The Status of the Conflict It is too early in the conflict over the state-form that Somalia will/might take to make a grounded prediction about its outcomes. The S.F.G. has only attempted to implement its strategy of political conflict in earnest since the return of Hassan to Mogadishu in mid-February from his round of visits to the external actors with interests in Somalia. Having touched base and gotten promises of support, Hassan had to try to “deliver” on his end of the bargain, showing that he led a (potentially) effective government. Hassan’s most important political front, which demands his immediate attention, is the south, where a convention is slated to be held on February 23 to form a Jubbaland state comprising the Lower and Middle Jubba regions and the Gedo region. Approximately 500 delegates, including elders from the three regions are expected to attend, with the S.F.G. and regional states (Ethiopia and Kenya) as observers. Up until the present, it has appeared that the Jubbaland process would issue in a regional state modeled on Puntland. The S.F.G. will try to reverse that outcome. According to one source, Hassan’s strategy has found willing supporters among sub-clans in the south that feel disadvantaged by the dominance of Ahmed Madobe, the interim governor in Kismayo, and his Ras Kamboni militia, which is allied with Kenyan forces in the south and is mainly composed of members of the Mohamed Suber sub-clan of the ******-*****. That leaves other ****** sub-clans, the *********-***** (with ties to Puntland), and the *******-***** more or less disposed to thwart any attempt by Madobe to dominate the Jubbaland state. Another source confirms open-source reports that ex-warlord and ******* leader, Barre Hirale, has met with Hassan and is “on good terms with the S.F.G.” The source says that the ******* will “listen to Hirale if he is empowered.” Meanwhile, on February 13, Garoweonline reported that a delegation whose members are involved in forming a Jubbaland state met with Puntland’s president, Abdirahman Mohamed Farole, to discuss how “Puntland’s efforts to establish [the] Jubbalnad state could be improved.” On February 15, Garoweonline reported that Hassan and the S.F.G.’s prime minister, Abdi Farah Shirdon, who is *******, had split on the Jubbaland issue, with Shirdon supporting the ongoing process and Hassan attempting to undermine it.

By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein A confrontation over the form of federalism that a future Somali state would adopt is looming, as confidential sources report that the provisional Somali Federal Government (S.F.G.) is in the process of making a concerted push to control the formation of local, regional, and presumptive regional-state administrations in south-central Somalia. The S.F.G., say the sources, is attempting to resist the early formation of a Jubbaland state in the south that would base itself on a decentralized-federal model, as Puntland has done; head off a similar process to the one in the south in the southwestern Bay and Bakool regions by placing an administration allied to it in charge there; counter the Galmudug authority in the east-central area by backing ex-warlord Abdi Qeybdid against the sitting government; and influence the leadership that will succeed the recently-deceased chair of the Ahlu Sunna wal-Jamaa (A.S.W.J.) movement, Sh. Mohamed Yusuf Hefow, that controls most of the central and east-central regions of Galgadud and Hiiraan. On each of those political fronts, the S.F.G. faces opposition, both locally and nationally by the autonomous state of Puntland, which resists the S.F.G.’s bids for control. The S.F.G.’s Strategy of Political Conflict By adopting a strategy of political conflict in south-central Somalia’s regions, the S.F.G.’s president, Hassan Sh. Mohamud, is attempting to solve his most pressing political problem, which is to establish the S.F.G.’s authority – dominance and control – over those regions. In the process of trying to do so, Mohamud is forcing the issue of what the state-form of Somalia will be. The options have narrowed down to two, a centralized federalism favored by the S.F.G. and its allies, and a decentralized federalism advocated by Puntland and its allies. The core political conflict in Somalia is between the S.F.G. and Puntland over state-form; the south-central regions are the arenas in which that conflict is being played out. Both the S.F.G. and Puntland are aware of the high stakes involved in their confrontation; if the S.F.G. prevails in the south-central regions, Puntland will be politically isolated and subject to pressure to abandon its autonomy, which gives it generous control over its natural resources and security policy; if Puntland is able to block the S.F.G., the latter will have had to cede significant authority over nascent regional states. The S.F.G.’s pursuit of a strategy of political conflict has turned a constitutional issue into a political power struggle. Whether or not the S.F.G.’s strategy succeeds – and its success is highly problematic – that strategy is intelligible and follows from the power position of the S.F.G. The new federal government was to all intents and purposes imposed by the Western “donor”-powers/U.N. under veiled and explicit threats to withdraw financial support. The “donor”-powers wanted a “permanent” government established in Somalia so that they could decrease their commitment to the country and at the same time make agreements favorable to them with it. In pursuing those aims, they ended up settling for a provisional/interim entity operating under an incomplete constitution that left the fundamental question of state-form open; absent from the constitution was a determination of centralized or decentralized federalism, and there were not yet regional states set up in south-central Somalia. As a result of the “donor”-powers’ actions, the S.F.G. was left with the challenge of establishing its authority in the south-central regions without a constitutional basis, scant resources to buy allies in the regions, and military forces that did not extend beyond the capital Mogadishu. Under those constraints, the S.F.G. had few options; it could renounce the attempt to control the south-central regions and allow those regions substantial autonomy, which would weaken whatever (potential) power it might have; or it could do what it has chosen to do, which is to contest the forces for decentralized federalism region by region by allying with factions in each region that felt marginalized by nascent autonomous administrations with power bases independent of the S.F.G. The new federal government opted for the latter, which set up the conditions for political conflict. A source reports that the strategy of political conflict was urged upon Hassan by his inner circle of advisers from his Damul Jadid movement. Read on: http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_The_S_F_G_s_Strategy_of_Political_Conflict.shtml

http://www.hiiraan.com/news/2013/Feb/wararka_maanta26-21030.htm

Talaado, Feberaayo 26, 2013 (HOL) — Madaxweynaha Puntland, C/raxmaan Sheekh Maxamed Faroole ayaa maanta magaalada Garoowe kula kulmay wafdi uu hoggaaminayo danjiraha Britain ee dalka Soomaaliya, Matt Baugh oo booqasho gaaban ku tagay xarunta Puntland. Kulankooda kaddib ayaa madaxweynaha Puntland oo saxaafadda la hadlay wuxuu sheegay in danjiraha uu kala hadlay xiriirka Britain iyo Puntland u dhexeeya, isagoo xusay in Britain ay u ballan-qaaday in maamulkooda ay ka taageerto mashaariicda horumarineed, amniga, dhisidda dimuqraadiyadda iyo hannaanka ugu wanaagsan ee loo qaban karo doorashooyinka deegaan oo Puntland ka dhaca. “Waxaa naga go’an inaan sii adkeyno sugidda ammaanka Puntland,” ayuu ku yiri Faroole war uu siiyay saxaafadda, isagoo sheegay in maamukiisa ay ugu jiraan dadaal dheeraad ah sidii ammaanka Puntland oo dhan uu u noqon lahaa mid la isku halleyn karo. Danjiraha Britain oo isaguna hadlay ayaa sheegay inay dowladdiisu ay sii wadi doonto taageerada ay siiso Puntland iyo guud ahaan Soomaaliya, wuxuuna rajo ka muujiyay in doorashooyinka la filayo inay Puntland ay ku dhici doonaan si xaq ah oo ay uusan musuqmaasuq ku jirin. Sidoo kale, Baugh oo ku hadlayay magaca Midowga Yurub ayaa sheegay in il-gaar ah ay ku fiirin doonaan dhaqdhaqaaqa siyaasadeed ee Puntland ka jira, wuxuuna ku boorriyay xisbiyada siyaasadda ee maamulka Puntland in ay ahmiyad siiyaan nabadgalyada oo ay ka fogaadaan wax kasta oo abuuri karta carqalad. Booqashada wafdigan ka socday dalka Birtain ayaa waxay imaanaysaa iyadoo dhawaanahan ay Puntland ka dhacayeen mudaaharaadyo looga soo horjeedo maamulka Faroole iyo iyadoo dhawaan lagu dilay Garoowe Sheekh C/qaadir Gacmey oo ka mid ahaa culummada Soomaaliyeed kuwooda ugu waaweyn. Maxamed Xaaji Xuseen, Hiiraan Online maxuseen@hiiraan.com Muqdisho, Soomaaliya

^^they really think the numbers are exaggerated even though both Ethiopian and Kenyan census support it. Dadkaa baa raba hadhow inay dawladnimo iiga sheekayaan. Waagii caydiid carcartiisa qabay buu wuxuu ku yiri dhalinyaro Abwaan iyo leh dalkuba waa idinka marka saxaraha Puntland laga reebo

^^when everything else fails, it is xiin that is at fault ---a familiar strategy from you Abwaan

loooooool@ mayiiko waxaa iigu danbaysay waagan suuqa miijiska cajjiinka ka shiidi jirey. those were the days awoowe, makiinad cajiin was our malls ..

Oba, It is real math. You are still stuck with Caydiid's statistics after chasing Barre from Mogadishu . Remember the USC white paper with respect to Somalia's demographics

Odey;921874 wrote: I may not agree with all the points raised and it seemed like an attack on the individual, but the Arms embargo should stay in my view because of the following reasons 1- We do not have a Professional army that can be trusted with such heavy weapons, nor do they have a Nationalistic View/Mindset or have a wider appeal in its make up that people trust. Their moral compass is questionable still and have a long way to go. 2- We are in the phase of winding down a Civil War and until peace takes hold and we are in a position to move away from talking with a barrel pointing at each other, I strongly believe more weapons isn't going to help 3- We are a poor nation and we shouldn't be purchasing weapons, but instead should be purchasing medical equipment, building roads and investing in other assorted infrastructure. 4- Rebuilding a huge army will immediately make our neighbors uneasy, particularly since our politics hasn't evolved beyond the gun. 5- There is a great danger that these weapons will be sold to the highest bidder as they have done for a long time now and cause yet more bloodshed. I think the embargo should stand and even tightened for the exception of Defense capability, coupled with a wider professional training of our security services. They should all be taught Citizenship from a military standpoint and their duties instilled in them so they don't differentiate between the citizens they have been sworn to protect. Their powers and involvement should be made clear and jurisdictions defined, particularly when operating inside the country. a lot has to be done before arms embargo is lifted. This is what reasoning looks like. Ciyaalka xaafada need to learn from this fellow.

The Zack;921897 wrote: I know i know... It is very hard to believe same sub clan inhabits in Jubbaland, NFD, O'gadenia. Very shocking specially when all you got is parts of Galgaduud and parts of Mudug. When i put myself in your shoes, i feel your frustration. LOL Abwaan seriously jinnoole waaye , he doubts the 7 million strong that inhabits from Godey to Garisa, all the way to Ceelbarde, Kombooni

^^Well the irony is the conference was postponned to give the federal government a political space to participate in the conference. Stay tuned Abwaan the conference will commence soon insha Allah. If you know the ammount of effort put in this conference, and the mobilization that took place , and how many delegates already in Kismayo, you would not have doubts that it will take place. But you are still listening Ahmed Diriye's clan sermons

LOL@caruurta la so ciyaar This is a very serious subject indeed. I am bit flexible and see the need for lifting the embargo. But Hassan's leadership leaves a lot to be desired. If he cant handle a simple case like Kismayo, if he does not believe federalism is an agreed political settlement and no room for walking back on it in his term, then there is a legitimate argument to be made that current national leadership are not ready for moving the country forward.

^^You see Carafaat, you are a child amongst elders. That we look the other way does not mean we are here to engage you or discuss weighty matters like Kismayo. Yours is obviously frivolous ...

^LOL Professor Abtigiis cannot be so easily drawn into a debate he knows he won fair and square.

Hear Hear

^^Yeah The big tent it is. Where is Abtigis by the way ? Any word from him?

^^Che gurigiisii ma helay horta?

^^The government has the responsibility of national leadership. Those in Kismayo have no such responsibility. Yet they have been behaving surprisingly courteous notwithstanding the airport incident a month or so ago. The government has failed all of us with respect to this issue. There is a serious credibility issue here. The president whom I met in Minneapolis seemed rationale and responsible when he talked. Yet the incompetence coming out of Mogadishu in handling a simple issue like Kismayo is astonishing really.

^^Who said the big tent is not part of Caravan. I am disappointed in you these days. One of the fruits of the peace Caravan that Sharif led was the Federal structure. Our fierce advocacy for Jubbaland is in line with our original vision of Somalia reviving itself from the ashes of civil war.

By Faisal A. Roble Feb 26, 2013 “More than 100 religious leaders and business executives, a doctor and other prominent residents of this Port city were hunted door to door and killed in three nights of terror that began on the eve of the Americans landing in Mogadishu...” Jane Perlez, New York Times, Dec. 1992 “Someone’s looter/killer is another person’s hero.” President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud This piece is the last of a three-part installment on the deteriorating political situation of the presidency of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The crusade which his government is waging to have the world community lift the arms embargo comes at a time when political conflict is at its highest since the 1991 civil war. His zeal to go after arming his troops at this time in the country’s history and his unwavering sabotage of local efforts in Jubbaland are all the more troubling. As a recent Garoweonline editorial opined, “Somalia needs a major disarmament and demobilization plan, but instead the country's new president is asking for more weapons.” Few days after this editorial was posted, about eleven people were killed in Kismayo in a serendipitous conflict that pits Mogadishu against Kismayo. In December 1992, nearly about twenty years ago, the late General Aidid’s militia murdered about hundred civilians in a witch hunt that Jane Perez of the New York Times documented. Not to go back to those days where mass killings happened with impunity, the AMISOM forces are in a bid to find the culprits responsible for the Kismayo murders of February 23, 2013. When History should be Lesson for Arms Embargo This is not the first time Somalis smelled the coffee and felt the danger associated with weapons supplied to their beleaguered nation; they rightfully raised their voices and pleaded with Western nations in the past to exercise caution prior to supplying destructive weapons to Somali leaders. In the late 1980s, for example, when the government of Siyad Barre was carrying its massive atrocities in Northern Somalia (Somaliland), one of the Somali National Movement’s (SNM) activists (Dr. Hussein Bulhan) wrote an op-ed piece on the New York Times. Under the heading of “No Arms to Somalia,” the activist argued that arms given to the dictatorial regime of the late Siyad Barre would most likely be used against its own civilians. It so happened that, according to Africa Watch, the Barre regime was at the time “at war with its own people” in the North and eventually killed thousands of innocent civilians with the very weapons the US government and other western countries supplied to the late dictator, Mohamed Siyad Barre. The critics on the government side at the time called the author of the op-ed piece, “unpatriotic,” and a “Somalia hater.” Many sought to silence him. In hindsight, we now know that the eclipse that blanketed Northern Somalia could have been averted, or its impacts possibly minimized, if the US did not jump the gun so quickly on arming Barre. More importantly, the very same weapons of destruction that the US gave to Barre fell in the hands of Southern Somalia’s warlords and ended up being the weapons of mass destruction in the “Clan Cleansing in Somalia’s Ruinous Legacy” of the 1990s civil war. Dr. Lidwien Kapteijin’s new book, “Clan Cleansing in Somalia: The Ruinous Legacy of 1991,” is a seminal work in the study and assessment of the effects of the massive carnage bestowed on Somalis in the 1991 civil war. The existing arms embargo instruments on Somalia, as stipulated under resolutions UN 751 and 753, were imposed in 1992 by the world community mainly to slow down the carnage of the day in Southern Somalia. Many forces were responsible to bring these instruments to fruition. Unlike the 1980s outcry, the world listened to the 1992 plea and imposed arms embargo on Somalia. The heavy lifting was done by hard working and fast lobbying diaspora groups. But the most influential work was carried out by the late Omar Moalin Hilawle, who served Somalia’s ambassador to the US in the 1960s. Ambassador Omar used his massive connections and relationships to put weighty pressure on Pateros Ghali, the then Egyptian-born UN General Secretary. Also, international aid groups in Kismayo, Bardheere and Baydhabo witnessed real atrocities against civilians and then helped push for embargo. Prior to the arms embargo, the world watched silently (between 1990 and 1992) when thousands of Somalis, mainly from certain groups, were butchered in the infernos of Mogadishu, Galkayo, Kismayo, Baydhabo, Baardheere, and many other locations in South Somalia. The 1990s was one of the darkest and most momentous in Somali history; it was a period when Somalia’s civil war was at its zenith, causing massive famine and wanton killings of civilians. It was also a period when the most powerful President and leader of the free world President Clinton did nothing to secure aid for starving Somali indigents? Neither did President Clinton help stave off the killing fields of Somalis in the hands of merciless warlords. In the following years, America simply did not want to be reminded of Somalia due to its dismal performance in the Somalia political conflict; Somalia affairs got worse after18 rangers were killed and the ensuing humiliation of US power in the hands of Mogadishu-based militia. The Somali question was completely relegated to oblivion following the massive heart attack Les Aspen sustained as a result of stress induced by the Somalia crisis. Read more: http://www.wardheernews.com/public_html/Articles%202013/Feb/26_Arms_embargo_Faisal.html

^^Caraaf is a confused soul. My answer was more of a public consumption.

Oodweyne, The government is unfortunately wounded on the Kismayo matter. I heard the president is so obsessed with this region that he ignored sound advise from his ministers, prime minister included. As you can in the article above, the conference will go on with or without the government. Many thought it would be symbolically important for Federal government to attend and bless it. Alas it wasn't meant to be ....

Somalia: Ministerial delegation will ‘consider’ taking part in Jubaland convention 26 Feb 26, 2013 - 7:22:50 AM KISMAYO, Somalia Feb 26 2013 (Garowe Online) – A Somali Federal Government (SFG) ministerial delegation who visited Kismayo on Monday said that they would “consider” participating in the Jubaland state formation convention after failing to move the conference to Mogadishu, Garowe Online reports. Following a statement on by SFG Minister of Interior Abdikarim Hassan Guled who said that the SFG would be holding a state formation convention for Jubaland – which had already been underway by the Jubaland community – the minister led a delegation to Kismayo. Sources in Mogadishu said that the delegation used grounded Horn Air Aviation’s plane – without the consent of company officials – to depart to Kismayo. The plane carried Minister of Finance, Minister of Security and Minister Guled who met with Jubaland officials in Kismayo to discuss the recent conflict and the Jubaland state formation process. Moallim Mohamed Ibrahim, spokesman for the Jubaland convention organizing committee, told Somali media that the meeting with the SFG officials occurred at the Kismayo airport. According to local sources in Kismayo, the delegation from Mogadishu requested that the Jubaland state convention be held in Mogadishu. The sources told GO that Kismayo interim officials told the delegation that it’s only fitting that the state formation process be held in Kismayo and not Mogadishu. The ministerial delegation was quoted as saying that they would “consider if they could participate in the state formation convention”, that is slated for the coming days. The officials also discussed the recent conflict in Kismayo between armed militia and police which resulted in 9 deaths. Kismayo officials stated that the situation had been eased and a mediation committee had already interceded in the matter. The SFG delegation returned to Kismayo and sources tell us that they’re consulting with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud whether or not the SFG should take part in the Jubaland state convention. Spokesman Ibrahim told Somali media that Jubaland officials have always extended their state formation invitations to the SFG but haven’t received a concrete answer. Mr. Ibrahim said that the Jubaland conference was delayed initially so that SFG officials could send representatives to attend. The community led Jubaland state formation process has been underway for the past few years and has come under pressure by Somali government officials in Mogadishu, who have opposed the state formation process, despite the legitimacy of state-building under the country's Federal Constitution.

If it helps our brothers in the North, corrections has been made to the Professor Gandi's original initiative. Today Kenya is under AMISOM mandate just like Uganda. The name is no longer Azania , it is Jubbaland. Gedo and all other communities are included in the process. On top of that, there was a mini gathering in Nairobi hotels to sort out Sheep N Shoe disagreements in the region. The leadership has been conceded to our numerous brothers who surround the region from all corners. It is a big tent, and the strongest among us fiercely guard it .

It turns out the Minister and his delegates came with no assesable purpose other than to milk the little incident that took place in Kismayo, which was more or less taken care of by the local leadership. The Minister and his delegates by all accounts did not enter the city, his two hour stay was completely restricted in the Airport viscinity. And the fact that he was alone in his press talk , and Madobe was not there to talk to the press (as reported) shows that no understanding was reached on the basic underpining issue of the minister's hasty trip. It is hard to believe that the incident warranted a government delegation to come and 'mediate between parties', as announced.