I fully agree with you. Che regarding the corruption but I would say that PL and SL are bastion of Salafism in Somalia rather then southern Somalia. PL would fall as they were close to falling when the islamic courts union turned their eyes on PL by using tribes from PL. It was only the failed and miserable invasion of the TPLF that saved PL. Butin order for us to make a good analysis its imperative that we really recognise the downfall of traditional Islam and how Somalis embraced Wahabism/Salafism. Who could blame them? Pan-Somalism failed, communism failed, the state collapsed. They embraced this ideology that was first introduced to Somalia by 50-ties mainly wahabism during the 90-ties.
I am amazed and dazzled how we somalis have have not seen the biggest change in the somali society. If Abyssinia is defined per say as orthodox christians as they are , Somalis were before the civil war identified as Shafite muslims with sunni qaaadariya dariiqa. We had religous centres in southern Somalia settlements where a spiritual studet from furtherst Dhagaxbuur (Soomali galbeed) would come and settle and learn for free for example in Alle ha u naxariisto Macalin Nuur Siyaads religous center or Sheekh Suufis center in Costal Xamwarwayne and settlements in baardheere for free.
The semi-nomadic tribes of southern Somalia would give food to these religous centers that would within 7 years produce learned masters in linguistics /cilmul-balaagha, mantaq /logic, fiqh (shafite) and the path to cleanse your inner soul sufism (dariiqada) and ofcourse Aqiida (ashaacira).
While traditional sunni islam is still dominant among southern Somalis its n a decline in PL and SL. All you see is an extreme cultish ofshoot of the rabiiciyada, nick named "timo waynta".
People in those areas were even groomed mentally in a post-colonial way to view traditional islam as "being backward, shirk, etc". I do not want to make the topic a religious but when Umul wanted to visit mogadishu people openly demonstrated against him holding his religious sermons and viewed as a wolf in a sheep clothes.
They said he was no different from al-shabaab. Indeed he was the one who made mass-tafkfir and legitimised the so called "jihad" against the TFG president Cabdullahu Yuusuf Alle ha u naxariisto.
During a Q:A on a Somali TV-channel a wise religous somali man asked one of these religious scholars why they declared a "jihad" on President Cabdullahi Yuusuf on the premise of foreign forces being present in Somalia and then changed their mind when another president took over despite that nothing on the ground changed..
The poor old Ictisaam member had no answer and qouted random stuff and said "we see things in a new way". The questioner then said you said xxx are you ready openly to take back those statements?. The religious old man had no answer. Indeed how could he?. He was exposed for what he was, a wolf in a sheeps clothes. The canadian fellow who is a traditionalist religious scholar Shaykh Kishki exposed these people.
As I said before the west is in decline, weather we like it or not Mogadishu is under a siege. According a relative of mine of who is a member of the government Farmaajo failed to follow the "international community" aka the Wests plan for the stabilisation of Somalia.
Farmaajo is a master of playing on peoples emotions and made himself as victim a foreign plot but the truth is that he was a man who never understood how deeply the somali society had fractured. His nostalgia for pre 91 is where he began and he surrounded himself with advisors from his uncle who are now in their late 70!.
The so called opposition Cabdi shakuur and Sheekh Shariif love to use the tribal card but they themselves can travel by car to ceelasha biyaha. They themselves are in denial. Just like how everyone in Afghanistan was in denial, with the ethnic Tajib Abdullah Abdulllah engaging in a vicious campaign in order to get something so are the somalis doing. Its a zero sum way of doing politics.
Relative of mine who belongs to this salafi business elite of Mogadishu says the economical judicial parts of al-shabaab is so disciplined that if the know if you import a single Toyota car and demand a tax on it, a tax much more smaller then the governments fee. He said they mad the fee much more smaller in order to appease the business elite and turn them their side against the government.
Amisom has now been in Somalia for 15 years and the signals above is that the somali government has to fight for themselves. Amisom does not conduct any military engagements. A general and a relative of mine within Somali national Army who is in his late 60-ties said to me "The goal of Amisom is not to eliminate Al-shabaab, they are only here in Mogadishu in order to stop Al-shabaab from capturing the capital".
I did not take his statement to be serious but then when I came home, It mad sense. Amisom fought hard to liberate Mogadishu during Sheekh Shariifs time and then stopped. The white people established bases where apartheid rules are enforced. Only white people who feast upon conflicts and various NGOs are their.
We somalis tend to follow emotions. The gang leader of Al-shabaab is probably following the events of Afghanistan very closely. If he openly disavows Al-qaeda and changes his tunes to a nationalistic one, we might the see the west engaging them. I doubt this scenario but it could happen. Would Amisom withdraw Baladwayne, Baidawa Kismaayo would fall, and Mogadishu would probably fall after a prolonged siege,