Having few lost souls shouting your name in Laascaanood or Boorama couldn't save Farmaajo's sinking ship. A life lesson for any cunning politician, invest your effort in places that can lend you a life line in your day of need.
HSM only needs to consolidate Mogadishu and surrounding regions. As Mogadishu alone can sustain his gov't expenses including army pay roll. Also If he manages to consolidate other HAG regions like GalMudug and HirShabeele, he will be in a much more powerful position come 2026.
JL's Ahmed Madoobe is the weakest link, not only is he in his 10th year in power, and has a lot of opposition inside his own region. But also Kenya will not be as the solid foreign power that was sustaining him as it where during Farmaajo's days. Ahmed Madoobe himself understands that fact and will try to keep a low profile as much as he can.
All these leaves Said Deni in a very difficult position.