While dramatic scenes were unfolding within 2 weeks, seeing the advancement of the disciplined dhaalebaan, capturing city after city a friend of mine, a high ranking official within Somali government called me. While drinking a cup of qaxwo I noticed that the official was surprised how the "west" had failed the notorious corrupt afghan government. I like to use metaphors, It makes your arguments much more understandable and comical. I said to him "hey, if your as a light 70 kg man engage in a boxing match with Mike Tyson" for 20 years you will be beaten every time. But everytime you get knocked off you learn to be strong. If Mike Tyson then says "adios but you will be fighting women like man in my replacement" What do you think will happen? Thats exactly what happened in Afghanistan. Indeed USA was humiliated and defeated in Afghanistan. I still do remember 9/11 when Mullah Omar the deceased leader of the Dhaaliban was asked why war was looming in the air. He said something in the line of " we asked the americans of proof but they refused to talk to us, if they wage of war we will win". The BBC journalist asked in a mocking way "how will you defeat a great power as USA". He said " The greatest power is god, and if god is with us we will defeat them just as we did with the russians". Coming back to the issue, the high ranking Somali official was reminded by me that realpolitik determines US-intrests. When Somali pirates captured the largest Saudi oil vessel it shook the market and every nation on earth sent their vessels to the read sea to fend of "Somali pirates". What they really wanted was of course to train and keep the vital trade route open. The piracy died down but chinese vessels from djabouti is still roaming in Somali seas, probably in company with large vaacum fishing vessels. They did the same in Gambia and now its Somalias turn?. So what about our murderous terrorist local lads, dubbed arsenal or al shabaab by frightended Somalis? While the Deobandi Dhaaliban never abandoned the the sunnni xanafi madhab and the naqshbandi sufi tariiqa, and sunni maturidi creed our local lads pledged loyalty to a shady arab terrorist al-qaeda whose creed ultimately comes from salafism. On that fatefull day they sealed their fate? How can you engage with organisation that believes in a never ending war as a part of the faith.? Bombing hotels and even somali muslim scholars. I went to Somalia in 2019, after 30 years of exile and was shocked by the cultural damage that the civil war had inflicted upon us. High rising buildings with so called 5 high stars hotels. While exeting the hotel goats roam free in the city and the improvised IDPS are every where. Anyways, less then 50 km away or 30 km away I was adviced not to go to Ceelasha biyaha, Al-shabaab were in full controll. The road from Mogadishu to Kismayu is controlled by the murderous gang. The same thing applies to Mogadishu to Baidoa. The so called "presidents of the regions" have to take a helicopter to mogadishu in ordet to attend meetings in Mogadishu? Just as the dhaaleeban, Al-shabaab has its own shadow government, that taxes, and judges and executes its order in a brutal and efficent way while the Somali court system simply depends on bribes,. Property problems are now best solved by al-shabaab. While Farmaajo or the so called "opposition" are hacking each others time and wasting time the murderous gang of mobsters Al-shabaab that claims to be fighting for Islam while they are indeed khwaarij or the worst of them all. Friends. America is in decline, it simply doesnt have the time or the money. The whole "somali federal government" is project financed by the the west. I said jokingly to the my friend once that money dries out dont be a person thats going to cling on the wing of airplance as the afghans did. Somalia is not Afghanistan, But the their are striking similarities Two nations that has seen civil war for 30 years and a generation that grew up in seeing no institutions. The Somali national army is notoriously corrupt and clan aligned while al-shabaab are disciplined The terrorists wahaaabiyada are biding their time, once the money dries out I really do believe Mogadishu could be in danger, I do not want be pessimistic but while Xassan shaykh was fighting for finding concensus and nation building Farmaajo cooking up sixir with afwerqi and Abey Amxaaro and how to grab on to power and install loyalists in the regions. He had the massive support in Mogadishu but eroded that. I dont want to be pessemistic but lets see how things go. Maybe Al-shabaab will see their fatal mistake in aligning themselves with Al-qaeda and their "mystical leader" cuts the ties to the Al-qaeda and copies the Taliban formula we might see and end to the Federal democratic government of Somalia and see The Islamic emirate of Somalia? Dark clouds are gaining the upper hand in the horn of africa, ethiopia is not dissolving, IT HAS allready disolved and is in civil war. Ilaahay 5 soomalida ha isku keeno! dalkeena iyo dadkeena cadowga ha ka haayo. Shimee aa la fahmaa nabad in ey dan noo tahay! Yaabeeeyay!

Tribal in nature, fragile corrupt state. Che, Its much more easier to discard facts on the table then actually confront them. Somalia 1 at corruption, 2 was afghanistan, both had fragile governments that had to be boosted by foreign troops. I even going to more dramatic and claim that Mogadishu is under seige.