other countries can just come in and do what ever they want in Somalia. At least acknowledge that fact waryaa

Azania may not at the end be what the good professor envisioned it to be. But the fact he played a role however negligible in taking an stable nation to war for such a poor idea is itself a great reflection of his skills and network. Kenya may at the end come out of it in a worse shape than when it went, Ethiopia may once again fail in taming Somalis, but that will not matter for Gandhi he will have tried something and mobilized armies that are not his for his own idea (if Azania is truly his own imagination)...

Waryaa iga baro; 1- On TFG, I have not said anything new. It is what I have been telling you all along, but again you have no center, so arguing against puppet arguments is what you naturally excel. 2- As for Alshabaab, the strategy to defeat them will not be based on calling every country who is willing to invade Somalia and fight Alshabaab to come in and do what they think fit. That is madness. Alshabaab call in foreign fighters to come in and support them. What you have been supporting unwittingly is to mimic Alshabaab's own strategy. Only difference being they call individuals, you are calling states and foreign armies just to defeat one single organization. 3- How to defeat alshaab lies in strengthening (gradually) the capacity of TFG, pushing alshabaab out of the capital, and establishing real, effective governance in areas they vacated in xamar. That has been the case, and the TFG was progressing quite rapidly, there was a positive attention for Somalia, and there was a political track with a reasonable transition time table to hope for. All of that is disrupted, a new army is on Somalia's soil with a zero regard to sovereignty in the name of fighting alshabaab, and you fall for it. ps. Duke made good diagnosis, and they are relevant and deserve consideration

Gheelle.T;755848 wrote: Shacabku magaalooyin ha ka qaxaan iyo dameero yaan la raacin maxay tahay? The height of desperation indeed. The only hope left for Kenya is Nato. They ill prepared for the kind of gorilla war alshabaab seem to be preparing for.

^^NGONGE you are being playful there , Abtigiis, If that helps you sleep better tonight, YES I am being defeated and nearing to post the proverbial white flag . I believe the gallery deserves a concluding Dhaanto, to signify your hard earned victory against xiinfaniin Adeer you are tempting me to agree with Duke's diagnosis . Your resolve and insistence of this peculiar hyperbolic doubt of me is getting an embarrassing point. I cant even began to explain your absurdities. For it cannot be explained. I wish I could lend you a hand in the fight against this puppet character that worships men and refuses to reason. TFG as we said before is a national platform that is needed to symbolically hold Somali stakeholders together. Hence it must be supported and improved upon. Separatist and Alshabaab (and perhaps the hyped, still to born Azania) are the only groups that oppose it. So relax awoowe

November 4, 2011 Italy Agrees to Allow I.M.F. to Monitor Its Progress on Debt By LIZ ALDERMAN CANNES, France — Acceding to pressure from European leaders, Italy “invited” the International Monetary Fund to look over Rome’s shoulder to ensure it is carrying out reforms designed to keep the country from succumbing to Europe’s widening sovereign debt crisis, European Union officials said Friday. In an extraordinary move, Italy said it had invited the fund to scrutinize its books every three months to make sure a $75 billion dollar austerity package is carried out according to plan. A team from the European Commission will also travel to Rome next week to start monitoring Rome’s efforts, the president of the group, Jose Manuel Barroso said. Should Italy get swept up in the debt contagion, its $2.5 trillion debt load would threaten to overwhelm even the latest bailout vehicle being assembled, the $1.4 trillion European Financial Stability Facility, taking Europe’s debt crisis to a new level and potentially weighing on the global economy. Even that backstop seemed to be in doubt on Friday after the summit meeting of the Group of 20 nations broke up with little apparent progress on resolving Europe’s debt crisis, aside from the decision to have the I.M.F. monitor Italy’s fiscal progress. Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, admitted that Europe’s leaders had so far failed to interest any of the Group of 20 nations to invest in the new facility — —a major goal of European leaders. Mrs. Merkel said cash-rich countries like China and Russia wanted to see more guarantees that they would not be throwing good money after bad before making any commitments. They are particularly keen to have the I.M.F. oversee any such fund to guard against losses on their investments. A separate effort to bring more I.M.F. money to the table has also failed to get off the ground, at least for now, though officials are said to be looking to raise money through a sort of trust fund. Separately, the group has discussed setting up lines of credit to help small countries hurt by the crisis. Fears that European leaders still have not nailed down the details of a grand plan designed to contain the euro crisis have caused Italy’s borrowing rates to spike higher in recent days to levels approaching those that forced Greece, Portugal and Ireland to ask for bailout packages from their European partners. Yet, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s shaky coalition government is having trouble implementing a number of painful austerity measures passed recently to reduce the nation’s deficit and its mountain of debt, which is the second highest in the euro zone after Greece. Further complicating matters, his government is hanging by a thread, and faces challenges from his main coalition party, the Northern League, which has already said it does not agree with all the structural changes adopted by Rome to bring the nation’s finances under control. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany have been pressuring on Mr. Berlusconi to fulfill Italy’s financial commitments, but to date the Italian prime minister has been able to muster only a letter outlining his government’s intentions. Publicly, European officials are presenting Italy’s decision to bring in the I.M.F. as purely voluntary. “We didn’t put Italy in a corner,” Herman van Rompuy, the European Commission president, said. “They themselves decided to invite the I.M.F..” But few countries in the world are eager to surrender their sovereignty to the fund, and Italy appears to be no exception. Behind closed doors, said one European Union official, leaders encouraged Mr. Berlusconi to bring in the group’s auditors to demonstrate to world markets that Italy is making a credible effort to cut its deficits and make changes designed to restore growth, which is currently close to non-existent. It is an extraordinary step for the fund, which typically only monitors countries that are recipients of bailouts. But the I.M.F. appears to be increasing its clout and presence in Europe as the crisis grows. Among other things, its managing director, Christine Lagarde, wants the group to oversee a part of the proposed European bailout fund, which is seeking to lure financial contributions from Japan, China, Russia and other cash-rich countries. The I.M.F. is already overseeing the bailouts of three Western European countries, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, a scenario that would have been all but unthinkable just a few years ago. The announcement of the I.M.F.’s surveillance in Italy comes just two days after the Greek prime minister, George A. Papandreou, called for a referendum on a bailout deal for Greece, throwing financial markets into a tailspin and sowing panic among leaders of the Group of 20 industrial nations who have been searching for ways to stem the contagion.