Last weekend I sat down with one of local friend of mine who came back from Mogadishu after spending there few months. It was a long conversation , but the title of this article summarizes the events taking place in Mogadishu these days. Our conversation centered mostly about the events surrounding after February 8, when the term of the current government ended. As we are all aware, the opposition threatened to expel the president from Villa Somalia through illegal means by deploying general Indha Cadde and his militia and violent demonstrations. According to my friend , all opposition schemes and plans failed due to some unsormantble realties on the ground. He pointed out three major things for their failure: The people, the security and the parliament. The people of Mogadishu. He said the people of the capital overwhelmingly support the current government. He told me a discussion he had with one of the lieutenants of the leading candidates. This chief adviser said, " the most important question that we are grabbling almost every day is how we lost the public of Mogadishu and how to get back them from Farmaajo" ( Waagi beryaba waxaan ku fikirnaa sidii aanu shacabka uga soo ceshan lahayn Faramajo welina kuma aanan guulaysan). While there were some residual support for the opposition in the early days before February 8, it seems enthusiasm for hostile or eager public for the opposition has dried up. He said in order to galvanize or organize people for demonstration against Farmaajo, the opposition is paying internally displaced people in Mogadishu $8 dollars per person. In order to oust a leader or create the so called uprising the opposition was claiming, one must have the support of the larger public. Thus an opposition without significant public support will not succeed. He said if you want to see eager people willing for fight just look what is taking place in Burma (Mynamar). The military and the public service. According to this gentleman, the national and local security enforcement apparatus and particularly the military are 100% support the current government. He said, Somali military members are paid almost close to $300 dollars a month and each one of them receives their salary before the end of the month. He told me that he walked to the soldiers manning the check points and asked them personally about their pay and each one of them told him how satisficed they were with their salary. He said that during the Hassan Sheikh administration, soldiers were paid $100 dollars a month and sometimes they used to miss the payments. He said at one point president Hassan threatened to fire them and replace them with others if they keep complaining. He said because of the nature of the Turkish army training these young men have high level of discipline and work ethic. I asked him about the public service and their moral. He said he met a financial or tax department executive hired by Hassan Sheikh during his term. He was appointed to collect hundreds of thousands of dollars a month and was given a $300 dollar a month salary. The man said, " I was collecting millions of dollars a month and I was given a small salary to feed my families, thus they encouraged me indirectly to help my self". " when Farmaajo was elected, they increased my salary to $1000 dollars a month and instructed me to account every dollar that was collected". he continued and said, " I am very happy and do not have to rely anymore on corruption while earning an honest living" . The parliament. In fact, this observer and I both agreed that the opposition within the parliament is very insignificant at this stage and many are not willing to wreck the boat for minor reasons. During the debate last week, those who were trying to disrupt couldn't even reach two dozen people. So, according to this observer the opposition have unsurmountable task ahead of them. He said , other than elections, the opposition has no chance at al to disrupt the current administration or even to obstruct an extension. He said both the people, the army and the parliament fully support the administration. I asked him the nature of the opposition, their composition and their end game. He said the opposition could be divided in four groups. First the hardliners: former presidents Hassan Sheikh, Shariif Ahmed and C/raxman C/shakuur. He said these are die hard opposition members who are hell bent to out Farmaajo and are willing to use any means necessary to achieve that goal, including public demonstration and uprising. The second group is : Dahir M. Geele. C/naasir, and C/qadir Cosoble. He said, while this group are opposed Farmaajo, they do not support violent public demonstration. They worry about the effects of Covid -19 and the danger of Al-shabaab taking advantage of the situation. So, he described them as moderate opposition who oppose any public destruction or instability caused by their actions. The third group is: Mohamed A. Gandhi, Halane and Shariif Hassan (Shariif the blade) . This group are unhappy and they feel marginalized by the government and opposition. As we remember, when premier Rooble was discussing the how to proceed and manage the so-called peaceful demonstrations of the opposition , he mainly met the HAG members of the opposition. So, according to him, these three guys are probably disgruntled and are bitter by sensing tribal mechanizations of the HAG. The fourth group or I should say the fourth guy is no other than former premier Khayre. Khayre waa keligii dirir. He said Khayre is managing his campaign by himself and others do not trust him. He said that due to his personal money, he thinks he could win some votes. I told him that if Hassan Sheikh as former president and statesman , if he galvanizes all of the opposition around him, he could certainly reach the second round and win enough votes. He said while Hassan sheikh is a formidable candidate, his chances of winning have been reduced due to open secret in Mogadishu that by voting to Hassan Sheikh , you would be electing a government led by Hassan sheikh, premier C/laahi Deni and Ahmed Modoobe, and that scenario is difficult to swallow for many groups. I conclude by saying since there are no other means to oust Farmaajo, let us all go for the election. And by the way, he said, " Farmaajo will win with landslide".

Apophis, We are proud of our home towns and we hail from. Although unemployment is 70% in Awdal just like most of Somaliland, it is relatively peaceful at the moment. And peace, in the sense of the word, doesn't mean the absence of war. Peace is a piece of mind without worry and believing you achieved and settled for good. In that part of Somalia, no one knows when things will change including the currency. We are all wailing for Somaliweyn including those in Hargeisa. So, we have stakes in Mogadishu. At the same time some us had spend many years in Mogadishu and we still have in our memory how good " Xamar Cadde" was in the old good days. There is also a believe that if Mogadishu and south Somali political problems settled for good , even those us in the north might achieve more that what we did for 30 years. Every time you keep raising about laangaab and having numbers. I told you that I have enough space and people to participate the Somali family debate, although I believe that one must achieve his own dreams without relying a tribal grouping. Ma rabo nimanka aan tolka iyo walaalaha nahay ee OG in aan meel uga dhaco awgaa, laakiin weli ma hayo Tuulo aad maamusho oo Soomaali ka taliso mid gumeysi dusha kaa illaaliyo mooyaane. . Hase ahaatee, baadhitaan badan ka dib waxaan rumaysnahay in beeshu Jubbada dhexe, Jubbada Hoose iyo Bakoolba joogto lixdameeyadiina ka soo geli jireen. Do not get abscessed with Ahmed Madoobe. He has been ruling the Jubba for 10 years and didn't even build a two room house for school or hospital. After these statements, I want to teach you something about each man's ability and talent without relying tribes. When the great Darwiish landed in Berbera circa 1899, he was a lone man(isagoo baakooraad laad laadinaya ayuu Berbera ka soo degay). And that great hero had created the movement that fought the British for 20 years. His clansmen were as far away as iimey and Godey, yet everyone from Puntland to Hiiraan , Bebera feared him. Real men make history not tribes. Meel ku qoro. Have you heard a man called Fahad Yaasiin, who everyone is saying he is the real boss of Somalia these days?. He is a member of the so called 0.5, yet he earned that position because of his own ability. Dhiisi baad moodaa markuu afka kuu soo dhaweynaye waxa uu dhaaranayaa waa dhuuni raacdeysi e Dhuunta bir laga geli muxuu nooga dhiman waayey. Gabaygan lixdameeyadii baa loo tiriyey