Abtigiis;760646 wrote: ... I don't agree with this writers assessment that Alshabab can engage in gurriella warafare. They haven't done before, they are unlikely to do it now . They don't have the support of the locals, and without this, they can't do insurgency. Also, the more areas the government takes, the more more youth the Alshabab will lose. Wrong. ^^There was a time when Ethiopia controlled Dhusamareeb, Beledweyne, Jawhar, Mogadishu, Marka, Baydhabo, Beledweyne, Baardheere, Kismayo and Raaskanbooni. It was alshabaab guerrilla warfare that ultimately reversed Ethiopia's gains. There is no government to speak of, so I don't know what you mean by 'the more areas the government takes, the more more youth the Alshabab will lose'. Unless of course, you think Ethiopian army will function as a government.

^^Waryaa, Caqliyow, ninkii Zenawi ahaa hoos ka aqri http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/60139-Abtigiis-Sings-For-Zenawi

Ethiopia’s first invasion of Somalia was the major contributing factor in causing the complete breakdown of government in Somalia. It also helped to create Al Shabaab. Five years later, Ethiopian troops are back over the border, in force, hoping to make amends and make sure that Kenya doesn’t get all the glory. Chances are, there won’t be much glory to go round. Bullet of truth....

Ethiopia’s first invasion of Somalia was the major contributing factor in causing the complete breakdown of government in Somalia. It also helped to create Al Shabaab. Five years later, Ethiopian troops are back over the border, in force, hoping to make amends and make sure that Kenya doesn’t get all the glory. Chances are, there won’t be much glory to go round. By SIMON ALLISON. In an echo of 2006, Ethiopian troops are once again pouring across their eastern border into Somalia. This is round two of the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia, and this time they’ve gone in to clean up the mess they made the first time round. Although the Ethiopian government haven’t confirmed their participation, multiple news agencies are reporting that eyewitnesses have seen 20 or 30 Ethiopian trucks filled with troops in and around the Somali town of Guriel. It’s unclear in what context Ethiopia is framing this incursion, and how significant their contribution will be, but the target is obvious: Ethiopia has joined Kenya and the African Union in the fight against Al Shabaab. There’s an unmistakably historical irony to this. It was Ethiopia – with the tacit support of an overly-paranoid United States – that created the conditions for Al Shabaab to prosper. In the early 2000s, Somalia was mostly – but not completely – under the loose control of the Union of Islamic Courts, a relatively moderate Islamic group which was slowly bringing some semblance of stability and security to a country that hadn’t known peace for decades. But the Islamic Courts soon earned the wrath of the United States, which saw in its emphasis on Islamic law a strong link with terrorism. This was near the beginning of the War on Terror, and the United States still had not made the distinction between the moderate if conservative Islam of groups like the Islamic Courts and, to an extent, Hamas in Palestine, and the militant, almost anarchic fundamentalism of Al Qaeda. Ethiopia, too, was unimpressed with Somalia’s new leaders. Ethiopia and Somalia have a long and bitter history, with the ethnically Somali ****** region a constant source of tension. Part of the ****** is in Somalia, part in Ethiopia. Historically, Somalia has wanted to claim the entire ******, and Ethiopia continues to face resistance from rebel movements within their part of the disputed territory. Add this historic issue to the seemingly unstoppable recent increase in the number of Muslims in Ethiopia, ostensibly a majority Christian country. Ethiopia’s leadership is overwhelmingly Christian, but the rumour goes that there are now more Muslims than Christians in their country. This is a serious threat to the government of Meles Zenawi in Addis Ababa, as it undermines their natural support. A strong Somalia defined in Islamic terms could only exacerbate this threat. So Ethiopia decided to do something about it. In 2006, they sent their troops over the border, about 3000 of them. They were tacitly supported by the United States, although the United States denies this. The relatively well-trained and well-armed Ethiopian troops smashed the feeble resistance of the Islamic Courts, and installed a transitional government in Mogadishu. This transitional government remains the recognised government of Somalia today, even though they don’t even control all of Mogadishu. Meanwhile, the Islamic Courts fractured. Some of the leadership were co-opted into the transitional government; Somalia’s current president was a leading figure in the Islamic Courts. But some thought that if they were going to be treated like militant fundamentalists, they might as well be militant fundamentalists. This was the genesis of Al Shabaab, the group which has gone on to forge links with Al Qaeda and still controls most of southern Somalia. Ultimately, the Ethiopian invasion of 2006 destroyed the fragile stability that Somalia was just beginning to enjoy, and created the conditions that created Al Shabaab. Not an enduring success for Somalia. But Ethiopia might not have been too fussed; the invasion left its dangerous neighbour in chaos, which greatly minimised their potential threat to Ethiopia. But now, Ethiopia sniffs blood, and the chance to finish off what it started; they’re also concerned that Kenya will have too great an influence on a post-Al Shabaab Somalia, so need to stake their claim early. Al Shabaab is on the back foot for the first time in five years, dealing with the Kenyan invasion on one hand and a renewed push from the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) on the other. They don’t really have a hand to spare to deal with a third front opened by Ethiopia. At least that’s the thinking. The weight of the military forces now stacked against Al Shabaab should be too much for them to handle. This becomes clear when you start looking at the number of countries involved: Burundi and Uganda, as part of Amisom, with Djibouti and Sierra Leone poised to commit trooops; Kenya and Ethiopia with their own military efforts; and various international actors remaining very quiet for now, although there’s plenty of speculation that the United States is contributing drones to go after specific targets. But southern Somalia is Al Shabaab territory. They know it well, and if they really are in alliance with Al Qaeda they will have learnt a few lessons about how to fight an insurgents’ war. Look at how much firepower is and has been stacked against the Taliban in Afghanistan, and look at how effective it has been. In short, not effective at all. By using guerrila tactics, blending into the local population, and stirring up clan links to keep loyalties strong, Al Shabaab might be able to mimic the Taliban’s success. As one of Al Shabaab’s more hip spokesman commented: “Somalia is not a cool place to come and enjoy.” The less Ethiopian forces enjoy themselves now, the more Ethiopia will be made to rue invading Somalia the first time round, which caused the mess they have to clean up now.

NGONGE, If you didn't know Hiil Qaran exists, it does. It is a political group that espouses that Somalia shall be united and Islamic in its identity

NGONGE;760471 wrote: In all honesty, even Netanyahu is a better option than Al Shabab, adeer. Alas, your false (or is it naive?) nationalsim is blinding you to that fact. The issue here is about the future of a nation, not the next couple of months or years. You, Che and all the nationalists have proven (time and again) your inability to grasp or understand the Somali situation and players. You banged your drums for the Courts when all the ctourts were was a bunch of adminstrating secretries that had no grip on politics. You (Xiin) regaled us with your defunct Caravan when every sane person tried to show you how futile that idea was. You fell in love with the rascal that is Sheikh Sharif and attacked the real politician that was Abdullahi Yusuf. And what do you do everytime your new dawn proves false? You say "we were wrong"..dee ila guurmaad wrong noqonaysaan? Dee guurmaad hordada ka kacaysaan? Guurmaad xamaasadan madhan iska daayaysaan oo practical politics baran doontan? Al Shabab are not SL or PL. You can not brush them aside and claim to prefer them to outside invaders. For whilset an invader can be fought against, rebuffed and sent away; the Shabab menace is here to stay and is never going away on its own. Al Shabab yaa Xiin are the ones that strengthened the resolve of Uganda. They are the ones that will make Kenya keep up her assult on Somalia and they are also the group that will give Ethiopia to pretext to carry on invading Somalia. This is how it stands today. The hopeless TFG supports the fight against Al Shabab because, like everyone else (from Siilaanyo all the way to Sharif) know that this is the one group that does not negotiate, compromise or sit back happily counting its loot. They know that Al Shabab's entire plan and goal is to continue fighting and drag as many sides as possible into this so called Jihad of theirs. Now if you're genuine in your wish to see a peaceful, progressive and (hopefully one day) independent Somalia you will put all your support with those attempting to get rid of Al Shabab (passing nationalism, empty pride and hopeless egos can be put on standby for the time being). If you want to harvest the beautiful rose that is Somalia, you must withstand the temporary pricks of the Kenyan, Ugandan & Ethiopian thorns (war xita Isreal o yeedh). ANYTHING BUT AL SHABAB yaa naas. Wax fahma dee. Adeer despite your passionate speech, your naivety clearly shows on. You are even resorting outright lies, presenting a united face of Somalia's political stakeholders against alshabaab (from Siilaanyo to Sharif , you say ). And for a man who believes Somaliland is a different country than Somalia, Dismembered Somalia is preferable political outcome than a united one, one understands your narrow frame of reference when it comes to issues relating to Somalia. Go play the SNM bands for that is what you've become good at lately. Again, although we desire Somalia to revive again, we reject the false hope and the newly found faith in Ethiopian and Kenyan armies solving Somalia's problems. For we know from experience such dreams seldom come to fruition. And to be clear, we don't think alshabaab are worse than Ethiopian occupation or Kenyan one for that matter. We don't think Israel is better than Alshabaab, nor do we entertain such radical, extreme propositions to address what is essentially a minor political and security issues. Alshabaab are NOT invincible army. They CAN be engaged politically, and militarily with a UNITED Somalis. Calling anyone to invade the country regardless of the consequence simply alshabaab is bad is the height of intellectual dishonesty. It is unworkable; it happened before to no avail. One notices, perhaps out of desperation, and a clear sign that you have no argument to present, that you are resorting to comment on Xiin's past stances. Whatever Xiin was or supported, a grieve-stricken secessionist he was not. He was for Somalia yesterday, as he is today. What are you for other than Siilaanyo and the failed project that is Somaliland?

Abtigiis, For a man who asserts that Mahiga and UN does not care but Ethiopia and Kenya do and are determined to defeat Alshabaab, I do not think you and I have the same facts or comment on the same reality. You sound like someone who has received revelation so please preach those who have faith in Ethiopia and Kenya efforts. If Ethiopian and Kenyan invasion is the only alternative Somalia has, long live for Alshabaab , I say.

Abtigiis is a wounded man. And the wounded, as the military cliche goes, is particularly dangerous. I am sure he will next write a two page rationalization as to why Netanyahu's military is the most fit to save Somalia from Alshabaab. Alshabaab is evil , you see, so anything that remotely threatens them shall be supported. That is the new logic

We believe that there is a peaceful and progressive alternative to the current descent into war. First, the Government of Kenya can claim that it is a victim of Al-Shabaab but it cannot, at the same time, legitimately maintain to be innocent. Second it must understand that a vibrant, orderly, and democratic Somalia is in Kenya’s long-term interest. This should not be difficult to comprehend given the benefits of Kenya’s unfinished democratic transformation to its citizens. Third, linking up with and endorsing the activities of committed and independent. Somali civics set to reclaim their democratic tradition is the wise thing to do. Fourth, cultivating goodwill with the Somali people at this hour of their need by genuinely supporting humanitarian aid will pay neighbourly dividends for generations to come. Fifth, both Kenyan authorities and the new movement of Somali progressives ought to reclaim the genuine spirit of Pan_Africanism – one that will center mutualities that promote pluralism, tolerance, and the pursuit of strategies of development that bring much needed value to regional welfare. Such a dramatic change of mentality and action promises to be a win-win phase of a new regional history. The immediate upshot will be: (a) the people of Somalia freed from the tyranny of Al-Shabaab, warlords and the incompetent TFG, (b) Somalia spared from further descent into fragmentation, © and the safety and security of Kenya ensured.

domestic Somali conflicts. Despite our strong sympathy for Kenya’s concern about terrorist acts against its citizen, there is still material evidence that Kenya has not been an honest neighbour of Somalia. As a matter of fact, its meddling in Somalia’s domestic political contestation have created circumstance which make Kenya party to the mess in Somalia that enables unsavoury groups like Al-Shabaab to flourish. There are, at least, three instances in which Kenya consciously sided with Somali warlord-cum political actors. First, Kenya hosted the discredited Somali Reconciliation which produced a dysfunctional Transitional Federal Government dominated by warlords. The Chair of that conference was none other than Ambassador Kiplagat who enabled the Ethiopian government to have a free hand in selecting a significant number of the voting delegates. In the early days of the conference, it so happened also that Ethiopian and Kenyan Security officers met in Kenya where the Ethiopians urged Kenya not to waste this opportunity to fix Somalia forever. Second, Kenya wittingly collaborated with Ethiopia during the latter’s bloody invasion of southern Somalia by closing the Somali-Kenya border and by renditioning fleeing Somalis to Ethiopia where many were tortured and some still languish in prison. Third, the “dual-track” strategy towards Somalia, designed by the USA, that came into effect last year has had the effect of further fracturing the political map of Somalia by endorsing “development of regions.” Now, an ever growing number of artificial and clanistic regions led by instrumentalist leaders are making the warlord fiefdoms of yesteryears look like child’s play. There are now over 15 individuals who claim to be “presidents” of those regions. In some cases, there are more than one “president” to a region! “Dual track” has become a profitable license to seek aid-largesse as well as to use the region as a bargaining chip in the presumed federal order that is supposed to replace the transitional disorder. To take advantage of this Bantustan-like chaos, Kenya has assisted the formation of one such region in Somalia’s deep south. Earlier this year, a sectarian group met in Nairobi and formed what they have called “Azania” with a former anthropologist as “president”. There is enough evidence pointing to the Government of Kenya’s interest in the creation of such a region for sometime. Recent WikiLeaks released document this fact. We learn from WikiLeaks that even Kenya’s long time ally, Ethiopia, is worried about Kenya’s approach. For Ethiopia, if such a region comes to pass, it might embolden and provide refuge or camps for the ****** Liberation Front which has been fighting for independence from Ethiopia. “Azania” immediately declared war on Al-Shabaab with the clear assistance from Kenya. Consequently, this strongly suggests that Kenya has been aiding “Azanian” militias long before the recent Al-Shabaab kidnappings. Such an involvement undercuts Kenya’s claim that its actions are only a just response to a violation of its national wellbeing.

Kenyan leaders lambasted the TFG leadership and accused them of complicity with Al-Shabaab, unless it officially endorsed the intervention. Hurriedly, the Somali PM flew to Nairobi and signed a memorandum of agreement with his Kenyan counterpart without a sanction from the other officers and organs of the TFG, let alone a briefing of the Somali people. To be sure, Kenya has every right to defend itself against Al-Shabaab. That said, the key question here is not whether or not this should happen but rather how, when, and, above all, who should be targeted. Thus far, Kenya’s military response seems indiscriminate and, therefore, Somalis and Al-Shabaab have become synonymous. The consequences have been the destruction of civilian lives and property. In addition, Kenya has ordered the population of the ten largest towns in deep southern Somalia to evacuate in order to demolish what Kenya considers Al-Shabaab targets. So far, the citizens of these towns have not been offered an alternative refuge. RIP Somalia? Is the country condemned to eternal damnation? With all of the focus on either the war on terror, warlords, famine, and disputations over which local potentates neighbouring states and the West should support, it is easy for the moderates and the voice of reason to be lost in Somalia. This is not a zero-sum game and there is a middle ground: a nascent progressive Somali alternative opposed to all the destructive and demeaning madness, has arrived on the stage. Consequently, no sane and serious efforts to revive Somalia can exclude this new civic movement. The perspective of this progressive alternative is informed by this political point of view: the Somali people must be allowed the right to determine their political future and to choose their leaders without external meddling, as is currently the case. This is what distinguishes us. We are also realists and , therefore, acknowledge the Herculean task before us – one that requires practical intelligence, courage and determination, and supreme patience. Furthermore, we are acutely cognisant of the dearth of human capital and financial resources. But unlike our predecessors, we are prepared to win the great battle of national reconstitution not through a cowering the Somali population but by (a) redeeming the recent past from self-destruction, (b) inspiring and empowering our people, and © convincing the genuinely sympathetic members of the rest of the world that the Somali people are ready for the appointed time to do the right thing for their country. We are prepared to undertake this historic assignment with imaginative vision, achievable policies and rigorous discipline, always accompanied by a healthy dose of realism. There are good reasons for Somalia and Kenya to cooperate on matters beneficial to both peoples. However, for such cooperation to be legitimate and balanced both sides must bring their combined and best thinking, honesty, mutual respect, and candour to the re-building of the relationship with the understanding that Somalia’s current vulnerability must not be exploited by those who claim to want to help it. In particular, Kenya’s claims about fighting Al-Shabaab must not be used as pretext for extending its influence by involving itself in

By Hiil Qaran The intervention of external forces in Somalia has consistently plunged Somalia into greater wretchedness. Is it possible to compound the suffering of a famine-stricken population? Once again, we find ourselves at a familiar junction: destructive and illegal intervention joined by the continuation of internal chaotic violence compounded by new indignation. We suggest that this situation need not deteriorate further. In so far as Somalia is concerned this time a different solution is called for. That is, one that comes from neither foreign forces invading the country, nor from violent factions within Somalia terrorising the population. For those who don’t yet know, Somalia is experiencing a quiet but nonetheless significant change, a change in which the Somali people have embarked on building a third way that is at once civic-minded and progressive political movement. This effort is gaining enthusiastic support amongst Somalis inside and outside the country. The current crisis facing Somalia today is unprecedented; ditto despairing paralysis and intransigence in the face of this tragedy. Further, unlike the Tsunami and earthquakes that have traumatised populations in other parts of the world, the Somali situation was not only foretold but attempts to raise the alarm ahead of the tragedy fell on deaf ears. The result was predictable: a lot of hand-wringing, soul-searching and raking over the ashes of the world’s most pressing humanitarian concern. Yet the world continues to somnambulate through the problem even as the situation deteriorates and the problem becomes more complex. This is a haven for those with a terrorist or self-interest agenda that seeks to exploit a power vacuum and a vulnerable population. Step forward Kenya and Al-Shabaab. Somalia has been unfortunate for at least two decades during which time warlords and all other merchants of violence have devastated human existence. Al-Shabaab has been the latest group to impose more misery on the population by denying them the basic right to choose their legitimate leaders and to have access to food aid; thus condemning them to famine. In one of its most barbaric and recent assaults on the civilian populations, Al-Shabaab massacred over 70 young Somali students who gathered to find out the results of their academic examination. In addition, the violent adventures of Al-Shabaab have reached other location in the East African region, as witnessed by the bombing of the sports bar in Kampala in 2010, and the kidnapping of hapless tourists as well as aid workers who were serving Somalis made destitute by famine in Kenya. Kenya responded forcefully to Al-Shabaab’s acts by bombing presumed locations inside Somalia, such as the Kismayo harbour, Afmado, and others. As if on cue of contradicting itself, the inept TFG leadership first acknowledged that it had given Kenya the permission to undertake these operations without parliamentary approval, but as Kenya injected its ground forces into Southern Somalia, the TFG leadership back-peddled and claimed that it had never consented to Kenya’s intervention. In return,

Abtigiis;760349 wrote: I support Ethiopian invasion 100%. :D

^^You have a point there :D The notion of Azania and Kenyan tanks appears to have politically trapped certain communities. And the snare it set up for them is worthy of a praise indeed

Miskiin, awoowe Abtigiis iyo rag kalaba macnihii baa ka tegey, nimanka alshabaab la yiraahdo waa cillado badanyihiin laakiin shisheeye ujeedooyin kale watta iyo qab'aail kursi doon ah intaba waa dhaammaan. Caqliga hadda lala or ordaayana lagama adkaan karo. Aniga waxay ila ahayd in horumar xagga xamar laga gaaray , laakiin hadda meeshii hore aa lagu noqonaa, cid ka faa ideysana oon shisheeyaha loo sacab tumaayo ahaynna malaha. Cambuulo iyo bun , fadlan qabaa ilka aad meesha ku qortay tir intaan meesha lagaa cayrin

Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar;759732 wrote: If some maryooleey are blindly claiming their piece of Jubbooyinka and Gedo, why don't claim it too since they settle and live from Dooloow to Luuq to Baardheere to Saakoow and Bu'aale iyo wixii u dhaxeeyo. Soomaali intee tuuladaan anaa leh ku jirto, especially about Jubbooyinka and Gedo, horumar aan gaarno ha sheegin, dib lee u soconeynaa waligeena. Qeyraadkaas Jubbooyinka ku jiro Soomaaliweyn dhan ayee deeqdaa, ee si caddaalad haloo qeybsado, shisheeyaha la isku adeegsanaayana hala iska dhaafo. MMA is right. Wixii 20 sano oo dagaal sokeeye ah lagu waayey, shisheeye maanta soo dhicin maayo

^^...and Siilaanyo grows balls to tell the truth to the masses , and Xaaji Xunjuf is healed from the deep seated cuqdad he is ailing with... Nuune, I share your sentiment but you must realize the fundamentals of the conflict have not changed so I see no reason to panic now awoowe. We will see the full impact of the recent events in the next six months at the earliest I believe. The sky is not going to fall because of Ethiopian and Kenyan invasion. So lets wait and see.

In the onslaught of Nuune's lethally depressing analysis, I, xiinfaniin of SOL, proudly declare to be bullish optimist. Sometimes it helps to fight rude truths with a dose of optimism :D

First off, good Abtigis, repeating NGOGNE's weak, defensive utterances wont make you stronger man . I demand originality from you. The truth of the matter is foreign troops are pouring into Somali territories and you've become cheerleader in chief. Personal attacks against Xiin abound when mustering credible arguments fail. If you truly think Ethiopian and Kenyan invasions are 'reasonable and practical approaches', you are unwittingly pinning your hopes on a demonstrably failed approach. It failed yesterday...I for one do not think repeating it will make it succeed.

^^If that is the case, I agree it is not a departure from the norm

Prof. Abtigis, I take it you sold your soul for mere perceived clannish interest and tribal home land Azania promises for the tolka. I will not be surprised if I see you welcome Ethiopian invasion under the 'alshabaab is evil' mantra. ps. It is not difficulty to support the notion of a national framework while calling out the political naivety of Abdiweli and Sharif.

Is this true? Usually serious politicians in Somaliland and Puntland are very careful to air their misgivings with Ethiopia for obvious reasons. So if Waraabe said what he said publically it is a good departure from the prevailing norm

Sharif is effectively irrelevant now with regards to the Kenyan invasion. Hence the alleged meeting is neither here nor there. Both the Sharif photo opp with Kibaki and Yuweri AND the MOU paper the PM signed earlier in Nairobi show that the current TFG surrendered whatever feeble legitimacy they had. Ironically recent developments in the South have one probable effect; help Alshabaab regain the political/moral support they've lost in the last year.

^^Somalis are fickle people so I am sure even Ethiopian invasion just like Kenya's (two sovereign nations with national interests) will be justified on AMISOM's presence in Xamar Ma hubo in dhan laysku raaci lahaa

^^ :D The model of Egypt is not applicable to Somalia. Somalis have no regime to protest against. Perhaps what Somalia needs is a not-so-secular version of Mustafa Kamel Attaturk, a Turkish General who against all odds liberated his country from a similar scramble i.e. British, Americans, Italy, Armenian, Greece etc in a astonishing three years time. But again Kamel had a proud masses who only lost power 3 or so years ago, and with an imperial roots.