Does anyone has any idea how to tame and calm down an angry opposition which not only has the means to make your life difficult but also has logistical advantage and vast land to organize?. certainly not Muuse Biixi , an angry man who want verbally to answer anyone who says something bad is not one of them. He even have people who monitor social media and persecute those who are bold enough to criticize the dear leader.
Ahmed Siilaanyo became a leader and came up with new ways of doing things in order to appease and reward for those who supported him. He quadrupled the salaries of ministers and members of parliament; he make sure to satisfy almost every clan member of SNM Habro regardless of those who voted for him or not. By opening the cash , people cursed Rayaale by hiding all this cash follow from them ( Waar ma waxanoo lacaga oo qasnada ku jirtay ayuu naga qarinayey). Little did they knew that the fair and free election conducted by the Rayaale administration had finally brought a lot of cash from donors and Siilaanyo decided to distribute the cash. Even fired ministers kept their salary and the Landcruiser they drove. Millions dollars that that supposed to bring water to Hargeisa were looted, but everyone was happy.
When those from Awdal agitated, he sent emissaries from the region to calm down the waters and personally visited Awdal constantly sitting among the people. When Suldaan wabar came to the border with few men to make trouble, he sent Wabar's cousin Libaax Rayaale to lead the army in Quljeed. Sool and Khaatumo were either bribed , courted or confronted in a way that eventually led to peace talks with Cali Khaliif. The opposition party members from West Burco even got the lions share of the cabinet including the interior minister .Despite the corruption and looting of the public purse , there was tribal harmony among the Habro.
People tolerated the misdeeds and corruptions of Ahmed Siilaanyo administration due to certain characters of Siilaanyo. Since he was the longest SNM leader who led the tribe , he was given certain gratitude. Also, his cognitive illness which was apparent to everyone including the opposition has allowed him to make mistakes . His chiefs of staffs were always running the show while Siiaalnyo assumed an open door policy that allowed him to meet everyone. when mistakes do happen, it was blamed on his aides.
Yet, among the opposition and the public in general , there was a gentleman's agreement that said: Let the old man finish his term and retire with dignity. one opposition leader who visited Canada openly said: We can't put down someone due to his illness ( Waar odayga ma xanuun baanu ku caynaa).
The Kulmiye fools including Muuse Biixi who were agitating for power had forgot that the tolerance for corruption and other misdeeds in their party was possible because people had the expectations of change after the election.. For the last years of the Siilaanyo administration, Biixi even put his men in the cabinet and changed the balance of power.
Biixi didn't realize that not only he got a restless opposition but also the wrath of the public who were patient with the misdeeds of his party for seven years. For a normal leader, the most important moves should be to reduce the anger of the opposition and reduce tension in the fault line regions. There were already politically motivated tribal clashes in Sanaag during Siilaayo's reign and that issue could get ugly if the Jeegaan members were put in change of the de-escalation. A wise leader would have reduced the tension by appointing heavy weight ministers that were above the tribal stamps. He didn't realize that due to corruption and rampant nepotism the system is fragile and can't accept anymore unnecessary pressure and tribal patronage. Biixi didn't read the writing in the wall or he lives in different reality than most people.
Another way to defuse the hostility is to appoint the pro government members of the opposition clans and empower them to bring peace in their regions. Give them confidence and credibility to mitigate the problem. The GX community initially was given the finance and health care ministries which are one of the main cabinet portfolios . After the opposition clans agitated and the media attacked him for something or another, he doubled down and dismissed those two and exchanged with his own clan. He used and dismissed Samatar after the campaign, and marginalized the vice president who brought him 40,000 votes from Awdal.
Furthermore, he thinks he can crush the opposition by using military force. Sanaag which is one of the largest provinces of the 18 Somali regions is a third of the Somaliland land mass. No army can occupy permanently that kind of huge land. Tribal harmony is must for peace to reign.
Also, Biixi, to his credit, is trying to reduce public money theft among government ministries and agencies. The laissez faire economic system that allowed business people to import everything without regulation is also been securitized by the government. Furthermore, the unearned material gains people accustomed are no longer there under the Biixi government. Hungry tribes watching others eat is unaccepted. In other words, the tribal agreement system that allowed everyone to loot and eat at the expense of institution and law had finally caught Somaliland. You rip what you sow.
If you nurture the tribal beast system without check it will finally consume you. Suddenly the ruling sub clan becomes the most noble, numerical and powerful with false boastings.Those who became rich of the looting and the patronage feel entitled of the favors given by the leaders. It happened before and it is happening now. The OG community empowered and lifted by Siyaad Barre within the Somali military in the eighties , had risen up and decided to join the rebels. Having risen to the top and seeing the power close, they thought to depose their patron. The opposition members of the Jesus clan in Djibouti had replaced the native Djiboutian and other clans both in public service, cabinet and military. When they were replacing other clans like Awdalites and native Djiboutian , they never felt any injustice or regret. They finally decided to challenge the man who made them--Cumar Ghelleh. Since they were no one before him, he crushed them . Now it is inter-clan warfare, and the cry of the opposition is music tp the ears of many people.
Decades of corruption , nepotism, looting and disregard of the rule of law has finally catch up to Biixi and Somaliland. In the nineteen sixties every Somali traveled to Mogadishu to gain an earned material gain without working . Eventually that system gave way for the military to take over. The same thing goes today in Mogadishu and Hargeisa. Despite the bullets and bombs flying, Somali elites go to Mogadishu to earn six figure salary from the NGO's. while doing almost nothing. Thousands of unemployed politicians are sipping tea in Hargeisa hotels waiting for the few assignments. Muuse can't continue with old system of bribing everyone with their own money, and can not manage a belt tightening system while hungry tribes agitate. Damn if you do and damn if you don't.
Just like in Mogadishu the government and the opposition are joining forces with rival rich gulf monarchs. While Biixi is courting the UAE, the Wadani opposition is flirting with Qatar. Reports indicate that Sanaag small ports, Laasqoray and Maydh could be financed by Qatar and others. arms might even follow the ports. Furthermore, no one is backing down. Biixi want to keep these tensions until the parliamentary elections take place. Conflicts among clans always bring badly needed votes for the ruling Kulmiye. Despite their alliance of certain groups leaders must act for the larger interest of the people. When Gabiley misfits attacked Seemaal villagers while sleeping, Siilaanyo put his foot down and even arrested ministers while firing the army chief ( Waar ma aniga oo hadda uun kursiga ku fadhiisayay ayaad dagaal igu kiciseen ayuu yidhi).
Folks , this a Mexican standoff. Unless the Sixth community comes up with new ideas expect the unforeseen confrontations. Already accusations of treason and other allegations are flying around.