Arafaat, Good arguments, but identity is central to Ethiopia's politics, and different governments since Melenik have found a way to exploit that. While you and others frame the current situation about the direction of Ethiopian politics and the nature of the future Ethiopian state, the reality is the past, present and the future of Ethiopian politics are the same, an oppressive centralized state that favors one group over others. That has been the case since Melenik. The Derg tried to take the country in a different direction, but eventually, even Mengiste was forced to use identity in order to recruit and fight the Tigrian and Eritrean rebels. This was despite his so-called nationalism. True, Ethiopians are not as primitive as we are in terms of transcending tribal politics, but the struggle of Tigrians dates back to the 1940s ( May–November 1943 Woyane Rebellion). Selassie sought the help of the British Royal Airforce to put down the rebellion. That rebellion was not necessarily about identity. It was indeed about autonomy. But the rebellion's core support was based on identity. So was the TPLF struggle of the 70s and 80s. In effect, the talk of secession become common those decades hence the formation of deceptive federalism and the inclusion of Article 39. The Tigrians considered themselves as Ethiopian as Amhara, but they understand the share size of their population means their influence will decrease tremendously. This is particularly evident if Ethiopia remains true to its nature of a centralized state favoring one group over others. We are not talking about a civic-minded citizenry that will elect politicians based on merits. The majority of Ethiopians will vote along tribal lines that is if they are allowed to vote. Either way, Tigrians will come short. The bitter experience of this last year has shown them what is in store. There is geopolitics in a play, no doubt, but that has its limits. No amount of American influence can stop a hyped ethnic war with so aggravated groups all of whom committed horrific crimes. The best American could hope for a settlement that favors no one and stops the country from exploding. Even then, the core issues will remain unresolved. If you think there is a way that satisfies groups, please share. Lastly, I wish no harm on anyone especially civilians. I have witnessed war. But horrific crimes have been committed in Ethiopia. These crimes will figure greatly into any settlement. Some nations might not be as forgiving as others. Furthermore, most ethnic groups have empowered extremists among them, from Fano, Oromo Qeerro, etc. Even worse, the PM himself asked the common people to arm themselves and labeled the junta as something to be eliminated. Amharas openly call for the extermination of Oromos and Tigrians. What I wish has no bearing on the reality on the ground. And I am under no illusion as to what an outright civil war means for the region. It will be a catastrophe of monumental proportion. Somalis will not be spared and we can end up worse than what we are now. All of this does not mean we should ignore the possibility of implosion and brutal ethnic wars.

Let’s stay with the facts 1. The west doesn’t care about which ethnicity the next PM will be from, they supported Abiy who is an Oromo with a Muslim father. Only Somali’s and some Herreri man Galbeedi had coffee with, seem to care about such nonsense, not understanding Ethiopian political dynamics and what is actually at stake here. 2. The issue that the West does care about is for Ethiopia not to become a ‘China’ like centralised, autocratic and nationalistic state with a planned economy dominated by state run and dominated companies and private sector, and that Ethiopia neither facilitates or enables the real China to gain greater access and inroad in to the wider region of Africa. 3.The TPLF have successfully managed to re-brand and sell themselves, to both the West and some opposition forces, as champions of a different vision of Ethiopia, with a ethno-centric decentralised form of governance in which much of the decision making would be on regional level, which logically would find appeal across the country, ethnic states and with opposition forces. 3. Everyone, including the west, knows that 30 years of brutal centralised and autocratic TPLF rule were quite the opposite of what they are selling us here. 4. But nevertheless do they find appeal and support in the west, and with other states like Egypt, and even support from some opposition forces like the OLA, as the TPLF have the political, military and financial leverage to put a horse in the game and it’s in their interest to challenge the very unappealing political direction of Abiy(see point nr.2), which coincides with the interest of those external and internal actors. 5. Despite the opportunities for wider political affinity and popular support to a decentralised Ethiopian state with much autonomy for the regions and various ethnic groups, no political forces from the Afar’s, Somali’s, Herrari’s and even Oromo’ have been able to form a force and influence the political discourse and present an alternative to Abiy’s model. 6. Most of the politicians and political parties from the Afar’s, Somali’s, Herrari’s and Oromo have been marked by a lack of a unified political vision or even discussion that could form the basis for a political strategy, or forming political alliances across clans and tribes in order to appeal to the masses. Example, look at Jig Jiga where neither ONLF, Mustafe Cagjar and other opposition can’t seem to change the political narrative beyond the usual and futile Reer Abdulle vs. Reer Abdalle nonsense. 7. This lack of an alternative political voice and force, made it quite easy for the current regime, to dominate the political landscape through arresting, intimidating, banning and incorporating the few relevant politicians, and selling uncontested its centralised and nationalistic vision that actually only a small minority of Ethiopians seem to support. 8. Coming back to the subject of the thread, unlike in Somali politics this war and conflict isn’t about the ethnicity of the PM and neither is the solution, it’s about the political direction of Ethiopia. And I am not sure if Somali’s have anything meaningful to contribute to that discussion and direction, as we can’t seem to be able to transcend our usual basic instincts of seeing everything (Ethiopia/Addis) burn (Che), cheerleading a tribe/clan to loot PM/Presidential seats as if they were camels (Galbeedi), ascribing every outcome to alien or western conspiracies (Duufaan), enjoy the Schadenfreude as the misfortunes of others gives us a sense of normality in our own failures (MMA), seeing lights and signs of recognition everywhere when there is not even a glimpse in the dark (Xaaji Xunjuf) or be so emotionally scarred to completely lose sight of the current reality and what is actually going today in the here and now (Khadafi).