Abwaan , belaayo ma jirto awoowe. Madaxweynuhu waa keennii , nimanka reer waqooyiga ah hanagu qaldin , anagu saldanada Hassan cuqdad kama qabno, laakiin Kismayo ha tago oo faataxo ha qaato dhibkana ha joojiyo iyo laba canlaynta .

State of Somalia vs. Regional admin apology ? Semantics awoowe. Somaliland is what it is , a part of Somalia, that is how the UN sees it. Mahiga motivation is more to do with the ongoing talks between Somalialnd and FG, than extending a new status to Somaliland. You know that, and I know it. That Somaliland media is playing this thing up in different light is given and understandable . The real question is whether good North think this is worth of the coverage

Why are we talking about Mahida these days? I thought this man's inflated role ended with the roadmap passage. He has been reduced to a mere UN employee with limited portfolio in Mogadishu.

^ Agreed. But the politics of the region need be sorted out for a sustainable security strategy to be devised. What held Kismayo back for the last twenty plus years was the wrong politics that played out.

This was expected. Hassan Sheekh has not come yet to terms with the Jubbaland reality. But in time he will be. He will have to.

Ninkii Abwaan ahaa warkaan ha la gaarsiiyo Aaway kii Zack ahaa?

Somalia: Five committees to prepare Jubaland convention established 30 Nov 30, 2012 - 9:51:53 AM KISMAYO, Somalia Nov. 30, 2012 (Garowe Online) – Five committees to make preparations for the opening of the anticipated convention to establish Jubaland have been setup, Garowe Online reports. According to Jubaland authorities, there have been five committees set up to establish the Jubaland state in southern Somalia. The committees include a Security Committee, Election Committee, Selection Committee, Logistics and Financial Committee, and an Awareness Committee, according to Jubaland sources. Each committee consists of 11 members. The committees will be fundamental in creating the Jubaland state that has been backed by IGAD regional bloc. A total of 485 delegates from the local communities in Lower Jubba, Middle Juba, and Gedo regions will be invited to the convention. The delegates are expected to discuss and ratify the Jubaland state charter that legally establishes Jubaland. A new Jubaland State Parliament is expected to be formed, which will then elect a new state president. According to local sources in Kismayo, the frontrunner for President of Jubaland state is Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Ahmed Madoobe), who is the leader of Ras Kamboni militia aided by Kenyan-AMISOM forces in the liberation of Kismayo from Al Shabaab group’s control in September. The three regions that make up Jubaland include Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba, and Gedo regions in southern Somalia. The 485 Jubaland convention delegates are allocated as such: 185 delegates for Lower Jubba region, 165 delegates for Gedo region, and 135 delegates for Middle Jubba region. Local communities have been actively involved in establishing Jubaland state since earlier 2012. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has opposed Jubaland, preferring instead to appoint a local governor from Mogadishu. Jubaland communities have protested President Hassan’s position, and in recent public speeches, President Hassan has softened his position on Jubaland. Security has improved in Kismayo, although Al Shabaab fighters have been responsible for bombings and guerrilla attacks. Once formed, Jubaland will join states like Puntland to form part of the new Federal Republic of Somalia.

The Diaspora has no disdain toward him. The opposition has failed to gain any traction from the Diaspora. The man is doing good job with respect to the current Federal government and the secessionist admin in the North.

Passeryby, easy with this novice's talk of yours. Propaganda is at the heart of politics. The story line and narrative of Ethiopia's Somali region is in agreement with Professor Abtigiis's analysis. And this is how it goes: Ethiopian leadership props up illegitimate leaders in the region , let them gain status and power, and replace them without a reasonable justification or local input. Whether this pattern holds true for president Illey is another matter...but Abtigiis did not make that much of leap to predict ina Illey's downfall at the hands of Ethiopia's leaders.

^^ :D Gabaygaaga xunka ahna waan arkay ee ogow

Professor Abtigiis's analysis on the internal politicking of Ethiopia does not warrant this post. He shared with us what was at the time in the rumor mills of Ethiopia's political circles. He backed them up with real analysis as to why such outcome was plausible. That it did not take place is not a reason to doubt the good Professor's sources nor does it dent his analytical rigor.

Waryaa XX waxay Somaliland tan aad nala dhexqaaday? Waxaa laga hadlayaa madaxweynuhu dawladdahan Soomaaliya daba guraya inuu seexiyo , oo maaweeliyo ma u bannaantahay inta Xamar laga xasilinayo mise , ninku si fiican u salaamaba taxliilin iyo niqaash baa laga furayaa . Taa weeye su'aashu awoowe. OdeySomali shiddada haysataa waxa weeye , meel xikmad u baahan xiniinyo, iyo qab rabaa inuu geliyo. Waa tii alshabaab oo kale soow maaha

Gabbal is an online phenomenon worth observing; the constant battle between reality vs. perception. Reality: Kismayo as a city and the region overall did not change much demographically. The clan settings of 1990s and prior still hold. Perception: Gabbal is the dominant group in Kismayo , all other groups and clans have been significantly reduced in influence---according to good Gabbal , no sane person familiar with the region can dispute this . the Hs and Os must practice's Gabbal's courtesy when speaking/discussing the Kismayo affairs ...

OdaySomali, This mere announcement of intent does not warrant your anger at the president. He is new , the new kid on the block if you will, facing established powers and intrenched geopolitical interests in the region. A wise leader's objective in such situation would be to size the situation, play meek to quite down adversaries...and buy time. The Somali project is owned by bigger prowers than this poor African country Somalis seems to have obsession with. Ethiopia is demographically big , but economically poor, and politically unstable. She is no position to take independent initiatives outside of its borders. Just like Kenya, the role of Ethiopia in the Somali project is determined not by pure national interests of theirs but by the accommodations and designs of the powers that be. Further more we have seen bigger and grander announcements before (i.e. the Somali navy being based in Jabbuuti) only to see them fail to come to fruition. And as XX noted Ethiopia is already a player and has boots on the ground. So once again , I don't see the big fuss here.

I say it is not. Ethiopia has no capacity to build anyone's army. You know that, we know that. This is a pure geopolitical play , a diplomatic stroke on Ethiopia's feelings in the region. Waryaa call Xamar , find out the real story. You see, a warm hand is always better than a cold one with a shank. Here the president is playing well. The era of confrontations and empty slogans are over. He gets that.

LOL@article Goobaale was used to swift-boat president Hassan , to bind him on the issue of Kismayo. The author took it a bit serious than it was originally intended to be

This is not a big deal. Think of it as another African country wanting to milk some reconstruction money from Somalia. It will not be Ethiopia that will rebuild Somali army, Turkey, Egypt and US will. Just like Uganda, Ethiopia will at best be staging area for the project. So I dont blame Hassan on this. On Kismayo, that is where He embarrassed himself, and come out quite small and naive .

Apparently, Carmo is not supportive of the president ; the pictures tell the real story. The old man with the English sign should've stayed home. Overall, I like Faroole better than his opponents. He does what he says he will do.

^^Abwaan, xaggiina xaaladu habaar bay maraysaa , nimankii aad erideen 20 sano ka hor baa iyagoo dawlad ah soo noqday . Zack wuxuu ii sheegay in waddadii Gaarisa iyo Kismayo injineeraddu qorsheheedii dhammeeyeen Waryaa dadku ha nasteen , ee habaarka ka daaya

Great analysis, Baashi.

Mintid Farayare arrinta Kismayo wuu ku wareeray

Baashi;893410 wrote: ^ There is only one faction who find themselves at the receiving end of all these shifting alliances! Care to know why? Qoloda magaaladda intaan la il bixin loogu yimid weeye qolodaad sheegaysaa :D.

NGONGE;893367 wrote: ^^ He already told Abtigiis to concern himself with ONLF only. Told Hatuu to worry only about Garrisa and even Xaaji Xunjuf was ordered back to Somaliland. But Abwaan is a nationalist who does not do qabyaalad. Hada danbi baad gali hadaad taa ku tuhuntid! @danbi baad gali Only if Abwaan could appreciate the glaring discrepancy ...

^^War ninyahow waxba ma fahamtid , cuqdad baas bay kaaga dhegtay. Haddii xiin aad tuhunsantahay inuu Cadbiweli la carooday, dadkale ee Abtigiis , Yunis ay ugu horreeyaan maxaa iyaga ku dhacay? Adeer is giiji, oo baro sida loo wax loo taageero, waxna loo caarido

Abwaan, After president Hassan's poor performance in his first month, a lot of folks are supporting Kismayo to ensure that Somalia does not revert back to civil war years.