Today I want to address the political reality of the Laascaanood uprising. According to Puntland analysts, after the dust settles, the political issues surrounding Khatumo could be more difficult than the war itself. To gage the other side of the KHaatumo Vs Somaliland conflict, I had a long discussion with a gentleman from Puntland. While the overwhelming public or I should say almost everyone in Puntland supports the Khaatumo uprising in Laascaanood, The political elite sees things differently. according to Puntland political insiders, there are big gabs in terms of the end goal. So, to gage the thinking of the Puntland political class, I had to sit down to this guy and hear it from the horse's mouth. Galbeedi: We all know the Laascaanood uprising had united the Garaad community, but let us discuss where it is heading after guns become silent? Puntland Guy: THere is a difficult road ahead, one that is more difficult than the current war. I am talking about what kind of political form will Khaatumo establish after the war. Galbeedi: If they form their own provisional administration, get Defacto recognition from the federal government just like the early stages of Galmudug circa 2011-2012, wouldn't that be enough for starters? Puntland Guy: The federal government under president Hassan Sheikh will not recognize Khaatumo. The first HSM regime in 2012, refused to recognize Jubbaland despite Ahmed Madoobe controlling KIsmaayo and surrounding area with no significant opposition. He relented and accepted due to trhe huge pressure Puntland and others put HSM including protests while he was visiting USA. THat is when HSM started the Galmudug state project. Besides, HSM has to organize Galmudug due to his close association with that community and to avoid pressure and clashes in Mogadishu and central Somalia. But Khaatumo isn't Galmudug. Galbeedi: Is it possible to apply the same pressure to HSM in order to recognize Khaatumo? Puntland Guy: No. That is out of the question. HSM is a tribally minded leader and for him recognizing Khaatumo means welcoming another H..ti or D block region which no no in his book. If the pressure becomes unbearable the best, he could do is allow Khaatumo under Puntland sphere. In Mogadishu, there is a code of policy to sideline Puntlanders and enhance the JUbbland branch of the D block. Galbeedi: Are the Khaatumo guys willing to be under the protection of Puntland politically to have their own Maamul? Puntland Guy: Even if Somaliland leaves the area and projects its security forces far away from Laascaanood, they will face uncertainty. If you remember, the Galmudug of president Caalin controlled a district of Baraxley in Gaalkacayo, but president Faroole made them full partners by inviting them the Garoowe 1 and 2 despite their weakness and lack of territory. It was a political move. So, for Khaatumo to survive in the next difficult stage they must come under the Puntland wings and cover. They could access the foreign donor share through Garoowe and so on. But if they believe the fairy tale of the Somali government and became antagonistic to Puntland they will suffer. Galbeedi: I am sensing that you don't have a faith of Khaatumo standing by itself without leaning to no one? Isn't that the typical Puntland political goal of swallowing that region. Puntland Guy: Not at all. There are many people who are bi-lingual in Khaatumo ( Here he doesn't mean about speaking French Ala Canada parlance) and Behind the public uprising there is a deep tension. There is a group among Khaatumo that got rich through Somaliland either with business connections or political patronage and that group isn't fully on board yet. Galbeedi: There is tension in every region and community today. What is your biggest fear? Puntland Guy: My biggest fear is clashes among them. They must avoid that in order to survive at this difficult time. Also, they must avoid the rise of a warlord among the uprising and the community. Puntland, despite its internal problems had avoided a warlord to rise in their regions. Today February 15, as we speak, I have seen a video clip of a would-be warlord claiming to be in charge. Galbeedi: who are you referring to? Puntland Guy: He is the Qat trader guy called Mohamed Djibuutaawi. Today he publicly said he is in charge and was sending conflicting messages to Muuse Biixi. He might have some money and militia, but he has no capacity to sort these problems. As I said the next two years will be tough and since there is no recognition coming from the federal government, they better establish a good relationship with Puntland. Also, Hargeisa, not the Maamul, but the city itself, is captivating and many people from Puntland and Garaad community go there for big city life which isn't possible in Garoowe or Boosaaso. Furthermore, it is expensive to maintain the life style of the KHaatumo elite. Galbeedi: Don't you see that 2023 is a different era? . People had paid for the ultimate price and this project and the stakes are higher than usual? Puntlanf Guy: Of course, they have no choice but to fight, but they have to see now the rough road ahead. Galbeedi: What could Somaliland do to sideline or damage the Khaatumo project? PUntland Guy: Everyone knows that Somaliland will lose any war no matter what, but their strength is political mechanizations and balkanizing the Khaatumo. Well folks those are the main points. As we speak, Muuse is sending finally the elders from Somaliland. The meeting will happen in OOg if Khaatumo Garaads accept it. It looks that these elders will be cover for Muuse to accept the order of the international community. The elders will recomend the relocation of the forces which is the minimum Khaatumo will accept. Finally, the guns might become silent.

Dear Galbeedi, Is your PL friend by any chance a resident of Nairobi? Or a fat cat suckling unto a padded tit adorned with glossy lipstick? I ask, for he comes across as a darn revisionist in his thinking, a sentiment shared by others of his leanings including some of SSC folk. His analyses is stale, if left-leaning, and is speaking from a position of expired logic, if mental retardation. Today's SSC is not quite that of Galaydh's Khaatumo, is led by Garaado, and is harder to break their will, and resolution. PL is weakened with pychopathic Deni, alienating regions, at its helm, and so is SL with schizopherenic Bihi killing its people one region at time, and managing to keep HYonis out of its sphere, both of which play to SSC's advantage. PL admin has a single role: that of supporting SSC, and if unable, PL people & Issims shall step in, as they are doing at the moment, to usher SSC in out from the cold. The future if SSC is no longer at the mercy of villa Garowe or Xamar, but at Las Anod, something your PL friend failed to consider, and whilst their support is of value, it is no longer as critical as it perhaps once were. The campaign to recognise SSC as a polity on its own merit, has already begun with Issims and political classes elsewhere receptive to the idea, where if the needed support is being secured, softer landing at its desired destination is expected. Tough indeed the goings shall be, but lessons from the recent past shall help sail the SSC ship to a safe ground. The most viable option for SSC is that of a provisional Federal State similar to those satellite admins in Jawhar & Beledweyn. Short of that is unacceptable. GalMudug, carved out of S Mudug is a State for a reason, and so is Delaware. As for Jabutawi's bellowings post lengthy khat-induced late night sessions, he is merely speaking to his former Yardie bosses in the blunt language they understand, which is not a concern for SSC folk.

I wanted him to win the selections if it weren't Farmaajo or Xasan Kheyre. He is a decent person, and I think why he keeps failing at the selections is that masuqmaasuqa kuma dheeraado, unlike Xasan oo ah tuug aanan naxeynin.

Farxaan Xiddig oo booqday Laascaanood: