For the said reform to be taken seriously, and for HSM to be given benefit of the doubt against, those changes in Presidential term, system and voting on parties/local elections would start after his term in 2026.
And meantime the government would focus on local reconciliation, stabilization and building district authorities.
Government should have prioritized the following steps;
1. Reconciliation takes place in each and every local community of different groups, clans and solving
2. Based on reconciliation come to agreement on shared values and local social contract that ensure inclusivity and shared commons (Meeshan wa wada leenahay).
3. Ensure formation of inclusive district authorities that are based on communal consultation and participatory approaches(dowlada hoose dadka la tashata oo la shaqeysa).
4. Prioritize training and equipping local police from local communities, that is serving the local peace and local governance (decoupled from Federal/State led militias).
5. Let the local authorities and communities work on concrete basic service deliveries in localities. Ensure transparency and inclusive participation is adhered to. Encourage local communities compete with one another for development, good governance and community participation(incl Diaspora sections).
6. Ensure FGS/FMS are working closely together and are on the same page on process steps 1-5, and mitigate any spoilers or actor politicizing or polarizing local process for local community reconciliation, and local governance establishment.
But by attaching at this stage local elections for district councils, with national party formation and national elections, without any reconciliation, stabilization having taken place in localities and without having first put in place cohesive local governance authorities, one is basically turning local districts in to highly politicized, polarized and explosive settings. This might lead to a repeat of what happened in Mogadishu between April-June 2021, but then this time in all Somali districts it could turn to violent standoffs fueled by competition for political stakes. Very unwise to do so.