ETHIOPIA--, A NATION IN CRISIS: II REBEL AT THE GATES OF ADDIS ABEBA 1 NOVEMBER 2021. A POLITCAL ANALYSIS. Its monday and I have the day off. While making coffe my habbit or addiction could not be tamed. While drinking my coffe the usall habit began, beginning with aljazeera and then local news and ofcourse the reuters and read the news that oromo fighters had caputed the critical highway t4 and are now 54 km from capital and in another twist of evens the TPLF are now capturing more amhara region. While the whole framwork news is biased and post-colonial in nature (talking about climate summit) and ignoring the huge developments in Ethiopia I felt obliged by fellow scholars and friends to finally write PART II ON THE DISSOLUTION OF ETHIOPA. BACKGROUND Ethiopia comromises of 5 main ethnic group, Amhara, Tigrayans, Oromo, Somalis and Afars. Ethiopia is an ancient christian and muslim nation. Indeed it was one of the first empires Aksum to accept Christianity and Islam came to ethipia before it advanced to Medina. A POSSIBLE DISSOLUTION OR A FAILED STATE IS NOW ON TIME TABLE. 6 or 7 years ago a during might of the Tigrayan regime I wrote calculated analysis based my knowlidge sociological aspects of Ethiopia was done by me. I dared to say that Ethiopia with its current etnic-federal constitutution would eventually lead to the downfall of the state. I received a lot of criticism, mainly from my ehhiopians friends who saw me as Somali irredentist wishing decline for them. They pointed the BNP growth of Ethiopia and with a smile said do not throw stones if your house own house is made of glass. My fellow Somalis also accused me of day dreaming, Indeed 30 years of civil strive had made the spirit of pan-somalism almost dead. Only one Somali scholar supported me in the live forum while 29 others rejected my ideas as youngsters wishes and far from reality. Ethiopia and vicious monstorus religious extremist Haile Selassie, who openly said in BBC in 1951 in a interview that they had no "muslims in Ethipia" while half of population is muslim. ' At that time Ethiopia was an Empire based on the amhara ethnicity and upon the orthodox chuch. The colonial empires gave parts of somali populated lands and Eritrea as "gift" to the monster Haile Selassie. The decline came when Mengistu, a fervent and devout communist abolished the religo-amhara based empire and declared a communist state where everyone would be equall. The orthodox church had no more powerr and ethnicity became a central issue. But even Mengistu failed to adress "question of nationalities and ethnicity". Mengistu knew if he opended that pandora box the writing on the wall would be DISSOLUTION. The national language continued to be amharic despite amharas only comprimising 20 perscent and oromos 30% A distant relative of mine by marriage who hails from the somali region of Ethiopia and who is now in his 80-ties told that they did not feel ethiopian during the 60-ties and all schools were taught in amharic. If someone wanted to make a career he had to take an amhara name. Assimilation was the way. He said we muslims in the east rejected this and those in the north Eritrean did the same. Mengistus and his refusal to adress this issue plummeted the nation into civil war based upon ethnicity. During the height of the war, TPLF, AFL, OLF , WSLF (ONLF) all the most importantly EPLF (Eritrean liberation front operated by scenes and by the late 80-ties Mengistus Amhara dominated army controlled only the cities). Mengistu was loosing the war in the north and the supply route from the red sea in Eritrea was main supply route to the nation. When communism was fading away and Moscow and cubans did not have time or the will or the strength to send weapons to Mengistu all the rebels united under the name EPRDF. The Eritreans with 1igrayans mounted and offensive and in that offensive named "the battle of afabet" the fate of Mengistu was sealed. His main army compomising ofcourse by Amhara officers faced the reality that 100 000 men being under seige. The tigrayans had cut the supply routes to the army from Addis and EPLF captured Massaw the port which Ethiopia relied upon. The Afars and the Somalis sucsessfully cut the last remaining supply route, the railroad track from Addis to Jabuuti. Once when that was done, the EPLF mached into capital, They then cordinated the TPLF (Tigrayan Liberations front) to uite all rebels under the name EPRDF. In a single month every non-amhara soldier deserted and the remaininh amhara soldiers went to Amhara region. Here comes the part where my Somali brothers will criticise me, While Somalias dictator knew his fate and when rebels were at the gates of Mogadishu he took the choice of arming clans supprting him, civilians, once arms are in the arms of civilians the outcome will be a failed state. Libya is anothe example. The western powers, despite of knowing and learning from their mistakes of Iraq bombed Libya and Ghaddafi flooded the public with arms to defend him. Today Libya is a failed state compromizing of militias with no political objective. Mengistu Xayle Mariam was a nationalist and he knew if armed Amharas to fight for him and making the whole war a war of ethnicity Ethiopia would be a failed state. Another aspect is that the western powers saw the ancient Christian Ethiopia as a the "civil part" of Africa and a a hidden meeting led by Jimmy carter and the EPRDF and Mengistu paved away for a peacefull power exchange. When the rebels were at the gates Mengistu orderd the police in Addis Abeba to take instructions "the fascists weyane" (weyane and galla ) hyeana is the racist slur against tigarayans galla is a slurword used against oromos. Eritrea declared inpendence We are in now 1991. Melez Zenawi the leader of the TPLF took charge and being a extreme hoxaist communist during his days of as a rebel he fashioned himself as social democrat. But he did one thing that no one, and i will say it again, NO ONE EVER HAD DONE BEFORE. With Eritrea gone, some Tigrayans wanted to dismantle the empire, Oromos wanted out, Somalis wanted out, no one execpt the Amharas who had a priveliged status wanted to keep Ethipia. Meles did an act no one had before. He tackled the issue of ethnicity and imitated the ethnic-federalism of Yoguslavia and even stipulated in the constitution of Ethiopia in article 39 that every ethnic region had the right of leave. The ethnic federalism created a renessceanse of oromo nationalism. The cushitic group of Oromos in Shewa the orthodox christian oromos promoated nationalism and retook old oromo names. After Meles Zenawi died the oromo rised up and the TPLF who were more afrad ffrom the amhara gave away to a security agent from the oromo group, Abey Ahmed. He made peace with Eritrea, shocking the TPLF and released all political prisoners, He received a nobel peace price but according to the OLA under same time time he he was freeing prisoners he was arresting Jawar Ahmed a fellow oromo natonalist and lemma megersa another fellow oromo nationalist. He cracked down on those who wanted to keep the ethnic frederalism. He made a state blockade against the Tigrayan region. With starvation the TPLF launched an attack thus the the war began. WHAT HAPPENING NOW? WHAT WILL THE FUTURE BRING? While the US is on decline and oil has now become a non strategic goal the horn of africa with the read sea has now become a second thing. Alternative energy sources as fisher oil, solar etc and rise of China have made the sea China more important. Abey Ahmed wants to abolish the the ethnic-federalism and impose a central state. aka an amhara state. centered state. The war took a dramatic scene when the battle hardened TPLF regrouped the took Mekelle and the military offensive became more dangerous when an ofshoot of Oromo liberation front-West aounced an alliance. Addis Abeba lies deep in oromo lands. Abey Ahmed lost his support when he tried to crush the oromo seperatists. It was to late. Oromo seperatists had infiltrated the state and became the local polceman, military etc The news that OLF-W are now within 53 km from Addis Abeba is very much disturbing. Africa needs peace. Its impertative for Abey Ahmed to realise that a peacefull dissulution and referefendum is needed to correct historical in justice. If Eritrea could leave the empire why should not Oromiya or Somali region (Ogaden region) Afar region? POSSIBLE INTERVENTIONS. With dramatic news of rebels being in 53 km in the vicinity of the capital Addis Abeba and cordinating the offensive with the TPLF, Abey Ahmed will be forced to negotiate a settlement and key demand from the TPLF. The tigrayans and oromos will not make the same mistake that Meles made for them. This time the settlement will include calls for referendum of an E-xit. Either you remain or indpendence.