By: Dr, Michael A Weinstein During the second half of November, the process of dividing the territories of post-independence Somalia into a set of dependencies on regional powers (Ethiopia and Kenya) entered its first and tentative phase and immediately stalled. On November 25, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (I.G.A.D.), the sub-regional organization composed of Horn of Africa states, issued a communiqué in which it endorsed Kenya’s invasion of southern Somalia and encouraged Ethiopia to send its forces into central Somalia (which it had already done). The Kenyan and Ethiopian interventions were proximately aimed at attempting to break the control of the Salafist revolutionary movement, Harakat al-ShabaabMujahideen (H.S.M.), over the southern and central regions. The next step would be to replace H.S.M. with regional authorities that would be dependent on Kenya (south) and Ethiopia (center) giving those two states permanent dominant spheres of influence in the territories of post-independence Somalia. There is little prospect that the second step will be taken, at least in the short term. Partitioning /Balkanizing/Cantonizing Somalia Were the partition of “Somalia” into dependencies of Kenya and Ethiopia to succeed, the Somali people would be severely disadvantaged in their international standing; they would not have a single voice on the world stage, but would be, instead, beholden to their regional patrons and, beyond them, to interested external actors (primarily the United States and Western European powers – the “donor”-powers), which would work through Kenya and Ethiopia. The Somali people would be permanently weakened; they would be militarily powerless, economically fragmented, and political stripped of the ability to articulate and defend their interests against conflicting interests that would impinge upon them from external powers that were concerned for themselves, and not for the Somali people. Partition means divide and rule. Djibouti would become the model for the fragmented territories of post-independence Somalia, only now a number of mini-states would contend for the favors, such as they were, bestowed by the patrons in return for economic concessions, diplomatic subservience, and military impotence. The Somali people would be deprived of a political community and their political self-determination. “Somalia” would no longer exist in a political sense, even – as it is now – as an aspiration. The balkanization of “Somalia” is only in its earliest stages and there is currently no guarantee that it will succeed. What has become clear in the last part of November is how balkanization would occur and what form it would be most likely to take. As a completed process, balkanization would take the form of proxy chains articulated in an order of increasing dependency as one moved down the chains. At the top of the chain would be the Western “donor”-powers, which would take care of their interests in anti-terrorism, anti-piracy, exploitation of natural resources, and trade and investment. Within the interest configuration laid down by the “donor”-powers, the regional powers –Kenya and Ethiopia – would take major responsibility for managing their spheres of influence in “Somalia,” and would receive a share of economic advantage and would no longer have to worry about the possibility of confronting a viable Somali state. At the bottom of the chain would be the partitioned and dependent Somali authorities – whichever form they took (“independent” states, autonomous regions, or de facto territories). The Somali authorities would be clients and their leaders would be beholden to their patrons.

Allaa yarxam, allaha naxariis iyo jannaba siiyo Gacan ka xaqdaran baa dishay. Ilaah dadkaa amni iyo xasilooni ha siiyo

Brother Daa'uud you have great imagination and undying optimism. You have every reason to dream of a more united, more progressive , and more stronger Somalia, and believe me it will come. The writings are on the wall. We have experienced one of the greatest tragedy any nation ever faced. And we are to come out of it with a triumphant note I said this before and I repeat it now; we Somalis have proved that we are indeed a resilient people who withstood a phenomenon unimaginable before, and survived. we've been stateless for more than twenty years and we are still standing. The scars of that experience is visible, the wounds are fresh and painful. But we remain undefeated, still crawling to reach that greatness station as a united people. When our center fell, many wrote obituaries to mark our passage, others schemed to take our national treasuries while countless others stole our maritime resources, and devised modern tools to contain our anger and frustration. But we Somalis are blessed people, always reinventing and surviving. Testimonies to our resilience and creativity can be found in the heart of Africa, Middle East, Asia , Europe and North America. Somali refugees, and immigrants are actively competing in all spheres of life. They are trading in S Africa, building factories in Kenya and Uganda. In North America, they are producing fine doctors and engineers, lawyers and economists. In Asia, the freight industry carry Somali businessman's products to various destinations. The services government would normally carry out are executed by active Diaspora. They dig wells, provide banking services, establish communications and construction companies and create media outlets to propagate messages and broadcast their story. In other words, with all the national calamities we faced, we have good reason to expect a triumphant ending. We are more experienced, well versed with the ways of the world, more educated, have more wealth and potential to create even more. We have a country with more than 2000 miles of coast , two great rivers, fertile land that can produce surplus and history and religion that no one has been able to take it from us. And no one will take them now from us no matter how weak or divided we are, we will rise again and over come. Believe me, clan system is dying, and it has no future in Somalia. Everywhere I look I see good and great things. Wars and famines are reality but so are other success stories Somalis are making everyday. Somalia shall come back again

Jacayl Well I am sure your text messages and browser history are private matters. So is your daily conversations. This is picking up steam in the States. Some members of the Congress are beginning to look into this. The big mobile carriers are scrambling for answers. The vendor, Carrier IQ is feeling the heat. Similar expereince happened to a company that was used to call DoubleClick (it is part of Google now) few years back. EDIT: Gheelle, disturbing indeed. DoubleClick used to do the same in the realm of browser history. Without consumers knowledge it used to 'deposit' cookie on the users pc, and assign a unique identifier that would subsequently track browsing histories of that particular 'IP' address. In that way they built huge database, which served as a valuable tool in the area of online advertisement/marketing. That was before the privacy watch dogs detected and researched. All that was reversed and privacy laws were passed to prevent such privacy data collection without consumers consent. The still do it, but the default is 'Opt Out', and not 'In' as was before. Lets hope this thing gets reversed and stopped as well.

Imagine that every key stroke you make, be it typing phone numbers, text messages and URL of websites you visit on your smart phone are recorded, logged and transmitted. Even sites with security encryption that requires a certificate handshake and established trust to transmit data are not exempt. This is crazy! Dangerous security and privacy bridge in US (I don't know about Europe, other continents) Read Trevor Eckhart analysis here. http://androidsecuritytest.com/features/logs-and-services/loggers/carrieriq/ If you are not a tech savvy, watch his Youtube, illustrating the stealth nature of Carrier IQ app, which constantly runs under the radar to collect data from you.

^^Hargeysa in this context means Somaliland waryaa. We've been around these boards long enough to gauge the significance of separatist brothers so I stand by my characterization of the said brothers as foot soldiers. Obviously flies is not a word of endearment so I am little suspicious of what you are up to there Again the point is , wuxuba naf ma leh

LOL@NGONGE's habaar, SL online brigade has unbeatable monopoly on Habaar But unity will be natural outcome of the reconciliation Caravans your lot mocks day in and day out. Force is an option when and if it is needed. Remember the entire SSC movement is part of 'unity-by-force-if-needed'

^ :D Seek shelter or put on your helmet ya Sulayman

^^LOOOOOOOOL Even God endorses the Somaliland project, says Abubakar Cumarow

Aniga iyo Malika cidaan taagernay oo laga adkaaday lama hayyo Saaxibkay NGONGE beryahaan waa allow sahal ; hadhow buu kasoo horjeesan nuune oo dhihi in Ibti guulaysatay ahayd As long nuune is ahead, I can wait until that date, Showqi.

^^I take Ibti back from this mad group. Ibti, along with Northern and Lady Blessed will serve the bridge between Somalia and Hargeysa , insha allaah

I find the sudden interest of UK Prime Minister in the affairs of Somalia the most interesting. In February we will see how the declared conference tackles the question of secession. But as we said before dismembering Somalia is not an easy task. How Oodweyne and NGONGE believed such a nonsense in the first place is beyond me

Oodweyne is the brain, Jacayl the organizer and NGONGE is the mouth. The soldiers are many but Ayoub and Suldan stand out. Ibti was sent to Hargeysa because she could not be trusted in London where she intermingles with Somaliweyn folks. Red Sea, with origins in small town called Bali Gubadle, has finally been bought by the ideals of Alshabaab. I don't know where Qudhac is anymore but some of the minions speak like him. War wuxu naf ma leh, except North and Lady Blessed, the two are the best Hargeysa has thus far offered to this forum. Ilaahow noo daa

If nuune , an admired man in these boards, does not win it will be so because of misdeeds committed by the organizers of this poll. I already sense some voting irregularities . Now is the time to crown the man because he is clearly ahead and has been leading for some time. Prolonging the voting until nuune slips is a clear scheme against the man. Crown him now I say

Some times I think Jacaylbaro, after introducing Oodweyne to SOL (who in turn recruited NGONGE), has now opened a school in Hargeysa to photoshop, cay, habaar and at times post spleen like remarks such the one above . In other words buurahadeer is adhering to the Jacaylbaro school of thought of how to get the shit beat out of the collective separatist spleens and post them on SOL forum. Jacayl barow qoor iyo xeraba ka daba gaallee

^^I don't really care the framework, I want unity , even a forced unity if need be

^^How about foreign troops and teh JIN for your beloved, holly cow called Somaliland

Forum kan maalin walba qolaa usoo kor tagta, if you know what i mean

^^Indeed Xamar is the center of gravity; more populous, more resourceful, and of course the meanest if needed

This is the real aid for Somalis , the only reliable life support Somalis have that reaches almost every family back home. This Bank is preventing aid reaching the famine victims

Che does not understand what 'boqon jar' is. Go nuune, Go nuune If nuune does not win, i know what the reason is.

burahadeer;762495 wrote: secessionist means the one who seceded .Why all this cry from otha people! Time & again you proved you won't be a thing without somaliland.It shows everywhere on how you react on everything concerning SL.Be real men & concentrate on issues at hand.There's nothing absolutely you can do on how SL goes about it's business...It's well known it's not somalinimo on your part but pure hate.Who is going down the drain?the one the whole world couldn't convince to lay down their ****** guns & so many billions & energy spent on them.The one every little army is coming from around the world one after anotha & couldn't make a dent...you guys are the biggest joke.The one their skeletal children & mothers seen around the world on evening news.Just shut up till you come up with something worthwhile.What you doing is like ugly lady constantly scratching the face of the prettier one.OOOOPS. What a spleen

Franklin Bank oo Joojiyey xiriirkii kala dhexeeyay Xawaaladaha Soomaaliyeed ee Gobolka Minnesota Khamiis, December 01, 2011 (HOL) − Franklin Bank oo Xawaaladaha Soomaalida ay ku lahaayeen akoonnada ayaa ku wargeliyay xawaaladaha Soomaalida inuu joojiyay xiriirkii kala dhexeeyay uuna xirayo akoonnada ay ku leeyihiin, iyadoo bankigan uu yahay midka keliya ee ay xawaaladaha Soomaalidu isticmaali jireen. Mas'uuliyiinta Bankigan oo xaruntiisu ay tahay gobolka Minnesota oo ay daggan yihiin Soomaalida ugu badan ee ku nool Mareykanka ayaa madaxda xawaaladaha ula kulmay mid-mid iyagoo siiyay warqado ay ku qoran yihiin in 15-ka December la xirayo akoonnada ay ku leeyihiin bankiga. Bankigan oo ahaa midka keliya ee ay xawaaladaha Soomaalidu xiriirka la laahayeen labadii sano ee lasoo dhaafay ayay sheegeen madaxda xawaaladuhu inay xubnaha ugu sarreeya bankiga ka codsadeen in loo kordhiyo xilliga la xirayo akoonnada, iyadoo madaxbada bankiyada ay codsigaas ka meermeereen, ayna u sheegeen madaxda xawaaladaha inay dib u eegis ku sameyn doonaan codsiga. Saraakiisha Bankiga ayaa sheegay in sababta ay u xirayaan bankiga ay tahay xukun ay maxamadi ku ridday laba haween Soomaaliyeed ah oo lagu eedeeyay inay lacago u direen Al-shabaab, iyagoo intaas ku daray in la taliyeyaashooda dhinaca sharciga ay kula taliyeen inay xiraan akoonnada ay xawaaladaha Soomaalidu ku leeyihiin bankiga. Arrintan ayaa waxay walaac xooggan gelisay mas'uuliyiinta xawaaladaha dalka Mareykanka, iyagoo billaabay inay Soomaalida ku nool dalka Mareykanak ay ka la kulmaan senetarada laga doorto gobollada ay ku nool yihiin si cadaadis loogu saaro in bankiga uu ka laabto go'aanka uu ku xirayo akoonnada xawaaladaha Soomaalida. Aqoonyahannada ku xeel dheer xawaaladaha iyo bankiga ayaa waxay sheegayaan in tani ay caqabad ku noqonayso lacagihii Soomaalida ay u diri jireen Soomaaliyeed taasoo ay dad badan ku tiirsan yihiin noloshooda. Waxaana jira cabsi soo baxaysa oo ku aaddan inay dhacaan musiibooyin ka daran kuwii ka dhacay Soomaaliya horraantii sannadkan, haddii la joojiyo lacagaha ay Soomaalida Mareykanka ku nooli u diraan ehelladooda ku nool gudaha Soomaaliya. Xawaaladaha Soomaalid ayaa waxay akoonnada bankiga Franlkin u isticmaali jireen inay lacagaha ay u dirayaan Soomaalida sii marsiiyaan, waxaana lacagta inta badan ay ku dhici jirtay xafiisyada ay ku leeyihiin Imaaraadka Carabta, halkaasoo ay uga sii gudbi jirtay Soomaaliya iyo dalalka kale ee bariga Afrika. Warbixin laga soo xigtay Bankiga Adduunka ayaa lagu sheegay in sannad walba ay dadka Soomaaliyeed ee dibadaha ku nool u diraan eheladooda Soomaaliya ku sugan lacag ka badan hal bilyan oo dollarka Mareykanka ah. Bankiyada Mareykanka sida US Bank, TCS Bank iyo kuwo kale ayaa horay u joojiyay xiriirkii ay la lahaayeen xawaaladaha Soomaalida, iyadoo bankigan uu noqonayo kii ugu dambeeyay oo joojiya xiriirka xawaaladaha Soomaalida ee Mareykanka. Maxamed Xaaji Xuseen, Hiiraan Online maxuseen@hiiraan.com Muqdisho, Soomaaliya

Wait Abtigis and his essays about the Somaliness of Kenyan army

PasserBy, Alshabaab is thousand times better than Ethiopian invasion into Somalia. Alshabaab, I repeat, is a product of Somali civil war and can only be done away with a genuine political settlement or resolution. Those who dream to keep Somalia stateless and intervene intermittently can only fool the likes of Abtigis and NGONGE , not us adeer Ethiopia is an enemy state, a constant predator vengeful of past experience with Somalia. It is a joke to suggest, Ethiopia is there to help the come back of Somali state There are historians among us adeer who understand and able to contextualize the Somali conflict. Our tragedy has no shortcuts, it requires a comprehensive political reconciliation, not foreign military intervention as apparently advocated.