Both Gheelle and Musaveni dump their disgruntled officers and soldiers to Somalia. They usually stay few years and by the time they come back , they might even quit the army and live comfortably.
The average Djibouti soldier earns between 40 to 50,000 Djibouti Francs. It is about $300 dollars. If they spent two years in Hiiraan they would gross between $900-1200 dollars a month while their salary in Djibouti is accumulated.
The main point is if the Somali people support their government and their freedom, neither IGAd or EU would defeat Somalia.
Remember these bureaucrats in Nairobi are mostly weak minded people who use manipulation and pressure to gain compliance, and if you stand up to them, they will fold. Don't buy president Biden and the weak democrat's barking. It was Obama who lost Crimea and Donbass region in Ukraine, then Putin did doubled down and took Syria while the Kenyan guy was talking about red lines.
Even last weak , despite the tough talk, they backed down on Ukraine and cancelled the ships they supposed to send.
It is up to Farmaajo. He has the full support of the super majority of the Somali people, and by insisting on one man one vote, he is on stronger ground.